Stormtrooper8 NFL 2022

[stormtrooper8]

love all of these except chicago and cardinals so far

feels like a good week here. good luck stormy

It's the Queen Le Bowl at Soldier Field this week

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 27-29-1 -3.85
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Week 8: 5-5 -0.35


Week 9

3-team/10 pt teaser: Jets +21.5, Chiefs -2.5, Saints +12.5 -125

Perhaps I am taking out a page of the playbook of the Teaser Queen herself, but I am going to drop one of my own. The numbers here seem clean for the most part, so I'm going to take a shot with this particular set. A few thoughts on each game:

I don't like Zach Wilson, and I don't think the Jets are as good as their record. But getting nearly a dozen points in a divisional game at home when you're 5-3 seems a little bit ridiculous. Buffalo very well could eviscerate them, and they have had their way in this match-up as of late, but I don't the Jets are going to be nearly as turnover prone and I think they have the playmakers on defense to keep Buffalo at bay and keep this close.

I love Andy Reid off a bye, though 12.5 felt a little rich to pull the trigger on a pure ATS play. Instead I'm going to throw them on here as well. I would be shocked if Kansas City isn't ready to go and while I like how Tennessee is playing, asking for the Chiefs to win by a field goal at home is not much

I'm more pessimistic about the Saints than a lot of people, in the big picture, and Dalton under the lights can be problematic (see Week 7). But I think Baltimore has shown us time and time again that it can't hold a big lead and they make things harder than it needs to be. They probably find a way to win, but I don't think it's a blowout or anything close to that. So it makes the teaser.


Patriots -6.5 +110

Shifting the line a little bit for some value. I seemingly love New England every week, but I really love them this week.

I don't think they played a great game in their road win against the Jets -- enough to clean up on both sides of the ball. They tend to respond well after having mistake-laden games like that one. I also think Sam Ehlinger is pretty bad, and we get another week of Belichick vs a bad, inexperienced quarterback. That's usually a winning recipe in itself.

Perhaps less important but something to consider is how embarrassing their last home loss in prime time. I think the players are going to be a lot more motivated in front of their home crowd to not let that happen again.

I really like the value here.


Cardinals -2 -105

I can buy in on what Seattle is doing -- they are legit. But I don't like them in this spot.

Arizona is not great by any means, but they have shown enough flashes even in their losses that they are not a dumpster fire and are very capable of being competitive. A divisional home game, in a redemption spot against a less talented team that is feeling good about itself seems like a good spot for Arizona.

The last time these two teams played, Arizona actually did a pretty good job defensively and got to Geno quite a bit. I expect that to happen again at home, and Arizona to get it done as the hungrier, more desperate team.


Chargers ML -140

This might bring a smile to Enikk's face....I'm taking the fuggin Chargers baby.

I have been really impressed with how well Atlanta has bounced back from losses, and frankly how tough they've fought in games. But what you are starting to see with them is that their secondary is getting exposed as what a lot of us predicted it would be. I think Herbert off a bye should be feeling a bit more like himself and I think him and his perimeter weapons will finally get some opportunities to have a dynamic passing game.

Atlanta's rushing attack could present problems, but I just don't think it's enough to balance out the issues their defense will have this game. I would consider taking the over....probably favorite total lean alongside GB/DET over.

I am also gonna take the money line only cuz Chargers coach is sort of a stooge and I don't trust them late in games/Atlanta is a fire garbage time team.


Tee Higgins over 74.5 receiving yards -110

I think my boy Tee Higgins is going to pop off this game on the Panthers.

With Chase out, obviously the receptions are going to have to go elsewhere. The Bengals didn't do a great job of targeting Tee against the Browns, but frankly they didn't go a great job of anything that game. Great players usually bounce back from subpar games, and I think Tee is going to have some opportunities against a defense that tends to give up some big, explosive plays. Look for the Bengals to get Tee involved early and often. I think he eclipses 100. Maybe worth grabbing a TD prop as well



Good luck!

