TCU prediction: Will No. 3 Horned Frogs best Kansas State, win Big 12 Championship?

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The last time TCU and Kansas State faced off, the Frogs erased a 28-10 lead to beat the Wildcats.​

TCU wide receiver Derius Davis (11) races downfield on an 82-yard punt return for a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA football game against Texas Tech on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Fort Worth.(Smiley N. Pool / Staff Photographer)

What’s at stake?​

TCU and Kansas State battled all season to punch their ticket to Arlington. Now, the hard work has paid off and the Horned Frogs and Wildcats will compete for the Big 12 Championship.


TCU may be undefeated but its spotless record won’t help inside AT&T Stadium. When the postseason begins, all regular season accomplishments are thrown out the window and each team will receive a clean slate.
Like every game, Saturday will come down to execution and effort. Both teams are capable, but which one will prove they have what it takes to secure a win with a Big 12 Championship on the line?
Believe it or not, TCU is playing for more than conference glory. If the Horned Frogs win, they’ll be selected to participate in the College Football Playoff.

Even if the Frogs lose, there’s still a solid chance they’ll be selected. Nothing is guaranteed, so the safe route would be to provide the committee with an easy decision by staying undefeated.
How many more wins do head coach Sonny Dykes and the team have left in the tank? December is upon us and the Horned Frogs have a legitimate shot at making college football history. Will they capitalize on the opportunity?

When TCU has the ball​

The key to the game for TCU is incredibly simple: start fast and don’t look back. Against the Wildcats in the regular season, the Frogs found themselves in a 28-10 hole.


Sure, they erased the deficit, giving up zero second-half points along the way. The Frogs are capable of surging from behind, but on Saturday, they’ll want to focus on keeping a lead to avoid a stressful fourth quarter.

Quarterback Max Duggan had one of his best performances against the Wildcats, passing for 280 yards on 65% passing and throwing three touchdowns. If he can replicate the performance and continue to play with efficiency, the Frog offense, which is the healthiest it has been in weeks, will be hard to stop

TCU has the Big 12′s highest-scoring offense, averaging 41.3 points per game. After the Frogs’ thrashing of Iowa State, Kansas State now has the Big 12′s top defense, allowing only 19.4 points per game.

Scoring won’t come easy and it’s important that Duggan doesn’t try to force anything against a dangerous Kansas State secondary. As long as the Frogs continue to move the chains with rushes by running back Kendre Miller and complete short passes, they’ll find themselves with red zone opportunities.

The big play has fueled the Frogs this season, but on Saturday, slow and steady will win the race. Scoring chances will arise eventually and patience will prove effective.



The Frogs’ decision-making has been excellent all season. Can they continue the smart play on Saturday?

When Kansas State has the ball​

The last time the Frogs and Wildcats faced off, Adrian Martinez started at quarterback for K-State. After an injury, Will Howard took over as starting quarterback. Ever since, the Wildcat offense has been more pass-heavy.


The Frogs will be able to game plan for Howard, a privilege they did not have the first time around. The Wildcat QB is averaging 244.8 passing yards per game compared to Martinez’s 140.1.

Don’t be surprised if some sets are run through the speedy and elusive Martinez. The Frog defense will need to be ready for both quarterbacks, who have tossed a combined three interceptions.


Both QBs are dangerous, but the main thing the Frogs need to focus on is stopping running back Deuce Vaughn and the Wildcat ground game. Vaughn is averaging 107.9 rushing yards per game, third in the Big 12 Conference.

Takeaways will be hard to come by. To succeed, the Frogs should focus on simple execution and avoid giving up the big play. Timely plays, especially on third and fourth down, will be the deciding factor.

Prediction​

TCU has proven the college football world wrong time and time again. Can it secure one more victory?


The Frogs have all the momentum but don’t take anything for granted. Saturday will be a tough battle and Dykes’ team will arrive prepared.

A rematch against Kansas State is undoubtedly the Frogs’ toughest challenge yet. The Wildcats, having lost to the Frogs this season, will have a chip on their shoulder.

It’s hard to defeat a good team once. It’s even more challenging to do it again, but it’s what TCU will have to do.
In a close, back-and-forth game, the Frogs will come out on top. If there’s anything this season has proven, it’s that the Frogs find a way to win in crunch time.

