UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Xionan Yan (10/1) PICKS

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lemartinsports

Joined
Jan 4, 2022
Messages
11,848
feel like this is a main event you all would like lol
the amazing mackenzie dern is taking the octagon with yan xionan this saturday. prelims will begin @ 4pm et, and the main card at 7pm et


dern has juiced UFC Odds right now at -230 and Yan +180 (Bovada), and i'm not surprised dern is favored given her elite BJJ skills.

i will be posting picks throughout the week for this card, but lets start off with a first look for this main event:

 

lemartinsports

Joined
Jan 4, 2022
Messages
11,848
Mmkay I’m gunna be dropping in some picks of mine for the main card:

Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan
Dern has a very strong background in BJJ, so her submission skills have been her forte over striking. I will say though her striking has definitely improved over the years. Once she gets her opponents in the mat, she gets crafty with armbars, kneebars, etc. Yan is definitely going to want to keep this fight standing. She has a strong chin and nasty boxing skills. If she keeps dern at bay and controls the fight, then she can be an incredibly valuable underdog. The only issue is yan doesn’t like to stay at bay…she wants to get in and attack which may set her up for failure if she leaves any openings against Dern. She needs to be smart. For me, with derns bjj skils and level of experience, i give her the edge. The current ufc odds are Dern -230, Yan +185. You could throw dern into a parlay or grab the mma prop dern by submission -121 (Bovada)

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Don Shainis
Yusuff is an exceptional athlete with top cardio. He moves swiftly on the balls of his feet and keeps a high guard with a high output. Impressively, he absorbs a much lower amount of strikes (5.22 significant strikes landed per minute vs. 3.63 dog strikes absorbed p/min). Shainis is a finisher - his last three fights were knockout victories over Brice Picaud, Cody Pfister, and Jay Ellis. Both fighters are finishers but one will be able to survive longer - Yusuff. His chin, agility, and cardio will outclass Shainis. Now, the odds on Yusuff are incredibly juices (-1000 at Bovada). Take the map prop Yusuff by T/ko or dq -200 - honestly not a bad little parlay piece with dern -230…+115 at Bovada
 

lemartinsports

Joined
Jan 4, 2022
Messages
11,848
preliminary card pick:

Krysztof Jotko vs. Brendan Allen

Jotko is a very skilled kickboxer that’s light on his feet and has volume in his striking. He moves well around the cage and his cardio is in shape. This is most likely why he is favored -120 at your top-rated sportsbooks and Allen is the +100 underdog. As technical of a fighter he is, we can not underestimate the well-rounded skills behind Allen. He has fight finishing abilities but he often makes poor decisions which could lead to him being finished. Allen, like Jotko, has great cardio and has technical striking. His grappling is what gives him an edge for me. If he is capable of backing Jotko up against the cage, work in the clinch, and even switch levels, then this is his fight. I do like the value behind Brendan Allen in this fight and have Allen even at Bovada
 
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