Service Plays - Saturday 8/28/21

[Jackofhearts]

Ian Parker

UFC

Edson Barboza (-110) vs. Giga Chikadze (-110): Chikadze (best bet)

Both men possess elite speed, combinations and unpredictable strikes that stifle opponents. When Edson Barboza is not leading the striking or successfully landing calf kicks, he tends to struggle. The path to victory for Giga Chikadze is to pressure Barboza early and make him fight with his back against the wall. That blueprint fits perfectly into the way Chikadze fights. As long as he doesn't give up an early takedown to Barboza, I believe Chikadze gets the win.

Ricky Turcios (-160) vs. Brady Hiestand (+140): Turcios (best bet)

In the TUF bantamweight finals, we have Brady Hiestand facing Ricky Turcios. Both fighters like to stand and strike, so we should be in for an exciting fight. I am going with Turcios. I believe he is the better striker, has the better chin and his cardio is infinite. Look for Turcios to bring the pressure for Hiestand at a relentless pace that will just be too much.

Makhmud Muradov (-450) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+370): Muradov (best bet)

After getting back in the win column, we now see Gerald Meerschaert having to take on another high-level prospect in Makhmud Muradov. Unless Meerschaert can put Muradov on his back early and work his ground game, he will be in for a long night. Muradov is the better athlete and has a huge advantage in striking.

Abdul Razak Alhassan (+190) vs Alessio Di Chirico (-220): Di Chirico (best bet)

Since Abdul Razak Alhassan has returned to the UFC after a long layoff, he has not found any success and I believe this won't change when he fights Alessio Di Chirico. Alhassan carries a ton of power but, if he doesn't land, he gasses out and his opponent takes over. Di Chirico is a good striker who can use his range to keep Alhassan away and take away that power. Look for Di Chirico to have the better cardio and dictate the pace in order to tire out Alhassan and get the win.

JJ Aldrich (-360) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+300): Aldrich (best bet)

JJ Aldrich is coming off her most impressive win to date over Courtney Casey. Aldrich will be the better fighter everywhere. As long as she doesn't get impatient with her striking and follows the gameplan, she should get the win.

Mana Martinez (-325) vs. Guido Cannetti (+265): Martinez (best bet)

Guido Cannetti is coming off two losses in a row, both by finish. He is fighting a talented striker in Martinez, so his best plan of attack would be to get the fight to the ground. However, I don't see it playing out that way for Cannetti. Look for Martinez to defend the takedowns of Cannetti extremely well and put his striking skills on display.

Bryan Battle (-165) vs. Gilbert Ubina (+145): Urbina (lean)

In "The Ultimate Fighter" middleweight finale, we see Gilbert Urbina as a late replacement taking on Bryan Battle. Even on short notice I like Urbina. Battle tends to start slow and relies way too much on his grappling to get him out of bad positions. Against a pressure fighter in Urbina, I don't think he will be as fortunate.

Kevin Lee (-145) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+125): Rodriguez (lean)

Kevin Lee is jumping up to the welterweight division and is getting all he can ask for in Daniel Rodriguez.. Lee must take it to the ground and utilize his wrestling. Unfortunately, it seems like Lee's ego gets to him and he gets away from what helped him get to this level of success. I believe the value is on Rodriguez. He is an excellent striker, carries a ton of power and has been the more active fighter.

Wellington Turman (-145) vs. Sam Alvey (+120): Turman (lean)

Wellington Turman is coming off of two KO losses and hoping to avoid a third against veteran Sam Alvey. Turman needs to get back to his submission-game roots. If he opts to stand and trade with Alvey, more than likely he will be put to sleep. Turman should have a huge advantage on the ground and for a guy who is looking to keep his job and not get knocked out again. I believe that is exactly where the fight goes.

Dustin Jacoby (-185) vs. Darren Stewart (+160): Jacoby (lean)

Look for Dustin Jacoby to keep the fight on the feet against Darren Stewart. He will be the better striker and have the speed advantage. As long as he can avoid the takedowns of Stewart and pressure him with his high output of striking, he should get the win.

Jamall Emmers (-145) vs. Pat Sabatini (+125): Emmers (lean)

In what should be an exciting fight between two bright prospects, we have Jamall Emmers meeting Pat Sabatini. Emmers will be the better striker and, as long as he can avoid the slick takedowns of Sabatini, he should be able to get the win here.

 

[Jackofhearts]

Kyle Marley

UFC

Giga Chikadze (+100) vs. Edson Barboza (-120): Barboza by unanimous decision

This is about as high-level of a striking match as we can get. Both guys are amazing strikers and I expect a fun, striking battle. Giga is 6-0 in the UFC, but this is a big step up. I think Barboza has the edge everywhere in this fight except for age and durability. I think Barboza is the faster and more powerful striker. He also has a lot more experience against top guys. I think this fight plays out on the feet, but if it does go to the mat. I favor Barboza there as well. He looked amazing in his last fight, and I think this is a small step down, so I am going to lean with Barboza to get a unanimous decision if he isn't able to finish first.

