BTC SPORT
Jets Stuck on the Runway
Game: (285) New England Patriots at (286) New York Jets
Date/Time: Sep 19 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: 1H New England Patriots -3.0 (-115)
What were the two biggest question marks/weaknesses on the Jets' roster heading into the season? Offensive line and secondary. After Week 1, those units are even thinner. Left tackle Mekhi Becton suffered a dislocated knee cap. Safety Lamarcus Joyner (tricep) is out for the season. Linebackers Jamien Sherwood (sprained ankle) and Blake Cashman (hamstring) will miss a couple of weeks. Punter Braden Mann (knee) is out. I'm going to focus on playing the first half because Zach Wilson might find his footing in the second half and keep the backdoor open like he did last week against the Panthers. I think Coach Belichick and this Patriots' defense is going to overwhelm him at the start of the game while the Jets piece their roster together. Wilson was pressured on 17 drop-backs last week against Carolina and went 5-for-17 on those plays. Center Connor McGovern earned the worst offensive line grade in the league last week. New England held Miami to 259 total yards while generating seven tackles for a loss. At the time of posting, New England -3 1H is available at FanDuel (-115); DraftKings (-115) and BetOnline (-115).
Two-Team Moneyline Parlay
Game: 49ers and Patriots ML Parlay
Date/Time: Sep 19 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: 49ers and Patriots ML Parlay
San Francisco moneyline: -155
New England moneyline: -250
Moneyline parlay payout: +130
Check out the free play that's posted on my page for my thoughts on New England over the Jets. In all honesty, I think you can attack that one from a variety of angles. My free play recommended laying 3 (-115) in the first half. I'm recommending a moneyline play here. Heck, I think you can lay the full game spread, too. You're looking at a rookie quarterback that is now behind arguably the league's worst offensive line without Becton going against Bill Belichick and a top-5 defensive line. The Patriots have the advantage in every aspect of this contest.
If you can erase San Francisco's near-collapse in the fourth quarter out of your brain, the 49ers put on a historic performance in the first half. They generated 10.5 yards per play in the first half. They were getting a first down every single time they snapped the ball. Jimmy Garoppolo enjoyed a 78-percent success rate in the first half, which again, is another fancy way of saying "The 49ers moved a large chunk of yards on nearly every play." San Francisco spent the whole week on the East Coast, so there's no travel or body clock concerns. Last week Philadelphia had a battle between two first-year head coaches. Now, Nick Sirianni is matched up with one of the league's best. I'll take the 49ers.
The Dirty Birds
Game: (289) Atlanta Falcons at (290) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Sep 19 2021 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Atlanta Falcons +12.5 (-110)
Looking at historical trends in this series (or anything with Tampa Bay) is generally pretty pointless because Tampa Bay didn't have Tom Brady prior to last season. But this is a division matchup where the Falcons have done REALLY well for themselves. Atlanta has won six of the last nine meetings in this series. In their first meeting last year, Atlanta was up 24-7 in the third quarter before coughing up a lead (heard that one before?). In the second meeting, it was 30-27 Tampa Bay with five minutes to go in the game. Atlanta lost the turnover battle 3-0 and was only down a field goal with five minutes left.
There's not going to be any kind of intimidation or discomfort from Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and Co. They know what they're going up against. Division underdogs have done really well in these early-season spots, and last week was no exception. Houston beat Jacksonville as a 3-point home 'dog. Miami beat New England as a +3.5 road 'dog.
Sometimes you have to let the odds board tell you a story. On Friday evening, Pinnacle is reporting that 90-percent of the money and 71-percent of the tickets are on the Bucs, yet the line has dropped from -13.5 to -12. Pinnacle, known as a sportsbook that caters to sharper bettors because of their larger limits, is the only book down to -12 while everyone else is at -12.5 or -13. That tells you that they are welcoming Bucs money and protecting against Falcons money.
Shop around and make sure you're getting the best of the number, but I'm comfortable with playing Atlanta at anything larger than +11.
