Service Plays - Thursday 9/30/21

Bettor Days

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NFL Sharp Action

8:20 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

This Week 4 opener features a pair of non-division foes trending in opposite directions. The Jags (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) have lost and failed to cover every game this season, most recently falling to Arizona 31-19 last week, failing to cover as 8-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) have been a pleasant surprise through three games and just upset the Steelers 24-10, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. The Jags are being outscored on average 30-17 while the Bengals are beating their opponents on average 23-18. Both teams are averaging roughly the same total yards on offense (Jags 326 and Bengals 318). The difference comes on defense, where the Jags are giving up 427 yards while the Bengals are allowing just 343.

This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are both happy to fade the hapless Jags and have steamed the Bengals up from -6.5 to -7.5. Historically, home favorites have been a smart bet on Thursday Night Football, covering roughly 56-percent of the time over the past decade. Rookie quarterbacks, like Trevor Lawrence, are just 1-0 SU and ATS this season. Brad Allen, the head official, has historically favored home teams (58-48 ATS, 55-percent).

The Bengals are in a prime teaser spot. By teasing Cincinnati down from -7.5 to -1.5 bettors are able to go through multiple key numbers (7 and 3), which is the preferred wiseguy approach to teasers. If you're looking for a partner in a tease, the Saints also fit the bill (-7.5 to -1.5) against the Giants. Also, those who play survivor may be intrigued by using Cincinnati as their Week 4 play. It allows you to save better teams for later and historically home teams have dominated Thursday Night Football on a short week.

The total hasn't budged off the opener of 46. Both teams are 2-1 to the under so far this season. The forecast calls for high 60s with 5 MPH winds. Primetime overs are 8-1.


Prop Bets to Consider (odds via DraftKings)

Joe Burrow Over 248.5 passing yards (-115) and Over 1.5 touchdowns (-195)
*Jacksonville is giving up the 5th-most passing yards at 302.3 per game. Burrow has thrown for 261, 207 and 172 this season. He has thrown at least two touchdowns in all three games this season.

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 interceptions (+ 145)
*Lawrence has thrown at least two interceptions in all three games this season, throwing 7 overall.

Ja'Marr Chase Over 71.5 receiving yards (-115) and Over 4.5 receptions (-130)
*Chase has caught 11 balls for 220 yards in three games and now will face the porous Jags pass defense

Tyler Boyd Over 60.5 receiving yards (-115) and Over 5.5 receptions (-110)
*Boyd leads the Bengals in targets (19) and catches (14). With Tee Higgins expected to miss tonight's game, Boyd could get even more targets than usual.
 

Bettor Days

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DOCS MLB

E - MILWAUKEE -110 OVER CARDINALS
D - BALTIMORE +185 OVER RED SOX
F - YANKEES+130 OVER BLUE JAYS + 130 1st 5 innings
D - YANKEES +130 GAME OVER BLUE JAYS
 

Bettor Days

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Andrew McInnis

B%
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon over 89.5 rushing yards -115
 

Bettor Days

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PickersMx

Mushu
200 Dimes NFL
Cincinnati Bengals -7

Lady Pickers
150 Dimes NCAAF
Virginia Cavaliers +5

La Barba Pickers
75 Dimes O/U
Over 62 Virginia vs Miami
 

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