 

[stormtrooper8]

I kinda feel like getting titty fucked tonight, so here's my wager


Saints ML +125


Good luck fam

 

[lemartinsports]

I kinda feel like getting titty fucked tonight, so here's my wager


Saints ML +125


Good luck fam

welp thisll be fun. of course i'm on the other side loll

 

[stormtrooper8]

welp thisll be fun. of course i'm on the other side loll

Ima already fucked then

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 27-29-1 -3.85
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Week 8: 5-5 -0.35


Week 9

3-team/10 pt teaser: Jets +21.5, Chiefs -2.5, Saints +12.5 -125

Perhaps I am taking out a page of the playbook of the Teaser Queen herself, but I am going to drop one of my own. The numbers here seem clean for the most part, so I'm going to take a shot with this particular set. A few thoughts on each game:

I don't like Zach Wilson, and I don't think the Jets are as good as their record. But getting nearly a dozen points in a divisional game at home when you're 5-3 seems a little bit ridiculous. Buffalo very well could eviscerate them, and they have had their way in this match-up as of late, but I don't the Jets are going to be nearly as turnover prone and I think they have the playmakers on defense to keep Buffalo at bay and keep this close.

I love Andy Reid off a bye, though 12.5 felt a little rich to pull the trigger on a pure ATS play. Instead I'm going to throw them on here as well. I would be shocked if Kansas City isn't ready to go and while I like how Tennessee is playing, asking for the Chiefs to win by a field goal at home is not much

I'm more pessimistic about the Saints than a lot of people, in the big picture, and Dalton under the lights can be problematic (see Week 7). But I think Baltimore has shown us time and time again that it can't hold a big lead and they make things harder than it needs to be. They probably find a way to win, but I don't think it's a blowout or anything close to that. So it makes the teaser.


Patriots -6.5 +110

Shifting the line a little bit for some value. I seemingly love New England every week, but I really love them this week.

I don't think they played a great game in their road win against the Jets -- enough to clean up on both sides of the ball. They tend to respond well after having mistake-laden games like that one. I also think Sam Ehlinger is pretty bad, and we get another week of Belichick vs a bad, inexperienced quarterback. That's usually a winning recipe in itself.

Perhaps less important but something to consider is how embarrassing their last home loss in prime time. I think the players are going to be a lot more motivated in front of their home crowd to not let that happen again.

I really like the value here.


Cardinals -2 -105

I can buy in on what Seattle is doing -- they are legit. But I don't like them in this spot.

Arizona is not great by any means, but they have shown enough flashes even in their losses that they are not a dumpster fire and are very capable of being competitive. A divisional home game, in a redemption spot against a less talented team that is feeling good about itself seems like a good spot for Arizona.

The last time these two teams played, Arizona actually did a pretty good job defensively and got to Geno quite a bit. I expect that to happen again at home, and Arizona to get it done as the hungrier, more desperate team.


Chargers ML -140

This might bring a smile to Enikk's face....I'm taking the fuggin Chargers baby.

I have been really impressed with how well Atlanta has bounced back from losses, and frankly how tough they've fought in games. But what you are starting to see with them is that their secondary is getting exposed as what a lot of us predicted it would be. I think Herbert off a bye should be feeling a bit more like himself and I think him and his perimeter weapons will finally get some opportunities to have a dynamic passing game.

Atlanta's rushing attack could present problems, but I just don't think it's enough to balance out the issues their defense will have this game. I would consider taking the over....probably favorite total lean alongside GB/DET over.

I am also gonna take the money line only cuz Chargers coach is sort of a stooge and I don't trust them late in games/Atlanta is a fire garbage time team.


Tee Higgins over 74.5 receiving yards -110

I think my boy Tee Higgins is going to pop off this game on the Panthers.

