Matt Severance
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 08/05 | 8:05 PM UTC
PHILADELPHIA -145
ANALYSIS: Phillies starter Aaron Nola isn't nearly the ace he was in years past, but he's been pretty close the last two times out, allowing just three runs in 14 2/3 innings while striking out 14. The Nationals' new-look offense shouldn't be a problem for him. On the other side, Nationals starter Joe Ross spun five scoreless innings against the Phillies on July 26. Seeing him again with this quick turnaround is generally a big benefit to the offense with the familiarity. Plus, the Nationals' bullpen is a disaster right now. Even if it has to be late, the Phillies roll for their fifth straight win.
CHI. CUBS @ COLORADO | 08/05 | 7:10 PM UTC
COLORADO -157
ANALYSIS: The Rockies aren't nearly a heavy enough favorite here. Cubs starter Jake Arrieta is totally cooked. He comes in with a 6.20 ERA and that's after he was good for his first five starts. In 13 starts since then, it's an 8.23 ERA. He's tasked with facing a Rockies team that is 34-21 and averages 5.56 runs per game in Coors Field. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has a 3.75 ERA at home compared to 6.03 on the road. The Cubs' offense isn't anything to write home about these days. Even in Wednesday's win, they only scored three runs and that came on a ball that could've been caught. Rockies, easily.
CHI. CUBS @ COLORADO | 08/05 | 3:10 PM EDT
COLORADO -162
ANALYSIS: As I've said in this space and the Early Edge all week, I'll be FADING the Cubs in nearly every road game the rest of the season. Probably plenty at home, too. Yep, they burned me in a bit of a fluke on Wednesday, but this still will be a winning strategy overall. The Rockies will go with Antonio Senzatela, who hasn't pitched in about a month after a bout with COVID. His splits are much better at home and during the day. Chicago's Jake Arrieta might be the worst pitcher in the National League right now with a 9.55 ERA over his past eight, and he has really been hammered in three career starts at Coors Field.
