Bet Hunter said:
<p>Single</p>
<p>1. A. Montanes - G. MULLER 2 AH + 2.5 games 1.77 V<br />
ATP Estoril tennis<br />
1Xbet<br />
30/04/15 17:30<br />
The flat rate 1j Possible winnings: 1,77j<br />
The Kelly 1j Possible winnings: 1,77j</p>
<p>Double</p>
<p>2. AA GENT - ANDERLECHT 2 AH + 1 1.30 return<br />
Jupiler League1 20:30<br />
Rayo Vallecano - VALENCIA 2 D N B 1.41 return<br />
La Liga<br />
30/04/15 20:00</p>
<p>1.83 return<br />
Bet365</p>
<p>The flat rate 1j Possible winnings: 1,83j<br />
The Kelly 1j Possible winnings: 1,83j</p>
Balance March-April 2015
flat st.
the sum of each game are saved 18 j
sum without conjunction. 15
won 8
returns 3
lost 6
the rate of 15
15.53 payment
0.53 profit
yield 3.53%
53.33% efficacy
kelly
the sum of each game are saved 26.9 j
sum without conjunction. 22.9
won 14.8
returns 4
Lost 8.1
rates of 22.9
25.57 payment
2.67 profit
yield 11.65%
effectiveness 64.62%
The balance of the game after 6 months (from September 27, 2014 to April 30, 2015)
100j capital at 1j as a basic rate for flat rate system game:
flat st.
the sum of each game are saved 177.82
sum without conjunction. 152.21
93.44 winnings
Returns 25.61
lost 58.29
Rates 151.94
payment 154.7
2.76 profit
yield 1.81%
61.38% efficacy
100j capital at the basic rate of 1-5j him for the game system Kelly formula:
kelly
the sum of each game are saved 238.17
sum without conjunction. 205.4
Won 129.8
Returns 32.77
lost 76.56
Rates 205.13
payment 215.73
profit 10.6
yield 5.16%
63.19% efficacy
Conclusions:
- For example in / on the topic plays Kelly formula seems to be more profits although it should be noted that it requires skills accurately estimate the probability of an event that we play. Any considerable deviation in the form of an underestimation OR ANY overestimation of the probability can lead to greater losses than the game flat rate.
- When playing at stake 1j on a single or double and even when playing range 1 to 3j profit from the game is not entirely satisfactory. So she looked my previous game Kelly's formula in practice, but then founded his game range from 1 j-10j, however, have not seen nearly as high probabilities to estimate the game rate greater than 3 anawet 5j Perhaps it was one of the errors affecting the lower profit than himself founded Assuming topic
- Average exchange rate for the game flat rate was about 1.65 at the event, for playing Kelly formula, the average rate was 1.66
This conclusion was arrived I already after the first 3 months of playing to, but try to look for in the offer valuebets of higher rates did not budge at the same time with the efficiency of 60-70% what I've done in the last 3 months of the game (the average rate for both systems in the range of 3 recent months was then an average of 1.72 and the effectiveness fluctuated around 70%)
Note, however, that such a condition influenced the amount given by me type in a given month and the amount is halved. As they say quantity does not always mean quality but certainly Having more time would probably do the trick hunt more valuable types
. On the other hand, the bookmakers armed with the army in May odsmakerów reflexes are not confused so often we would have wished: p
It's enough to start with constructive criticism welcome
If someone took advantage of a few of my types and were useful I am very pleased, if someone failed ..no what not close the topic so it will be still a chance to redeem themselves
.
I greet forum users