With Chase out, obviously the receptions are going to have to go elsewhere. The Bengals didn't do a great job of targeting Tee against the Browns, but frankly they didn't go a great job of anything that game. Great players usually bounce back from subpar games, and I think Tee is going to have some opportunities against a defense that tends to give up some big, explosive plays. Look for the Bengals to get Tee involved early and often. I think he eclipses 100. Maybe worth grabbing a TD prop as well



Good luck!

With Saints loss

2-4 -2.30 Week 9

29-33-1 -6.15 overall

Oof. Bad bad bad . At least the other sports are good

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall: 60-61-2
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 6-8
Week 8: 5-10

ATS picks for Week 9. Lines based on the Hilton style contest I'm in.


View attachment 6939

8-4-1 ATS Week 9

68-65-3 overall ATS

I'm not sure why I decided to actually put money on the Saints last night/throw them in a teaser when I leaned Baltimore. Story of the year!

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall: 68-65-3
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 6-8
Week 8: 5-10
Week 9: 8-4-1

ATS picks for Week 10. Lines based on the Hilton style contest I'm in.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 29-33-1 -6.15
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Week 8: 5-5 -0.35
Week 9: 2-4 -2.30


Week 10 plays

No write-ups. Life just got v busy with life circumstances and probably off forum for next few days. Probably better I don't write them up if college is any indication haha


Bucs ML -140
Chiefs -9.5 -105
Steelers ML +110
Packers +5 -110
Raiders -6 -105
Lions/Bears over 48.5 -105
Chargers/49ers over 45 -115


Good luck

 

[Pimike]

Like the Steelers

 

[MinnesotaFats]

Why is everyone on Pitt?

NO is banged up but the team is legit at every position except WR...

 

[stormtrooper8]

Gonna get back to action on football . Probably Week 13 plays today or tomorrow

Lines are verrrry wonky

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 34-35-1 -3.35
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Week 8: 5-5 -0.35
Week 9: 2-4 -2.30
Week 10: 5-2 +2.80
Weeks 11-12: No action


Week 13


Texans +7.5 -110

Talked about this game a little bit in another thread. I'm glad it moved out to 7.5. I don't love the idea of throwing money at a team as dreadful at Houston, but this line is a little bit too heavy.

Cleveland is the better team, but integrating a new quarterback and asking them to cover more than a touchdown on the road seems like a little too tough of a task. I also think as bad as Houston is, they have shown at least pockets of games (mostly early in the season) where they at least can fight if motivated. I think lately they've stopped fighting altogether, but I do think DeShaun coming back is going to be a little bit a of a motivator for this team at home.

The Browns also have been much pluckier as a dog than as a favorite in these spots. Usually the Browns really let you down when they are supposed to win/control a game, and I think this is a spot where they don't play their best and Houston at least hangs around.


Lions -1 -105

I tend not to not love short faves in these spots, but I do like Detroit to pull out a win in this one.

Jacksonville has a decent run defense, but they can be had over the top. Lamar didn't play a great game, but he was able to make some plays, especially late, against a very vulnerable secondary. I could see Detroit's receivers, who have seemed to heat up a bit, find some success

Detroit is obviously not a defensive juggernaut, but they have been playing a little bit better as of late. I thought their secondary played very well against Buffalo, good enough for them to win.

I also love the fact that they had a few extra days to get ready for this one, while Jacksonville comes off an emotional, dramatic win. A little edge to the home team there.


Broncos +9 -105

If you look at just the teams so far on the card, it looks pretty bad LMAO. I can't believe I'm doing this....but I'm taking Denver

I think the Ravens are going to have a hard time moving the ball on the Broncos defense. Baltimore is more of a college-style team, and their running game seems to be legit no matter who they have back there with Lamar, but I think Denver has the personnel to keep Lamar and the gang in check. I also don't love how Lamar has looked through the air recently -- seems like he's struggled enough for it to be a true pattern and not a blip.

The Broncos also feel like they've hit rock-bottom in a sense, and I do think we at least seem some sort of bounce back for that reason. Particularly, as much as I don't like the guy, I think Russ will actually have an OK game against a secondary that is still suspect. If their line can contain and improving Baltimore defensive front, then I think Russ actually will make enough plays to keep this competitive.

