Stormtrooper8 NFL 2022

[stormtrooper8]

Probably pass on Giants/Eagles. Lean GMen but tough number

Gonna play around with some teasers

 

[stormtrooper8]

Locking in


Bengals ML +190 (2.5 unit play)

 

[stormtrooper8]

Write ups tomorrow, busy af.

Will get it in before I leave town late Wednesday

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 43-44-1 -4.05
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Week 8: 5-5 -0.35
Week 9: 2-4 -2.30
Week 10: 5-2 +2.80
Weeks 11-12: No action
Week 13: 4-2 +1.70
Week 14: 3-2 +0.85
Weeks 15-18: No action/posted in Enik Discord group
Wild Card: 2-5 -3.25


Suck suck suck suck suck. Write ups coming

 

[stormtrooper8]

(prices from above)

Bengals +5 -105 and Bengals ML +190 (2.5 unit play)

Before the season, I predicted the Bengals would go 12-5, win their division, and lose to a hot Bills of Chiefs team in the Divisional round of the playoffs. So far, the prediction has been pretty close to spot on. So this is where I hope I'm wrong.

I went against my Bengals last week and predicted the Ravens to cover the number...I felt in a lot of ways, that would be the toughest game for them because of the divisional familiarity and Ravens style of play. As pedestrian as Cincinnati looked, they got through it and found a way to get it done.

This week, I believe the Bengals will play well. I think this group plays especially well when they have a chip on their shoulder/are in an underdog role -- something that's been somewhat rare this year given how successful they've been. That's sort of big picture stuff....here's more what I see on the field:

When the Bengals have the ball, I see a lot of mismatches that go the Bengals way. Buffalo is getting less healthy in the secondary and I think Chase/Higgins/Boyd are all going to find ample opportunities. The question will become whether or not Burrow is going to have time to be able to find his weapons deep down the field for explosive plays, or will he have to take a shorter/methodical approach. While I don't expect Burrow to have the time he had mid way through the season because of a banged up offensive line, I do think the line is going to hold up enough to create some chances for big plays. The line, while not great, is not great, but it is still going to be a bit better than last year's line that got them to the Super Bowl. More importantly though, I don't think Buffalo is going to be effective enough rushing Burrow because of the loss of Von Miller -- whose absence will not be more pronounced than ever. I just don't think Bills are going to have the players to fully take advantage of Cincinnati's OL injuries, and should they try to compensate and over-blitz from their linebackers, Burrow will eat them alive. He is the best QB in the league against the blitz

On the flip side, I think Buffalo will be able to move the ball a bit. Allen is just too good, and there is enough vulnerability in the secondary right now in Cincinnati that I think their receivers should be able to make some plays. But I do think Bengals have a couple things going for them here. One, Cincinnati executes a lot better defensively in the red zone than it does overall -- the ultimate "bend don't break" defense. You combine that with Allen's ability to make a mistakes when he gets down there -- I see the potential for a game-turning turnover in the Bengals direction. Even if the turnover isn't there, I think Bengals can force Bills into a couple field goals. The Bengals also have been very successful against mobile quarterbacks this year, and I think this will help against Allen and this rushing attack. The Bengals, while being a little shorthanded on the back end of their defense, have been getting healthier up front. The combination of Hendrickson/Hubbard/Reader may not be a great pass-rushing line, but they are VERY good against the run. Add into that Logan Wilson's playmaking ability, and I think you have a team that is built to contain Allen in the rushing game

The cold weather factor is something I've heard as something that favors the Bills, but I'm not so sure. Fun fact: Joe Burrow is 7-0 in games under 40 degrees. Somewhat counterintuitive when you consider the passing tendencies of Cincinnati

There's not really any outcome that would completely shock me, but I think the value here is on the Bengals. I think they are going to find a way to win this game in Orchard Park, and at the very least keep it very close

 

[edawg]

A few things working against Bengals in this game biggest being their Oline and lack of a run game. Coming off of a physical game against the Ravens and actually them having the better of it against the Bills before the game got suspended think works against them. If they get down early this game could get ugly for them.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Chiefs -8.5 -110

I have a lot of respect for Jacksonville, specifically the improvement of Trevor Lawrence and the coaching of Doug Peterson. But I believe this is where the Cinderella story ends.

