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Tanko - 2026 MLB Plays

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
64,894
There is some value on the Cubs today at current odds +164 Bet105.

Two pretty good pitchers with Philly having the slight edge.
> Assad (CHC) in 2nd start and had a stellar 1st game 5 2/3 innings 0 ERA. WHIP is 0.5.
> Sanchez (PHI) is no slouch. It will be his 4th game, 1.65 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 5.75 K/BB.

Relief pitching is also strong on both sides but Philly's best relievers are a little more used up than the Cubs.
> CHC 2.74 ERA
> PHI 3.17 ERA

Where I see the slight edge is at the plate. Recent form (7 days):
> CHC WRC 110, 0.331 OBA
> PHI WRC 87, 0.300 OBA

This game should be a lot closer than the odds indicate so I'll take the shot on the Cubs and hope Assad keep is close so the Cubs bats & bullpen can finish it off.
 
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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
64,894
Miami at Atlanta.
Teams from two different levels of play.

Pitching:
> Holmes (ATL) 3 starts and excellent so far. 2.55 ERA, 1.08 WHIP. Getting better with each game.
> Perez (MIA) 3 starts and trending worse with each start. 5.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP.

Relievers:
The one area Marlins has some life but still not as good at the Braves. 2.86 ERA (#14 MLB) vs ATL 2.11 (#1 MLB).

Batting (last 7 days):
> ATL 141 WRC+, 0.382 OBA, 0.274 AVG
> MIA 77 WRC+, -.285 OBA, 0.249 AVG
The avg runs scored over the last 7 days: MIA 3.0, ATL 6.8 --> makes me lean into to the RL play below.


Finally, its early in the season but Miami has not shown the ability to play well on the road 1-6 W/L.

I like the Braves two ways today.
ATL -143
ATL -1.5 RL +143
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
64,894
Adding one.
Got the idea from LT who has been doing well in MLB this season.

BAL O8.5 -112 Mybookie

Kremer looks like he is starting for the O's. Not a great pitcher this season. Got bumped to minors to start the season after poor spring training. Combine that with Nelson (ARI) and we should see some fireworks. Both teams batting decent over the last week, especially BAL. Combined they are averaging 10 runs total over the last week or so.
 
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