Score: TCU 34, Kansas State 31

 

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Big 12 Championship Odds & Picks: Our Best Bets for TCU vs. Kansas State’s Spread & Over/Under​

By Dan Keegan

A pair of purple powerhouses collide in Arlington, Texas, with the Big 12 crown on the line. These two teams were both popular preseason picks to dethrone the league’s blue bloods and recent bullies, and their destinies collide with playoff stakes on the line for TCU.

The Horned Frogs jumped to the top of the league standings with their magical undefeated season, and they have an inside track for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Head coach Sonny Dykes has orchestrated this storybook campaign, turning a talented and previously underperforming roster into one of the top teams in the country.

The Frogs are powered by a trio of stars on offense; quarterback Max Duggan distributes the ball to his explosive playmakers, running back Kendre Miller and wide receiver Quentin Johnston.

The defense is fast and athletic, and coordinator Joe Gillespie is known for his excellent second-half adjustments.

TCU has made hay all season with clutch plays and big second-half comebacks, including in its first matchup against these Wildcats, which it won by a score of 38-28.

Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez was lost to injury early in that contest, and backup Will Howard led the opening volley. The Wildcats jumped out to a 28-10 lead before TCU finished strong and blanked them in the second half — those famous Gillespie adjustments.

Howard will again be under center for Kansas State this weekend; he has unlocked a new dimension for the offense with his passing ability, something that was lacking in the Martinez-led attack.

The Wildcats are an excellent, well-balanced team, and this short line reflects their ability to challenge undefeated TCU.

Do the Frogs have another strong finishing move in their arsenal, or will Kansas State break its second-half magic for the first time this season?

We polled 14 of our college football experts in order to find a consensus on how to approach this matchup. Let’s take a look at their collective insight.

TCU -2.5​

By Doug Ziefel

The Horned Frogs were 3.5-point favorites when these two teams met in October. While it took a tremendous second-half comeback for them to cover in that one, we believe that they will do so again at a better number.

TCU’s comeback stemmed from its most significant edge — the ground game.

Kendre Miller rushed for 129 yards and scored twice in the first matchup against Kansas State, and he should receive another heavy workload this time around as well.

The key to the rushing attack starts up front, as the Horned Frogs outrank the Wildcats, 72-103, in Line Yards. TCU should be able to win up front consistently, and if Kansas State overcommits, Duggan will burn them down the field.

On the other side of the ball, TCU must contain Deuce Vaughn. It did a fairly good job of doing so in the first meeting, as he totaled just 83 yards.

The Horned Frogs should also be much more prepared for Will Howard, as he had some success coming in off the bench against them. However, with a regular amount of time to prepare, we should see a more typical performance from the secondary, which ranks ninth in opponent completion percentage allowed.

Lastly, there has been market support for the Horned Frogs all week. We’ve seen this number rise from 1.5 at open. It will not be surprising if it steams to three once limits increase, as we all know how key the number three has become.

Staff Pick: TCU -2.5​

 

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Over 62​

By Mike McNamara

When these two teams met back in October they combined for 66 points in a game where the total was 54.5. Now, that number sits at 62, and we believe it will go over once again.

TCU should be back at full strength offensively with Quentin Johnston appearing on schedule to play in this one.

The Frogs went for 62 on their own last Saturday against a top-20 Iowa State defense in cold and rainy conditions. Now, they head indoors to the turf at Jerry World, with the offense firing on all cylinders.

Kansas State’s defense is sound, but it should give up its fair share of chunk plays to TCU just as it did in the first matchup between these two.

On the other side of the ball, Deuce Vaughn’s explosiveness will play a key role. The Wildcats star will be playing in arguably the biggest game of his career and will be dangerous every time he touches the ball.

Will Howard has earned the right to be the man leading the Cats at quarterback, and the senior has looked really comfortable in recent weeks.

This should be a back-and-forth contest throughout, with Max Duggan continuing to lean on his legs when the Horned Frogs get into the red zone.

When Kansas State crosses midfield and gets into scoring position, it has the type of balance a team needs to attack an improved TCU defense under Joe Gillespie.

Ultimately, the advantages lie with both offenses in this game, which should lead to plenty of points and some quick scores.

We’re rolling with the over in what should be a great battle in Arlington.

Staff Pick: Over 62​

 

[Tanko]

I think K-State will win. The last game Martinez (K-State QB) played like 1 series. Howard came in and did great but Martinez is much better. Having him for the entire game makes the difference IMO.