There are a lot of intangible factors that I think favor the Chiefs here. Sometimes team come out rusty after a bye this late in the year -- last year's playoffs are a really good example of this when both 1 seeds lost at home in the Divisional Round. However, Andy Reid seems like the type to overcome this obstacle. Reid teams are famously sharp after byes, and I think you see a focused Chiefs team that won't fall into the rust traps that other favorites have recently. I also think the Chiefs familiarity in the playoffs will prove to be a big difference as well, as you have a squad that has hosted the last four AFC Championship Games (even with some different pieces) against a team that feels like they are in a foreign spot. Huge advantage to the Chiefs

On the field, I see a lot of favorable match-ups tilting towards Kansas City. I don't see a Jaguars team that is going to be able to to contain Chiefs suite of weapons on the outside. I know Tyreek Hill isn't out there, but the group of weapons out there are going to exploit a secondary for Jacksonville that is pretty bad. In theory they could at least try to remedy this with a healthy pass rush, but again the Jags probably aren't going to be able to get home against this O-Line. With the emergence of McKinnon as a reliable weapon for Mahomes as well, there are simply too many pieces

I think the Jags will having a few successful possessions offensively, but the Chiefs defense has kind of gone under-appreciated. With Jones out there I think their line will struggle, and Lawrence has shown tendency to make pivotal mistakes

I think the line should be double digits. Maybe the Jags back door, but I think Chiefs will create enough cushion to sail over this number

Takin KC

 

[JDS]

(prices from above)

Bengals +5 -105 and Bengals ML +190 (2.5 unit play)

Before the season, I predicted the Bengals would go 12-5, win their division, and lose to a hot Bills of Chiefs team in the Divisional round of the playoffs. So far, the prediction has been pretty close to spot on. So this is where I hope I'm wrong.

I went against my Bengals last week and predicted the Ravens to cover the number...I felt in a lot of ways, that would be the toughest game for them because of the divisional familiarity and Ravens style of play. As pedestrian as Cincinnati looked, they got through it and found a way to get it done.

This week, I believe the Bengals will play well. I think this group plays especially well when they have a chip on their shoulder/are in an underdog role -- something that's been somewhat rare this year given how successful they've been. That's sort of big picture stuff....here's more what I see on the field:

When the Bengals have the ball, I see a lot of mismatches that go the Bengals way. Buffalo is getting less healthy in the secondary and I think Chase/Higgins/Boyd are all going to find ample opportunities. The question will become whether or not Burrow is going to have time to be able to find his weapons deep down the field for explosive plays, or will he have to take a shorter/methodical approach. While I don't expect Burrow to have the time he had mid way through the season because of a banged up offensive line, I do think the line is going to hold up enough to create some chances for big plays. The line, while not great, is not great, but it is still going to be a bit better than last year's line that got them to the Super Bowl. More importantly though, I don't think Buffalo is going to be effective enough rushing Burrow because of the loss of Von Miller -- whose absence will not be more pronounced than ever. I just don't think Bills are going to have the players to fully take advantage of Cincinnati's OL injuries, and should they try to compensate and over-blitz from their linebackers, Burrow will eat them alive. He is the best QB in the league against the blitz

On the flip side, I think Buffalo will be able to move the ball a bit. Allen is just too good, and there is enough vulnerability in the secondary right now in Cincinnati that I think their receivers should be able to make some plays. But I do think Bengals have a couple things going for them here. One, Cincinnati executes a lot better defensively in the red zone than it does overall -- the ultimate "bend don't break" defense. You combine that with Allen's ability to make a mistakes when he gets down there -- I see the potential for a game-turning turnover in the Bengals direction. Even if the turnover isn't there, I think Bengals can force Bills into a couple field goals. The Bengals also have been very successful against mobile quarterbacks this year, and I think this will help against Allen and this rushing attack. The Bengals, while being a little shorthanded on the back end of their defense, have been getting healthier up front. The combination of Hendrickson/Hubbard/Reader may not be a great pass-rushing line, but they are VERY good against the run. Add into that Logan Wilson's playmaking ability, and I think you have a team that is built to contain Allen in the rushing game

The cold weather factor is something I've heard as something that favors the Bills, but I'm not so sure. Fun fact: Joe Burrow is 7-0 in games under 40 degrees. Somewhat counterintuitive when you consider the passing tendencies of Cincinnati

There's not really any outcome that would completely shock me, but I think the value here is on the Bengals. I think they are going to find a way to win this game in Orchard Park, and at the very least keep it very close

I completely agree with this analysis. Bengals I feel will not only cover, but win this game outright. Bills just not right these days IMO for another run in the playoffs. This is my bet below.

