Jackofhearts
- Joined
- May 12, 2021
- Messages
- 1,218
Kyle Marley
UFC
Sean Strickland (-210) vs. Uriah Hall (+180): Strickland by decision
Hall is a great striker, but he isn't high-paced enough to see him winning any other way than by KO. Strickland is the more well-rounded fighter, and he will be the one landing more strikes. I think Strickland can win with a KO, submission or a decision.
Kyung Ho Kang (-140) vs. Rani Yahya (+120): Yahya by submission
might be submission or bust for Yahya, but he is live to get that sub. I don't think Yahya can successfully wrestle consistently for three rounds, but he may only need to get the fight to the mat one time to get the win. Kang is the better striker and he also looks like he is the better offensive wrestler. But he has been off for almost two years and I think Yahya lands at least one takedown before he gasses out.
Cheyanne Buys (-180) vs. Gloria De Paula (+160): Buys by decision
Buys had a poor UFC debut, but I still think she is the better striker in a fight that should mostly stay standing. I also think Buys is more likely to get takedowns and land some ground-and-pound. Give me Buys to win a decision.
Bryan Barberena -260) vs. Jason Witt (+220) : Barberena by stoppage
Witt is going to need to win this fight with his wrestling. That is his one advantage and he might be able to grind out a decision with takedowns and heavy top control. Barberena is the better striker with higher output. He was taken down five times in his last fight and still got the victory. I don't like this price at all, but Barberena is the pick.
Nicco Montano (-210) vs. Yanan Wu (+180): Montano by decision
I think Montano is the better fighter everywhere in this matchup. She is the better striker and I also see her being the one with higher output. I also think she is more likely to land takedowns and ride out top-control time.
Melsik Baghdasaryan (-145) vs. Collin Anglin (+125): Anglin by decision
Baghdasaryan is a scary striker in Round 1. He is explosive and powerful, and he has four wins in 32 seconds or less. I expect him to win the first round and he might get the finish. He slows down after that though and, if he can't get the early knockout, he might lose Rounds 2 and 3. Anglin isn't great anywhere, but I expect him to be the fresher fighter after that first round and I think he can win the latter rounds, if not get a finish of his own.
Rafa Garcia (-250) vs. Chris Gruetzemacher (+210): Garcia by stoppage
I think Garcia is the better fighter anywhere this goes, and Gruetzemacher isn't going to give him many issues. Rafa is my most confident pick on the card, and I think he dominates this fight en route to a finish.
Kai Kamaka (-120) vs. Danny Chavez (+100): Kamaka by decision
I think Kamaka is better offensively everywhere other than leg kicks, and I just see him being the higher-paced fighter working more for the win. I don't see him dominating, and he slows down late in fights. But I think he is stronger and faster and wins on the scorecards.
Ashley Yoder (-140) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+120): Yoder by decision
Frey should be the better striker, but I don't see Yoder accepting a striking match. Yoder should have a big edge on the mat, and I think she can land a takedown or more in every round. Give me Yoder to win a decison by grinding this fight out against the cage and on the mat.
Ronnie Lawrence (-145) vs. Trevin Jones (+125): Lawrence by decision
Jones has big power, and he is always going to be live for the KO. I just love the work rate from Lawrence, and I think that is how he is going to win. He landed 12 takedowns in his "Contender Series" fight and eight in his UFC debut. There aren't many fighters who can land that many takedowns without gassing out and I see him having a similar game plan.
Orion Cosce (-185) vs. Philip Rowe (+165): Cosce by decision
This fight might be closer than the line indicates but I am going to lean with Cosce. He looks like the better overall striker, and I also think he can have success with his wrestling. Rowe has a 9-inch reach advantage, sso Cosce will need to close the distance. That is what I see him doing and not giving Rowe any room to start working his game.
Ryan Benoit (-135) vs. Zarrukh Adashev (+115): Benoit by decision
I think Benoit is more likely to land more volume as well as more likely to wrestle. I don't think he dominates Adashev, but he should be slightly better everywhere. I will take him to win on the scorecards by mixing in takedowns.