Bryan Battle (-170) vs. Gilbert Urbina (+145): Battle by split decision

This is the middleweight finale for TUF, and Urbina is stepping in after he lost on the show because the guy who beat him was injured last week. Battle looks like the bigger guy who will have the edge on the feet, and he was the last pick on the show so it would be cool to see him get the win for that reason. Ubrina looks to have the edge on the ground, but I am not confident he can get it there. I won't be betting this fight because I do think it is very close and I don't have a strong lean on either guy. I am going to pick Battle to win though because he is the one I would rather root for and I think he wins more striking exchanges.

Ricky Turcios (-160) vs. Brady Hiestand (+135): Turcios by unanimous decision

This is the bantamweight finale for TUF and Turcios is the one guy on the show that I think can stick around in the UFC for a while. He looks well-rounded and I like the pace that he fights at. Hiestand is primarily a grappler so he should be looking for takedowns early and often. I think Turcios should be a bit better everywhere though and I am going to take him to pick up a win on the scorecards.

Kevin Lee (-155) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+130): Rodriguez by split decision

Kevin Lee is making his 170-pound debut here and this is a fun matchup. DRod is going to be the bigger guy here and I think he is the better boxer as well. Lee is well-rounded, but I think he should look to mix in wrestling in this fight. If he does, then I would agree with the line. I don't trust him to fight the most optimal way though and I could see this fight mainly taking place on the feet. I am going to side with the underdog for that reason and I think he will be the guy landing more volume and probably the harder shots as well.

Andre Petroski (-500) vs. Michael Gillmore (+380): Petroski by submission

This is a striker vs. wrestler matchup and if Petroski does look to wrestle, I think he probably gets an early finish. I don't see Gillmore having anything to offer off his back and I don't think his striking is good enough to land a KO before he is taken down. I also don't see him being a guy that can weather a wrestling storm and tire Petroski out to win late. Give me the wrestler with a great beard to dominate this fight on the mat.

Makhmud Muradov (-575) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+425): Muradov by (T)KO

Both guys are pretty well-rounded, but this is pretty much a striker vs. grappler matchup. Meerschaert has to get this fight to the ground to stand a chance and I think it is more sub or bust for him because I don't think he can grapple enough to win a decision. Not against the sub prop on Meerschaert when that comes out if it is over +500, but I am going to lean with Muradov as my pick. I think he is levels ahead in the striking game, and if Meerschaert can't get takedowns then I think he is getting knocked out.

Alessio Di Chirico (-240) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+200): Alhassan by (T)KO

Alhassan is fighting for his job here after getting dominated in his last fight and hasn't looked good in his last three since his long layoff. I think Di Chirico has a clear path to the win here if he can get takedowns because Alhassan doesn't have anything to offer off his back. He needs to keep this fight on the feet and his power is the best part about his game. I am going to lean with Alhassan to get the KO but it's more so because I want to root for him and hope that we see some of the old Alhassan back in there. I do agree with him being the underdog, but I think the line has moved enough that he is the value side as well, so he is my pick by KO.

Wellington Turman (-130) vs. Sam Alvey (+110): Alvey by (T)KO

Turman is a solid grappler and that is where his edge is. However, Alvey is very hard to take and hold down, so we probably see most of this fight play out on the feet. Turman is coming off back-to-back KO losses and Alvey does have KO power in his counter punches. I am going to take him to land one here, but I would like to get a better number before betting it.

Dustin Jacoby (-175) vs. Darren Stewart (+150): Jacoby by unanimous decision

Jacoby should be the better striker here and he is going to have the size advantage as well. Stewart should mix in takedowns and if he can keep the striking close, then maybe a takedown can win the round. I do think he is live to win two rounds that way, but I think the majority of this fight takes place on the feet and I would rather side with Jacoby. I think he lands more volume, and he is likely to land a KO as well.

JJ Aldrich (-400) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+310): Aldrich by unanimous decision

Demopoulos is making her UFC debut here on short notice and up a weight class. I didn't see anything from her that makes me think she can beat JJ here and I don't know that she is even ready for the UFC level in general. I think JJ wins this fight anywhere it goes. I think she can finish on the feet or the ground, but I am going to take her by a clear decision.

Jamall Emmers (-150) vs. Pat Sabatini (+125): Emmers by unanimous decision

Both of these guys are good wrestlers/grapplers, and it could just come down to who is able to land takedowns. I think Emmers is the better wrestler of the two though and I also think he has a big advantage on the feet. I think his chin is a question mark, but I don't know that Sabatini tests it and I would be more worried about Emmers being on his back. Give me Emmers to win two if not all three rounds.

Mana Martinez (-270) vs. Guido Cannetti (+220): Martinez by (T)KO

Martinez is making his UFC debut here and he is a good striker who swings for the fences. All eight of his wins are by KO in round 1 or round 2, and I think he can keep that streak going here. I do like Mana to win the striking in this fight, but the worry would be Canetti landing takedowns and grinding him out on the mat. I do think this line is pretty wide, so I would rather just take the KO prop instead of the ML, but I am going to take Mana to get his ninth knockout.

 

[Jackofhearts]

Tokyo Brandon

A* Blue Jays -1 -170
A* White Sox -.5 -145 First 5