Enough to win outright? Probably not. But I think 9 is a little rich. Gimme Denver


Raiders ML +110

Think this game is going to shift a bit in the Raiders direction, so I like grabbing it early. The Raiders have done me some damage this year, and I don't love their defense, but I do think they are starting to find an identity offensively.

I really like how they've gotten Jacobs going this year, one of the bright sports. I don't see how the Chargers run defense is going to be able to slow him down. That's an Achilles heal for them, and I simply don't think the Chargers have the answers there

I do think LA will be able to score a bit (could be worth looking at the over), but I thin it'll be tough for them and their injuries to win a game like this on the road against a divisional rival that's at least showing a little life.


49ers -2.5 -130 (buying point)

I really like SF in this one. Double-dipping on it.

Miami has been playing well, there's no doubt about it, but they've been mostly getting it done against meh competition. They are about to embark on a pretty brutal closing portion of the schedule, and I think they will struggle quite a bit.

As explosive as their passing game has been, I am not impressed by their running game and I certainly can't see them having much success against this kind of defense. On the other side of the ball, I think Miami still has some vulnerability and I think the Niners, even with Mitchell out and some guys banged up, are going to be able to find some success in the passing game

Maybe Miami makes a roaring comeback late or finds a way to make it a field goal game, so I am going to buy the point. But I don't think it comes to that. I just think SF's talent on both sides of the ball is going to wear them down, and I think it's a bad match-up all the way around for them.


Bucs -2.5 -130 (buying point)

Tough loss for Tampa in Cleveland, but their fate is pretty much set in terms of what they can accomplish: win the division and be the 4 seed. There's not much movement from that, and so I don't think any loss for them is going to handicap them in any sort of way

They obviously are not a great team, but they are a much better team than New Orleans despite the Saints only being 1.5 games out technically. The Saints are just too much of a mess on offense, and I don't think it's the QB's fault. They just aren't well-coached, don't run a good offense, and don't really have the personnel.

I think New Orleans can limit Tampa here and possibly keep this close, hence I am going to buy a point just like the previous game. But ultimately Brady will make enough plays to win this game by at least 3.



Might add something for KC/Cincy. Haven't decided yet.


Good luck

 

[lemartinsports]

good luck stormy

 

[Bubbles]

great work storm.

 

[MinnesotaFats]

Stormy you are burying the board kid

 

[stormtrooper8]

Thinking Bengals ML

 

[stormtrooper8]

ATS plays. Lines based on Hilton style contest I'm in

Overall: 75-72-3
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 6-8
Week 8: 5-10
Week 9: 8-4-1
Week 10: 7-7
Weeks 11-12: No plays posted


Week 13 ATS plays....

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 34-35-1 -3.35
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Week 8: 5-5 -0.35
Week 9: 2-4 -2.30
Week 10: 5-2 +2.80
Weeks 11-12: No action


Week 13


Texans +7.5 -110

Talked about this game a little bit in another thread. I'm glad it moved out to 7.5. I don't love the idea of throwing money at a team as dreadful at Houston, but this line is a little bit too heavy.

Cleveland is the better team, but integrating a new quarterback and asking them to cover more than a touchdown on the road seems like a little too tough of a task. I also think as bad as Houston is, they have shown at least pockets of games (mostly early in the season) where they at least can fight if motivated. I think lately they've stopped fighting altogether, but I do think DeShaun coming back is going to be a little bit a of a motivator for this team at home.

The Browns also have been much pluckier as a dog than as a favorite in these spots. Usually the Browns really let you down when they are supposed to win/control a game, and I think this is a spot where they don't play their best and Houston at least hangs around.


Lions -1 -105

I tend not to not love short faves in these spots, but I do like Detroit to pull out a win in this one.