 

[stormtrooper8]

A few things working against Bengals in this game biggest being their Oline and lack of a run game. Coming off of a physical game against the Ravens and actually them having the better of it against the Bills before the game got suspended think works against them. If they get down early this game could get ugly for them.

They supplement a lot of their run game with a short passing game with their backs, by design. Not just as a mechanism against the blitz.

O-line being banged up is tough, but just don't think Bills have the juice to take advantage. Buffalo defense is just not that good (surprisingly), and missing a piece like Miller is huge. If they are over-aggressive, Burrow will destroy them.

Don't know about the impact of their first match-up. My guess would be it helps Bengals overall, they seem to be the better team in terms of making adjustments. Kind of a unique situation though

 

[JDS]

Stormy I thought when left tackle Jonah Williams got hurt, Jackson Carmen his replacement held his own against a pretty elite Ravens defense. What did you see pal ?

 

[stormtrooper8]

Stormy I thought when left tackle Jonah Williams got hurt, Jackson Carmen his replacement held his own against a pretty elite Ravens defense. What did you see pal ?

I think he played OK all things considered. Gave up a sack but I think was strong otherwise

BTW:

Bills gave up 7 sacks to a much less elite Dolphins defense

I feel like Bengals can win in the trenches overall even with the injuries. Both offensive lines could struggle though

 

[JDS]

I think he played OK all things considered. Gave up a sack but I think was strong otherwise

BTW:

Bills gave up 7 sacks to a much less elite Dolphins defense

I feel like Bengals can win in the trenches overall even with the injuries. Both offensive lines could struggle though

Yeah let’s hope so for our bankroll purposes. I like getting Joe & the gang as the underdog roll as you mentioned. Also I don’t trust Josh Allen & his antics. He’s really not a smart quarterback at the end of plays he’s always trying to wing it & do extra shit. I think Lou Anarumo’ scheme will create turnovers for him.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Adding

3 team 8 point teaser: Chiefs -0.5, Eagles +0.5, Niners +4 +110

Good luck all!!!! South Beach here I come

 

[Wagerallsports]

Adding

3 team 8 point teaser: Chiefs -0.5, Eagles +0.5, Niners +4 +110

Good luck all!!!! South Beach here I come

That one looks good

 

[stormtrooper8]

Travel trippin me up but forgot one

Eagles -7.5 -105


NFC thoughts (Niners and Eagles)

-Cowboys run defense is poor, and I don’t like it to slow down SF.

-Giants way too vulnerable defensively, Jones will come back down to earth. Eagles can load up against the run if they need to

good luck! Fun weekend ahead

 

[Tanko]

Adding

3 team 8 point teaser: Chiefs -0.5, Eagles +0.5, Niners +4 +110

Good luck all!!!! South Beach here I come

I like this one as well but I don't like jumpnig the zero on a teaser.
I've done it but, you lose a point since 0 isn't an available outcome for the game.

GL

 

[venditto]

Travel trippin me up but forgot one

Eagles -7.5 -105


NFC thoughts (Niners and Eagles)

-Cowboys run defense is poor, and I don’t like it to slow down SF.

-Giants way too vulnerable defensively, Jones will come back down to earth. Eagles can load up against the run if they need to

good luck! Fun weekend ahead

Make sure to film it pussy

 

[Tanko]

Travel trippin me up but forgot one

Eagles -7.5 -105


NFC thoughts (Niners and Eagles)

-Cowboys run defense is poor, and I don’t like it to slow down SF.

-Giants way too vulnerable defensively, Jones will come back down to earth. Eagles can load up against the run if they need to

good luck! Fun weekend ahead

I'm really torn on this one ST. I think the Giants are playing well of late but with Jalen playing in his 2nd game after returning from injury, I'm thinking he's going to be back in his "groove".

I wish I'd done -7 early in the week.

 

[stormtrooper8]

I like this one as well but I don't like jumpnig the zero on a teaser.
I've done it but, you lose a point since 0 isn't an available outcome for the game.

GL

Agreed in general about crossing 0

Think this is one of those rare spots though where still getting value

 

[stormtrooper8]

I'm really torn on this one ST. I think the Giants are playing well of late but with Jalen playing in his 2nd game after returning from injury, I'm thinking he's going to be back in his "groove".

I wish I'd done -7 early in the week.

Hardest game on the slate probably. I just think it’s a good match up for Philly and Giants at serious talent deficit, coming back down to earth, etc

Don’t care much about the bye week other than Hurts recovery