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Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
42,588
portsLine Projection Model

Cincinnati at Indiana | 9/18 | 12:00 p.m. ET

Against the spread
Pick: Cincinnati -3.5
The Bearcats cover in 58 percent of simulations.

Over/Under
Pick: Under 49.5
The Under cashes in 75 percent of simulations.

Moneyline
Pick: Cincinnati -170
The Bearcats win 66 percent of the time

Projected final score: CIncinnati 23, Indiana 16
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
42,588
SATURDAY FOOTBALL Parlay Winners

Play Cincinnati -4 over Indiana (NCAA)

Indiana has lost 25 of the last 35 games against the spread coming off a home win by seventeen points or more in their last game and they have lost 20 of the last 30 games against the spread after scoring 42 points or more in their last game.

Play Purdue +7 over Notre Dame (NCAA)

Notre Dame has lost 86 of the last 152 games against the spread when playing as a home favorite and they have lost 57 of the last 102 games against the spread when playing in the 1st month of the season.

Play Florida +15 over Alabama (NCAA)

Florida has covered the spread in 62 of the last 100 games after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games and they have covered the spread in 74 of the last 130 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game.

Play Tulane +14 over Mississippi (NCAA)

Mississippi has lost 54 of the last 100 games against the spread coming off an OVER the total in their last game and they have lost 14 of the last 21 games against the spread coming off two consecutive wins by 17 points or more.

Play Texas A&M -29 over New Mexico (NCAA)

New Mexico has lost 49 of the last 84 games against the spread when the total posted is between 49.5 and 56 points and they have lost 58 of the last 101 games against the spread when playing in the month of September.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
42,588
BTC SPORT

Added

Tank Keeps Rollin
Game: (113) Connecticut at (114) Army
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: B units
Play: Army Total Over 41.0 (-110)
I am going to release some thoughts on two college football team totals tonight. I'll release both of them for small unit sizes. They are not widely available at the time of posting, but hopefully in the morning when the market expands a little bit, you'll be able to join me with some beer and pizza money on these.
Army is NOT shy about steam-rolling a team when they have the opportunity. In 2019, the Black Knights scored 52 vs Morgan State; 63 vs UMass; and 47 vs VMI. In 2020 they scored 42 vs Middle Tennessee; 55 vs Abilene Christian; and 49 vs Mercer. They've already scored 43 and 38 in two games this year against viable FBS competition. Why should we think UConn of all teams is going to hold them under their season average?!
When you've got a team like Alabama running out the clock in the fourth quarter, the other team is still competing and trying to make some plays. When teams are getting whipped by Army, they wave the white flag and say “no mas.” Look at the box scores of some of those games that I mentioned above. They scored 21 in the fourth quarter against Morgan State. They scored 14 in the fourth quarter against VMI. They scored 17 in the fourth quarter against Abilene Christian. Those teams were probably so tired of getting cut-blocked and pancake'd that they just rolled over.
UConn's coach Randy Edsall is no longer with the team, handing the reins to Lou Spanos. Spanos was a linebackers coach in the NFL from 1995 to 2017. You know what you don't see in a 23-year career in the NFL? The triple option. Spanos joked about it with the local UConn press this week, saying he remembers playing against the triple option in seventh grade. He has no experience trying to coach against it.
Barstool Sportsbook has Army over 40.5 (-120). Pinnacle has Army over 41.5 (-102). BetOnline doesn't have team totals up at the time of posting, but they do have a prop: Will either team reach 40 points? So the "yes" is essentially a bet on Army's team total over 39.5. Anything under 42 would be a recommended play from me.

Wolverine Wallop
Game: (111) Northern Illinois at (112) Michigan
Date/Time: Sep 18 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: B units
Play: Michigan Total Over 41.0 (-110)
I am going to release some thoughts on two college football team totals tonight. I'll release both of them for small unit sizes. They are not widely available at the time of posting, but hopefully in the morning when the market expands a little bit, you'll be able to join me with some beer and pizza money on these.
John Harbaugh is a good bully, and he's usually not shy about keeping his foot on the gas to keep the alumni happy (Sports betting is legal in Michigan, afterall). He should have the opportunity in this one. I really enjoy reading the SB Nation sites to get a feel for a team before the game. You can usually get a good mix of opinions from a couple different people on how teams are approaching games. In this week's preview at Maize n Brew, the question was asked: "What questions do you still have you’d like for Michigan to find answers to?" All seven writers referred to Michigan's passing game and Cade McNamara. So if the fans and writers are still questioning it, you know Harbaugh probably is, too.
Michigan is running the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the country through two weeks. The Wolverines only had seven pass completions last week against Washington. At some point, Harbaugh needs to know what he's working with, especially since they lost No. 1 wide receiver Ronnie Bell in Week 1. There's no better defense in the country to air it out against than Northern Illinois'. The Huskies' defense is No. 114 in passing success rate allowed. While playing a MAC schedule last season, Northern Illinois gave up 9.2 yards per pass attempt.
Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis lost his voice this week because he was yelling at his players so much. I don't think you'll see a letdown from his unit this week. The Wolverines know they still have things to work on. Their offensive line is going to dominate this game.
Barstool Sportsbook has Michigan over 40.5 (-125). Pinnacle has Michigan over 41.5 (+105). BetOnline doesn't have team totals up at the time of posting, but they do have a prop: Will either team reach 40 points? So the "yes" (-115) is essentially a bet on Michigan's team total over 39.5. Anything under 42 would be a recommended play from me.
 

Bettor Days

Bettor Days

Joined
Jun 12, 2021
Messages
5,091
Linebacker Sports

All E* plays
Lines at time of release
Tex A&M -29.5
Michigan over 54
Ball St +7
Iowa under 56.5
FSU +6.5
Marshal -9.5
Penn St under 53
N Texas +12
AF over 54
La Tech +11
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
42,588
Clay Travis -14-7 on the season. That’s a robust 67% winning percentage on the season.


Michigan State +6.5 at Miami,
Purdue +8.5 at Notre Dame
Nebraska +22.5 at Oklahoma
Alabama at Florida +14.5 and the over 58.5
Old Dominion at Liberty, the over 54
South Carolina +32 at Georgia
Auburn at Penn State -6 and the under 53
Stanford at Vanderbilt, the under 49
Tulane at Ole Miss, the under 76.5
 
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