Russell Wilson Completes Hardest Pass So Far With NextGen Completion Probability of 3.2%

[KVB]

According to NextGen Stats the 7 yard touchdown pass was much more that that...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724252486087872515

 

[KVB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724250103647699338

 

[KVB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724250990017454156

 

[jjgold]

The irony is, he’s not even a top 15 quarterback

 

[KVB]

The irony is, he’s not even a top 15 quarterback

But he's always been good at scrambling and throwing those rainbow dimes.

So, even this year, I'm not surprised Wilson makes this type of throw.

 

[BMR Genie]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724250103647699338

Wow! Accomplishing the impossible.

 

[Leisure]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724250990017454156

That was a great play

 

[Wagerallsports]

The pass??

More like the catch

The throw was actually a foot minimum farther than it could have been

 

[Tanko]

I'm thinking at least 50% of the credit should go to Sutton with the incredible toe touch in the endzone.

 

[Tanko]

The pass??

More like the catch

The throw was actually a foot minimum farther than it could have been

Exactly.

 

[BMR Genie]

I saw Russel's post giving credit to the catch. Damn! So good to see it in slow mo.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724463756434973039

 

[Wagerallsports]

I'm thinking at least 50% of the credit should go to Sutton with the incredible toe touch in the endzone.

I'd say 75-80%

 

[KVB]

The pass??

More like the catch

The throw was actually a foot minimum farther than it could have been

Correct.

That's part of the probabilities involved. That's what made it an even tougher pass to complete.

Everyone needs to understand that receiver is not being denied credit for the catch.

This is about NextGen calculations and the calculation is for the pass. The data is based on the passing, placement, and QB statistics.

It's the probability of the pass being caught here that is being assessed, not the probability of the receiver catching a pass.

The important part here, is that I say receiver cathing "a" pass, not "the" pass. "The pass" is the same as the "pass being caught".

So yeah, it's a great catch and receiver gets as much credit as Wilson for the connection, but it's the pass that Wilson made that is analyzed here.

And, according to NextGen, there's never been a pass caught with such a low probability of being caught.

I hope that makes sense.

 

[Archie]

quarterback A) 17 TDs and 7 INTs

quarterback B) 18 TDs and 4 INTs

which one is Russell Wilson and which one is Mahomes?

 

[BMR Genie]

quarterback A) 17 TDs and 7 INTs

quarterback B) 18 TDs and 4 INTs

which one is Russell Wilson and which one is Mahomes?

A is Mahomes and B is Wilson. WOw, just a small difference.

 

[JDS]

That amazing catch & footwork was the difference in this game to compel a win for Denver, huge play great win for the Broncos.