UFC
Sean Strickland (-210) vs. Uriah Hall (+180): Strickland by decision
Hall is a great striker, but he isn't high-paced enough to see him winning any other way than by KO. Strickland is the more well-rounded fighter, and he will be the one landing more strikes. I think Strickland can win with a KO, submission or a decision.
Kyung Ho Kang (-140) vs. Rani Yahya (+120): Yahya by submission
might be submission or bust for Yahya, but he is live to get that sub. I don't think Yahya can successfully wrestle consistently for three rounds, but he may only need to get the fight to the mat one time to get the win. Kang is the better striker and he also looks like he is the better offensive wrestler. But he has been off for almost two years and I think Yahya lands at least one takedown before he gasses out.
Cheyanne Buys (-180) vs. Gloria De Paula (+160): Buys by decision
Buys had a poor UFC debut, but I still think she is the better striker in a fight that should mostly stay standing. I also think Buys is more likely to get takedowns and land some ground-and-pound. Give me Buys to win a decision.
Bryan Barberena -260) vs. Jason Witt (+220) : Barberena by stoppage
Witt is going to need to win this fight with his wrestling. That is his one advantage and he might be able to grind out a decision with takedowns and heavy top control. Barberena is the better striker with higher output. He was taken down five times in his last fight and still got the victory. I don't like this price at all, but Barberena is the pick.
Nicco Montano (-210) vs. Yanan Wu (+180): Montano by decision
I think Montano is the better fighter everywhere in this matchup. She is the better striker and I also see her being the one with higher output. I also think she is more likely to land takedowns and ride out top-control time.
Melsik Baghdasaryan (-145) vs. Collin Anglin (+125): Anglin by decision
Baghdasaryan is a scary striker in Round 1. He is explosive and powerful, and he has four wins in 32 seconds or less. I expect him to win the first round and he might get the finish. He slows down after that though and, if he can't get the early knockout, he might lose Rounds 2 and 3. Anglin isn't great anywhere, but I expect him to be the fresher fighter after that first round and I think he can win the latter rounds, if not get a finish of his own.
Rafa Garcia (-250) vs. Chris Gruetzemacher (+210): Garcia by stoppage
I think Garcia is the better fighter anywhere this goes, and Gruetzemacher isn't going to give him many issues. Rafa is my most confident pick on the card, and I think he dominates this fight en route to a finish.
Kai Kamaka (-120) vs. Danny Chavez (+100): Kamaka by decision
I think Kamaka is better offensively everywhere other than leg kicks, and I just see him being the higher-paced fighter working more for the win. I don't see him dominating, and he slows down late in fights. But I think he is stronger and faster and wins on the scorecards.
Ashley Yoder (-140) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+120): Yoder by decision
Frey should be the better striker, but I don't see Yoder accepting a striking match. Yoder should have a big edge on the mat, and I think she can land a takedown or more in every round. Give me Yoder to win a decison by grinding this fight out against the cage and on the mat.
Ronnie Lawrence (-145) vs. Trevin Jones (+125): Lawrence by decision
Jones has big power, and he is always going to be live for the KO. I just love the work rate from Lawrence, and I think that is how he is going to win. He landed 12 takedowns in his "Contender Series" fight and eight in his UFC debut. There aren't many fighters who can land that many takedowns without gassing out and I see him having a similar game plan.
Orion Cosce (-185) vs. Philip Rowe (+165): Cosce by decision
This fight might be closer than the line indicates but I am going to lean with Cosce. He looks like the better overall striker, and I also think he can have success with his wrestling. Rowe has a 9-inch reach advantage, sso Cosce will need to close the distance. That is what I see him doing and not giving Rowe any room to start working his game.
Ryan Benoit (-135) vs. Zarrukh Adashev (+115): Benoit by decision
I think Benoit is more likely to land more volume as well as more likely to wrestle. I don't think he dominates Adashev, but he should be slightly better everywhere. I will take him to win on the scorecards by mixing in takedowns.
