UFC Vegas 61 Co-Main Event: Brown vs. Trinaldo Predictions, Odds and Pick

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Randy Brown of Jamaica reacts against Mickey Gall in their welterweight bout during the UFC 217 event. Mike Stobe/Getty Images/AFP.

The UFC returns to Vegas for a talent-stacked Fight Night event inside the Apex. Welterweight contenders will throw down in the co-main event of the evening, and we’re supplementing all your wagering needs.

Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at Randy Brown vs. Francisco Trinaldo, including the updated UFC odds and our free expert betting picks, predictions, and analysis.

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Randy Brown vs. Francisco Trinaldo

Welterweight Co-Main Event Bout

Saturday, October 1, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at UFC Apex

Randy “Rudeboy” Brown

  • Pro MMA Record: (15-4-0) (6 KOs, 5 submissions, 4 decisions)
  • Age: 32
  • Height: 6'3"
  • Reach: 78.0"
  • Training Out Of: Budokan MMA Academy
  • Origin Fighting Style: Boxing

Boasting a 4-1 record from his previous five professional MMA bouts, “Rudeboy” Randy Brown is projecting a level of evolution that any martial enthusiast can appreciate as he climbs the UFC welterweight rankings with a confidence level that’s in unison.

From humble beginnings, Brown endured a difficult childhood when his father was convicted and given multiple life sentences. However, this didn’t prevent him from following his dreams, a dream that began in the boxing ring way back in 2005.

Brown's Road and Future

Aged 19, Brown converted his striking skills into the cage and began his journey in the world of mixed martial arts.

Following six amateur MMA bouts, Brown turned pro, and the rest was history. With a 7-0 undefeated record and a mere two years of pro experience, the UFC came calling, and he’s been a valued competitor at 170lbs ever since.

Brown is one ranking position (#16) away from breaking the UFC’s top-15 rankings. Now, with age and experience on his side, the 32-year-old Jamaican representative is looking to make a statement versus a UFC veteran.

Randy Brown Best Available Odds: ML (-305) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)


Francisco Trinaldo

  • Pro MMA Record: (28-8-0) (10 KOs, 5 submissions, 14 decisions)
  • Age: 44
  • Height: 5'9"
  • Reach: 70.0"
  • Training Out of: Evolucao & Constructor Team
  • Origin Fighting Style: Kickboxing

For the last decade, Francisco Trinaldo has been a staple amongst the UFC roster pool, competing in multiple weight classes from middleweight to lightweight to welterweight.

The Brazilian fan favorite has victories over notable names such as:

  • Paul Felder
  • Ross Pearson
  • Bobby Green
  • Dwight Grant
  • Danny Roberts

Trinaldo began his combat career as a professional kickboxer over twenty years ago. With a transition to MMA and more than two decades of fighting experience, the 44-year-old isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.

After consecutive victories over significantly younger competitors and a 5-1 record in his previous six UFC bouts, underestimating Trinaldo because of his age is no longer an option.

Francisco Trinaldo Odds: (+270) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)


UFC Vegas 61: Brown vs. Trinaldo Breakdown and Analysis

Brown Fight Style and How Can Brown Beat Trinaldo?

The length and frame of Randy Brown will give him a considerable advantage versus the 5-foot-8 stature of Trinaldo.

So long as he doesn’t position himself inside the pocket against Trinaldo’s power, it’s Brown’s fight to lose.

Brown is on an opposite trajectory to Trinaldo, but he doesn’t want to get overconfident against the savvy veteran.

On occasions, you’ll notice Brown lowering his stance on entries to strikes or faints, and this isn’t a critical approach versus such a smaller opponent.

Trinaldo’s Fight Style and How Can Trinaldo Beat Brown?

Trinaldo is a former kickboxer, but his kicking days are behind him.

Kicks drain the energy of the most conditioned of fighters, so it’s out of the game plan for the Brazilian who tends to box his way to victory in recent years.

The underdog will be forced to push himself inside the range of Brown throughout all three rounds, which could become tedious versus Brown's notable head movement and defensive attributes.


Brown vs. Trinaldo: Betting Picks and UFC Vegas 61 Odds

The available odds at top-rated sportsbooks heavily favor Brown with a -305 moneyline. And although I do believe Brown is the rightful favorite, I cannot support this price.

Brown will need to be a tactician in this fight, and I don’t expect a killer instinct to unravel. In addition, Trinaldo has a durability that’s seen him avoid a knockout stoppage in ten years of competing for the UFC.

For these reasons, the Over 2 ½ rounds is a UFC Vegas 61 betting pick I can support and feel a higher level of confidence with than anything else on the board.

UFC Pick: Over 2 ½ Rounds (-145) [1.45u to Win 1u] at Heritage Sports

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Over 2 ½ Rounds (-145)
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UFC Vegas 61 Main Card and Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.