LT Profits
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We see nice underdog value on the Royals at a huge price Sunday with Brady Singer hosting Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers.
Lifetime Overachiever
Gonsolin has been a Sabermetric anomaly his entire career, literally posting an ERA much lower than his xFIP every single season in the majors, leading to an almost unfathomable career disparity with a 2,65 ERA vs. 4.25 xFIP over 330 lifetime innings.
Well, here we go again in 2023 as Gonsolin enters with a 3.30 ERA and 5.03 xFIP through 11 starts. He has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.22/3.49 per 9 and has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball in BABIP allowed at a ludicrous .196. The good news for us is the wheels are starting to come off with Tony allowing 11 earned runs over 10.2 innings his last two starts, and the ERA/xFIP disparity leaves room for more regression.
Better xFIP, Good Form
Now we get that Singer has a high 5.88 ERA, but not only is his xFIP almost 1.50 lower at 4.47, but it is also considerably lower than Gonsolin’s, which is a nice trait for a huge underdog like this.
Furthermore, Singer is actually in good form as he tossed six scoreless innings last time out, marking the fourth time in the last six starts that he allowed two runs or less. While that may be unsustainable, he may only need to be decent if Gonsolin continues to regress.
We think Singer is capable of that, so the Royals get our call as huge home underdogs/
Lifetime Overachiever
Gonsolin has been a Sabermetric anomaly his entire career, literally posting an ERA much lower than his xFIP every single season in the majors, leading to an almost unfathomable career disparity with a 2,65 ERA vs. 4.25 xFIP over 330 lifetime innings.
Well, here we go again in 2023 as Gonsolin enters with a 3.30 ERA and 5.03 xFIP through 11 starts. He has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.22/3.49 per 9 and has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball in BABIP allowed at a ludicrous .196. The good news for us is the wheels are starting to come off with Tony allowing 11 earned runs over 10.2 innings his last two starts, and the ERA/xFIP disparity leaves room for more regression.
Better xFIP, Good Form
Now we get that Singer has a high 5.88 ERA, but not only is his xFIP almost 1.50 lower at 4.47, but it is also considerably lower than Gonsolin’s, which is a nice trait for a huge underdog like this.
Furthermore, Singer is actually in good form as he tossed six scoreless innings last time out, marking the fourth time in the last six starts that he allowed two runs or less. While that may be unsustainable, he may only need to be decent if Gonsolin continues to regress.
We think Singer is capable of that, so the Royals get our call as huge home underdogs/