Jacksonville has a decent run defense, but they can be had over the top. Lamar didn't play a great game, but he was able to make some plays, especially late, against a very vulnerable secondary. I could see Detroit's receivers, who have seemed to heat up a bit, find some success

Detroit is obviously not a defensive juggernaut, but they have been playing a little bit better as of late. I thought their secondary played very well against Buffalo, good enough for them to win.

I also love the fact that they had a few extra days to get ready for this one, while Jacksonville comes off an emotional, dramatic win. A little edge to the home team there.


Broncos +9 -105

If you look at just the teams so far on the card, it looks pretty bad LMAO. I can't believe I'm doing this....but I'm taking Denver

I think the Ravens are going to have a hard time moving the ball on the Broncos defense. Baltimore is more of a college-style team, and their running game seems to be legit no matter who they have back there with Lamar, but I think Denver has the personnel to keep Lamar and the gang in check. I also don't love how Lamar has looked through the air recently -- seems like he's struggled enough for it to be a true pattern and not a blip.

The Broncos also feel like they've hit rock-bottom in a sense, and I do think we at least seem some sort of bounce back for that reason. Particularly, as much as I don't like the guy, I think Russ will actually have an OK game against a secondary that is still suspect. If their line can contain and improving Baltimore defensive front, then I think Russ actually will make enough plays to keep this competitive.

Enough to win outright? Probably not. But I think 9 is a little rich. Gimme Denver


Raiders ML +110

Think this game is going to shift a bit in the Raiders direction, so I like grabbing it early. The Raiders have done me some damage this year, and I don't love their defense, but I do think they are starting to find an identity offensively.

I really like how they've gotten Jacobs going this year, one of the bright sports. I don't see how the Chargers run defense is going to be able to slow him down. That's an Achilles heal for them, and I simply don't think the Chargers have the answers there

I do think LA will be able to score a bit (could be worth looking at the over), but I thin it'll be tough for them and their injuries to win a game like this on the road against a divisional rival that's at least showing a little life.


49ers -2.5 -130 (buying point)

I really like SF in this one. Double-dipping on it.

Miami has been playing well, there's no doubt about it, but they've been mostly getting it done against meh competition. They are about to embark on a pretty brutal closing portion of the schedule, and I think they will struggle quite a bit.

As explosive as their passing game has been, I am not impressed by their running game and I certainly can't see them having much success against this kind of defense. On the other side of the ball, I think Miami still has some vulnerability and I think the Niners, even with Mitchell out and some guys banged up, are going to be able to find some success in the passing game

Maybe Miami makes a roaring comeback late or finds a way to make it a field goal game, so I am going to buy the point. But I don't think it comes to that. I just think SF's talent on both sides of the ball is going to wear them down, and I think it's a bad match-up all the way around for them.


Bucs -2.5 -130 (buying point)

Tough loss for Tampa in Cleveland, but their fate is pretty much set in terms of what they can accomplish: win the division and be the 4 seed. There's not much movement from that, and so I don't think any loss for them is going to handicap them in any sort of way

They obviously are not a great team, but they are a much better team than New Orleans despite the Saints only being 1.5 games out technically. The Saints are just too much of a mess on offense, and I don't think it's the QB's fault. They just aren't well-coached, don't run a good offense, and don't really have the personnel.

I think New Orleans can limit Tampa here and possibly keep this close, hence I am going to buy a point just like the previous game. But ultimately Brady will make enough plays to win this game by at least 3.



Might add something for KC/Cincy. Haven't decided yet.


Good luck

4-2 +1.70 Week 13

38-37-1 -1.65 overall

Slowly but surely creeping back

 

[stormtrooper8]

ATS plays. Lines based on Hilton style contest I'm in

Overall: 75-72-3
Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3-1
Week 5: 7-8-1
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 6-8
Week 8: 5-10
Week 9: 8-4-1
Week 10: 7-7
Weeks 11-12: No plays posted


Week 13 ATS plays....

View attachment 7641

9-6 ATS Week 13....some really bad picks on my part.

84-78-3 overall. The mediocrity continues