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Thursday night NFL best bets: Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWeek 7 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday with the Denver Broncos facing the undermanned Cleveland Browns.
Denver (3-3) is coming off a 34-24 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, while the Browns (3-3) fell at home to the undefeated Arizona Cardinals and lost quarterback Baker Mayfield (shoulder) in the process.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh (23-12-1, 1-4 last week), Doug Kezirian (10-12-2, 1-3), Tyler Fulghum (6-15, 0-6) and Anita Marks (110-75, 9-16), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (13-9-1, 1-1), Stats & Information's Seth Walder 26-31 (4-6), Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (21-15, 3-4) and fantasy/betting analyst Eric Moody (33-22, 13-11) have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (as of Wednesday).
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-2, 41)
Fortenbaugh: Let's just say I'm not exactly expecting the Fourth of July to break out Thursday night in Cleveland. Both clubs rank 27th or slower in pace on the offensive side of the ball, so it's not as if we're in for a high volume of plays. Further, Cleveland currently ranks second in the NFL in opponent yards per play while Denver ranks fourth in scoring defense. This game has rock fight written all over it.
Pick: Under 41
Schatz: Teddy Bridgewater has beaten this week's passing yardage prop in every game this year where he stayed healthy for the entire contest. He is averaging 252 passing yards per game, a number that is deceptively low because he was knocked out of the Week 4 Baltimore game after just 16 pass attempts. The Browns are 20th in pass defense DVOA, so they aren't a particularly tough matchup for Bridgewater. (The Browns are a bit of a pass funnel, in fact, as they are third-place in DVOA against the run.) Sure, the Broncos have some injured receivers, but they've had injured receivers all year. Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick are enough to get Bridgewater over this passing yardage prop.
Pick: Bridgewater passing yards over 223.5 (-115)
Moody: Bridgewater threw for 334 yards in the Broncos' loss to the Las Vegas Raiders and he could repeat that performance against the Cleveland Browns. Bridgewater has averaged 236 passing yards per game even if you take away his monster game from last week. A Browns defense that is injury-riddled should struggle to contain Bridgewater's trio of Sutton, Patrick and Noah Fant.
According to NFL.com, the Browns rank 28th in passing attempts per game (29.3) and 26th in passing yards per game (227.8). I don't expect the Browns to rely heavily on Case Keenum this week, especially against a Broncos defense that allows an NFL-best 56.7 completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. D'Ernest Johnson, Demetric Felton and Cleveland's running game will be key to Cleveland's success. As a team, the Browns lead the league in several rushing categories, including yards (1,011) and touchdowns (12).
The key to Sutton's success against the Browns lies in his target volume. Cleveland's defense allows 220.7 passing yards per game. Sutton's accumulated 25 targets over the last two games and he should accumulate enough targets to exceed the receiving yard prop. Over the last three games, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Williams and Justin Jefferson have faced the Browns defense -- that trio averaged 101.3 receiving yards per game.
Javonte Williams has averaged 13.3 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 65 yards per game. He's the only player with three rushing attempts of 30 yards or more. Although Melvin Gordon III is still a key part of the Broncos' running back committee, Williams is a ridiculously productive player even with minimal touches.
Picks: Bridgewater over 229.5 passing yards; Keenum under 31.5 passing attempts and 220.5 passing yards; Sutton over 67.5 receiving yards; Javonte Williams over 64.5 total rushing + receiving yards
Marks: Injuries galore for both teams tonight, but my money is on Case Keenum in a familiar Kevin Stefanski system, over Teddy Bridgewater, two weeks post concussion and with an injured foot. Myles Garrett should make things difficult for Teddy tonight and weather conditions will be difficult for the Broncos to pass the ball well. Don't be surprised if we see Drew Lock by the end of the night, and expect Denver to rely heavily on the rushing game.
Pick: Browns -2, Bridgewater under 31.5 pass attempts, Tim Patrick under 3.5 receptions, Gordon over 56.5 rush/rec yards, Williams over 11.5 carries
