Wagerallsports
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Matt Severance
ARIZONA @ TEXAS | 07/27 | 8:05 PM EDT
TEXAS -135
ANALYSIS: Not sure I've ever backed a team as a betting favorite on a 12-game losing streak, but there's a first for everything. To be fair to Texas, the past 10 of those losses have been on the road (they have led for one half-inning in that span) and the team has been pretty competitive this year at home. Pitcher Dane Dunning is 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA at home and has a 2.89 ERA in his past four starts overall, three of them won by the Rangers. Only the Rockies have fewer road wins than the Diamondbacks, who are 0-7 this year vs. the American League.
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 07/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
UNDER 9
ANALYSIS: That Minnesota lineup is quite weak right now following the trade of Nelson Cruz and with some injuries, so hopefully Detroit lefty Tyler Alexander can keep it in check his one time through -- he's not really stretched out to go much further before turning it over to the bullpen. Twins pitcher Kenta Maeda has a 2.81 home ERA this year and 2.81 ERA vs. the Tigers, so I don't expect much offense from Detroit. The wind is blowing in a bit at Target Field, too, and Dan Bellino is considered an "Under" umpire. In games he has been behind the plate this year with a total of exactly 9, the Under is 3-0. The Under is 4-1 in Minnesota's past five at home.
CHI. WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY | 07/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY +1.5
ANALYSIS: This one entertains me because Chicago's Dylan Cease truly blows chunks on the road (6.27 ERA) and Kansas City's Brad Keller is craptastic at home (7.19 ERA). Keller is really odd. Here are his overall ERAs by month this year: 9.00 in April, 3.86 in May, 8.31 in June and 2.61 in July. It's even Keller's birthday today, and he has held the White Sox to two earned runs or fewer in eight of his career 12 starts against them. Cease, meanwhile, has a 6.00 ERA this month. The Royals are rolling on a six-game skid, so we'll take them at a very cheap home runline price of -120.
TORONTO @ BOSTON | 07/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO -130
ANALYSIS: Interesting lineup for Boston with All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts out again as Kike Hernandez is playing short, usual DH JD Martinez is in left field (and he's a defensive liability) and backup catcher Kevin Plawecki is at DH. Also, closer Matt Barnes surely isn't available after pitching the past two days. Thus, I'll lean the Jays behind Robbie Ray (8-5, 3.12). Boston's Garrett Richards has been significantly worse at Fenway (6.55 ERA). Toronto is 13-6 in its past 19 on the road vs. right-handers.
ST. LOUIS @ CLEVELAND | 07/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Cardinals are eight games under .500 on the road overall, 6-16 in their past 22 away and have won just four of their past 15 series openers yet favored. Hmmm. They do add the DH. It's Adam Wainwright for the Redbirds. His road ERA is 5.35. Cleveland is 4-1 in its past five at home vs. the NL and starts underrated Cal Quantrill (3.84 ERA). He is 2-0 with a 3.22 ERA this month. We'll take the soon-to-be Guardians (still can't believe they chose that name) on the runline.
ARIZONA @ TEXAS | 07/27 | 8:05 PM EDT
TEXAS -135
ANALYSIS: Not sure I've ever backed a team as a betting favorite on a 12-game losing streak, but there's a first for everything. To be fair to Texas, the past 10 of those losses have been on the road (they have led for one half-inning in that span) and the team has been pretty competitive this year at home. Pitcher Dane Dunning is 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA at home and has a 2.89 ERA in his past four starts overall, three of them won by the Rangers. Only the Rockies have fewer road wins than the Diamondbacks, who are 0-7 this year vs. the American League.
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 07/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
UNDER 9
ANALYSIS: That Minnesota lineup is quite weak right now following the trade of Nelson Cruz and with some injuries, so hopefully Detroit lefty Tyler Alexander can keep it in check his one time through -- he's not really stretched out to go much further before turning it over to the bullpen. Twins pitcher Kenta Maeda has a 2.81 home ERA this year and 2.81 ERA vs. the Tigers, so I don't expect much offense from Detroit. The wind is blowing in a bit at Target Field, too, and Dan Bellino is considered an "Under" umpire. In games he has been behind the plate this year with a total of exactly 9, the Under is 3-0. The Under is 4-1 in Minnesota's past five at home.
CHI. WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY | 07/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY +1.5
ANALYSIS: This one entertains me because Chicago's Dylan Cease truly blows chunks on the road (6.27 ERA) and Kansas City's Brad Keller is craptastic at home (7.19 ERA). Keller is really odd. Here are his overall ERAs by month this year: 9.00 in April, 3.86 in May, 8.31 in June and 2.61 in July. It's even Keller's birthday today, and he has held the White Sox to two earned runs or fewer in eight of his career 12 starts against them. Cease, meanwhile, has a 6.00 ERA this month. The Royals are rolling on a six-game skid, so we'll take them at a very cheap home runline price of -120.
TORONTO @ BOSTON | 07/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO -130
ANALYSIS: Interesting lineup for Boston with All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts out again as Kike Hernandez is playing short, usual DH JD Martinez is in left field (and he's a defensive liability) and backup catcher Kevin Plawecki is at DH. Also, closer Matt Barnes surely isn't available after pitching the past two days. Thus, I'll lean the Jays behind Robbie Ray (8-5, 3.12). Boston's Garrett Richards has been significantly worse at Fenway (6.55 ERA). Toronto is 13-6 in its past 19 on the road vs. right-handers.
ST. LOUIS @ CLEVELAND | 07/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Cardinals are eight games under .500 on the road overall, 6-16 in their past 22 away and have won just four of their past 15 series openers yet favored. Hmmm. They do add the DH. It's Adam Wainwright for the Redbirds. His road ERA is 5.35. Cleveland is 4-1 in its past five at home vs. the NL and starts underrated Cal Quantrill (3.84 ERA). He is 2-0 with a 3.22 ERA this month. We'll take the soon-to-be Guardians (still can't believe they chose that name) on the runline.
