NHL Player Props

[quantumleap]

Unless you're making your own lines using some sort of systematic/scientific method, you're not doing that much better than guessing (like everyone else does).

Why not make 'power ratings' for teams in terms of how many shots they give up? And maybe it depends who's in net.

And then make a rating for players in terms of how many shots they take.

Another angle to consider would be trying to estimate how much time on ice the player is likely to get. If the star is injured, maybe the #2 guy will get more shots than usual if he's promoted to the top line, etc.

These are very beatable but you need to work harder.

Yeah, just guessing but my guessing is based similarly to what you are saying. I look at the rankings of teams that give up a lot of shots and also for teams that don't give up lots of shots. I then compare the players on how many shots they have been getting.

I also look at the ones that have been steamed, thinking the reason they are steamed is because they are more likely to occur. Then I adjust based upon the factors you have mentioned.

 

[quantumleap]

If you have a bit of a math background you might want to look into Poisson distributions for modeling these too

Thanks for the suggestion. I'll look into that.

 

[quantumleap]

guy on sportsgrid around noon, pics shots on goal props, claims to be killing it.
from what i heard they are all chalk, star players to go over.
when l check his plays you cant get the numbers, he gives out Ovechkin over 3 and its over 4 -180

It's funny you mention Ovechkin. I saw that his line for shots on goal was steamed to the under last week. I couldn't figure out why. I learned later that a family member was in ill health. I took the under for the next game as well thinking that he wouldn't be shooting that much that game either. Sadly, I later found out his father passed away.

 

[Pimike]

Good stuff here

 

[quantumleap]

-1.00) Rodrigues over 2 1/2 -145
+0.61) Draisatl over 2 1/2 -165
+0.77) Matthews over 3 1/2 -130
-1.00) Crouse under 2 1/2 -150
+1.10) Dubois under 2 1/2 +110

Today: 3-2, +0.48

YTD: 6-2, +2.45

 

[quantumleap]

I so wanted to go 4-1 today to make it 7-1 but Crouse scored his first goal with 12 minutes left in the 3rd and railed off 3 more shots in the next couple of minutes. I can't complain though, Matthews was stuck at 2 SOG until 4 minutes left in the 3rd when he got 3 shots in including 2 in the last 2 minutes.

One thing I learned is that line leaders (like Matthews) are often the ones that get the shots in late when a team is behind. I think that may already be factored in though when one looks at the SOG leader board which is what I use to handicap these props.

Looks like we have a couple 10am Pacific games tomorrow morning for President's Day. I'll check early to see if there are any advantages we may have and will post here.

 

[rolandcorts]

If you "look" at various factors but don't make your own number, then how do you know if a bet is good or not?

Suppose a player more often than not gets 3 or more shots on goal, and is playing a team that is above average in allowing shots. Over 3 looks good right? Well what if the line is o3 -145? -165? Maybe even the under is desirable there. You have no idea.

 

[quantumleap]

If you "look" at various factors but don't make your own number, then how do you know if a bet is good or not?

Suppose a player more often than not gets 3 or more shots on goal, and is playing a team that is above average in allowing shots. Over 3 looks good right? Well what if the line is o3 -145? -165? Maybe even the under is desirable there. You have no idea.

There are other ways of deciding if a bet is worth taking other than making my own number. I look for numbers that have been juiced and then look into why they may be "off".

One example is Dubois from yesterday. The under was juiced. So I looked at his recent shots taken and found he had some good numbers in the last 5 games. So that made me wonder why the under was juiced. If it was out of line with the expected, then I thought there was a reason there was on outlier here.

Then I looked at the opponent, the NJ Devils, and saw that they were the 3rd best in the league in terms of allowing shots per game. I figured that's the reason why the under was juiced.

You see, I could be horrible in making my own number. I look to others to juice a total and then I see if there is a reason it's juiced, especially one that doesn't make sense at first like Dubois' recent shot numbers. I figure there's a good reason for the number to be juiced.

 

[carolinakid]

Q, take a look at the Moose at 3 today

 

[quantumleap]

Q, take a look at the Moose at 3 today

Will do. Thanks.

 

[carolinakid]

Look like a play to me Q, gl on the new week there!!

 

[BMR Genie]

Good luck today. QL!

 

[aikman.tr]

NIce run last 3 bro. The unders in shot on goal are lucrative and mostly plus side on the moneyline

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks everyone. Good stuff.

02-20-23

Henrique shots on goal under 3 1/2 -115

Giroux shots on goal under 2 1/2 -145

 

[quantumleap]

Verhaeghe shots on goal over 3 1/2 -130

 

[Pimike]

Listen folks,

QL is good a finding some nuggets.

 

[akillies]

where do you find the official sog data

 

[akillies]

wonder if unders in general would be profitable

 

[quantumleap]

where do you find the official sog data

For in-game action, I go to nhl.com and click on the game in the ribbon on the top.

For team stats I use the following:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

For matchups, I like to look at Statfox:

StatFox NHL Hockey Game Matchup Report

StatFox NHL Hockey Matchup Report

statfox.com

 

[lemartinsports]

quantum is the goat when it comes to nhl