locksnonstop
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2022
- Messages
- 37
| I'm advising my players to take Boise St +2.5 against Space Force on Saturday. Space Force is (supposedly) the top rushing offense in FBS, averaging almost 360 yards per game on the ground. They seem to have their triple option shtick humming harder than a Tijuana h0oker with a cartel Glock to her head. But that rushing number is somewhat of a skewed statistic. It's a bit rich, considering the level of competition that they've faced. Are they really a better running team than the likes of Ole Miss, Kansas St, or Michigan...who are also in the top 10 category when it comes to total rushing? Obviously, the answer is "no". My point is this...they might be getting some undeserved brownie points from Vegas. And that misconception has seeped it's way into this line, creating some extra value on the visitor. Speaking of the visitor, Boise is the first test on Space Force's schedule that offers any type of a respectable rush defense. These kids are schooled. And they know how to wrap up. More in-depth: Containing this triple option attack will be a heady task. A chess match. And at more than midway thru the season, this is about the time when freshman become sophomores and sophomores become juniors. An extra month of maturity and poise is paramount when dealing with something as annoying as this scheme. If this spot occurred 3 or 4 weeks ago, I might not be as enthusiastic about banging Boise. Internally: "Defense travels. And oddsmakers still, after all these years, over-blow a visiting team's disadvantage at Denver altitude. That accounts for at least half a point of slosh in this number. I know how Avalos' team practices on both sides of the ball. He's got them conditioned at a military academy level themselves. But don't get greedy with the +120. Take the points." LocksNonStop |
