Saints vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks: Our 2 Best Bets for Monday Night Football

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John LanFranca: The Saints have not covered the spread on the road this entire season (0-5), and they have not won a true road game since Week 1 at Atlanta.

During the month of November, the New Orleans offense ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Andy Dalton has also been an extremely profitable quarterback to fade in primetime games over the course of his career, covering just 36% of the time in his 25 spotlight games.

To make matters worse, the Saints running game has been non-existent, with Alvin Kamara averaging just 3.2 yards per carry since Week 8.

Despite the loss of offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs, I am optimistic about the Bucs offense moving forward. Chris Godwin is playing at an elite level again, which truly unlocks the ability of Tom Brady to negate the opposing team’s pass rush by making quick decisions.

The Bucs defense ranks seventh in DVOA over its last three games and is now taking on a lifeless Saints offense that has scored 10 totalpoints in its last two road games.

Need a reason to back Brady? He’s 35-16 (68.6%) in his career against the spread coming off a loss.

Saints bettors will be wondering why they chose to side with Dalton in primetime against the GOAT on Monday Night. Lay the points with the Bucs. I’d bet this up to Buccaneers -4.

 

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Dylan Wilkerson: New Orleans and Tampa Bay both host lackluster offenses. The Saints’ quarterback issues have stalled their scoring, and Tom Brady has looked like a shell of himself this season. Both teams average less than two points per drive on offense and convert on third down less than 40% of the time.

While these offenses have struggled, both defenses have been great. These two NFC South teams are allowing less than 5.5 yards per play and less than seven yards per pass attempt. That’s news that both of these teams hate to hear, because neither of them have shown competencies in the run game offensively.

Both defenses are allowing less than two points per drive and less than a 40% conversion rate on third down. I did not copy and paste that from the first paragraph. Both offenses are that inept, and both defenses are that exceptional.

Another interesting tidbit that could matter with this primetime under: The Saints have the worst field goal percentage in the NFL at 73.9%.

This season, divisional under are 36-22 (62.1%), while primetime unders have hit at 53.8% this season. I am trusting these two defenses to keep it tight on the big stage in this divisional showdown.

Pick: Under 41.5

 

[Tanko]

I read these for some insights. Thanks for posting them Biggins.

 

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