Overall record: 19-21-1 -2.40
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7
Jaguars -3 -105 (2 unit play)
So this will be my second 2-unit play of the season. The first one was Bengals covering against the Jets all the way back in Week 3. I don't play a lot of these, but I think this spot fits the right criteria.
Jacksonville is coming home after a brutal divisional loss in a game that it feels like it should win. Meanwhile, the Giants are going on the road after winning game they probably should have lost. The Giants continue to ride high, and they definitely deserve praise as a 5-1 team. But I think this is challenging spot for them.
I think Jacksonville's defense matches up well with what the Giants want to do offensively. New York is so limited in its pass game, but they've been able to overcome that by having a healthy Saquon Barkley and an excellent run-blocking offensive line. I think the Jags, despite their flaws, match up well with any team that is reliant on a bell cow back because of their stout run defense. Thiey are going to force Daniel Jones to beat them, which is not a good proposition -- he is not good despite the Giants record.
I think the Jags are starting to figure a few things out offensively as well, and I think they will be productive enough to secure a nice victory at home. Gimme the Jags baby
Bengals -7 +110
I originally told myself that I would not be betting this game. Maybe I shouldn't lol but I'm going to anyway. The plus-money is too enticing.
On a more serious note, I like the Bengals to cover primarily because I think they are going to be able to have their way with the Falcons pass defense. This will be by far the toughest test for Atlanta in terms of guarding perimeter weapons. I expect Chase, Higgins, and Boyd all to be able to get some separation. It could be a long day for that secondary.
While Atlanta's rushing attack could pose a problem for the Bengals, who are missing a couple key contributors in their front 7, I think the Bengals unit collectively has been good enough and will do enough to keep the damage minimal. The secondary has also been playing well, and I have faith they can force Mariota into some mistakes.
It's worth noting that there is some reverse line movement here. Good sign for Bengals backers IMO
Titans ML -135
Divisional match-ups are tough, but I'm gonna go ahead and pick the home team to come away with a victory. Tennessee has shown to me that they've figured a few things out since their poor start, and in particular I like the way Tanny and Henry have played. I also think they're doing a good job of figuring out how to utilize the few perimeter weapons that they do have. It's a team going in the right direction.
Indy has played better lately as well, but they're still too a little inconsistent on both sides of the ball. They are also not quite full strength on defense, which I think will be a pretty significant issue in a match-up like this one.
I also love Vrabel off a bye....in the regular season
Broncos PK +100
I can't believe I'm investing money in a Russell-Wilson led team, but here we are. I'll take the Broncos in this spot, even though I hate it in a way.
I just think the Jets are going to fall back to Earth a little bit. I like how their young guys are playing, but I think it's a tall order to stay on the road and go to a place like Mile High. I also do not love Zach Wilson facing this Broncos defense, which is playing pretty well.
This is more about New York falling back then it is about Denver stepping up and being good. If the Broncos can't figure it out against a Jets team with inflated value, then might as well tank for CJ Stroud or something. I dunno. Just win the game dammit
Seahawks/Chargers over 50.5 -110
This total is pretty high already, but I do really like there to be a lot of points in this game. I was really back and forth on the spread, but ultimately decided that the total is where the value is on this one.
I think the Seahawks are going to have some trouble matching up the size of LA's receivers. The defense may be feeling good about itself after a low-scoring win against Arizona, but they are young and still.....pretty bad. I just think the Chargers receivers being bigger and more physical is going to give them problems.
On the end, the health issues for LA combined with Seahawks figuring things out on the ground could lead to the Seahawks finding quite a bit of success when they have the ball. Geno has continued to play well, and I don't see that stopping any time soon against a Chargers defense that has struggled a bit.
I may have more later, but this is the card for now. Good luck
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