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NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: 49ers to Rush Past Blazers in Charlotte
We fell to 46-39-2 across All Sports with our write-ups with our NCAA Basketball loser on Tuesday. We look to bounce back in the American Conference on Wednesday, where we see good value in UAB vs. Charlotte on ESPN+.
UAB Blazers vs. Charlotte 49ers
Wednesday, March 4th – 7:00pm ET
We think we have found good value on a home underdog in the American Athletic Conference on Wednesday, where we are taking the points with Charlotte when they host UAB in Halton Arena on ESPN+.
Should Blazers Be Favored on Road?
This is an important game regarding the upcoming AAC Tournament, as these teams are currently tied for fourth in the conference at 9-7 and the ultimate fourth-place team will get a bye in the first round. Also note that our model actually has Charlotte as a tiny favorite here of -0.6, so we think getting a full +2 is good value.
Sure, UAB is 18-11 but they went 9-4 against weak non-conference schedule rated 308th per Kenpom. More importantly, they are a poor shooting team, and while they are facing a terrible Charlotte defense that ranks 274th in efficiency, the Blazers have faced other weak defenses this year and they have still been unable to make shots.
They rank 317th in the country in eFG% while getting practically nothing from beyond the arc, ranking 364th out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point shooting at a disgusting 28.1%! They are not exactly lights out inside the arc either, ranking 233rd nationally in 2-point shooting at 50.5% with that figure noticeably dropping to 47.9% during AAC play. That does not particularly instill confidence as a road favorite against a better shooting team.
Charlotte Has Much Better Shooting
Now, Charlotte has a worse overall record at 15-14, but they faced a better non-conference schedule, and they are a solid 11-5 here at home. More importantly, they are safely above average in offensive efficiency at 113.0 (national average 109.5) while being above average from all points on the floor.
To wit, the 49ers rank 78th in eFG% at 53.7% (national average 51.5%) while making 35.6% of their 3-pointers (average 34.0%) and 53.9% of 2-pointers (average 51.8%). Now, we fully concede that their defense has held them back and they do not apply much pressure, ranking 332nd in turnover percentage forced. But as mentioned, UAB has shot terribly despite facing a soft schedule, so the lack of Charlotte resistance may not matter as much here as usual.
In the end, we see the 49ers scoring enough points to prevail outright here, but our official bet is taking the two points with Charlotte at home.
THE PICK
Charlotte +2 -107 at Bet105
We fell to 46-39-2 across All Sports with our write-ups with our NCAA Basketball loser on Tuesday. We look to bounce back in the American Conference on Wednesday, where we see good value in UAB vs. Charlotte on ESPN+.
UAB Blazers vs. Charlotte 49ers
Wednesday, March 4th – 7:00pm ET
We think we have found good value on a home underdog in the American Athletic Conference on Wednesday, where we are taking the points with Charlotte when they host UAB in Halton Arena on ESPN+.
Should Blazers Be Favored on Road?
This is an important game regarding the upcoming AAC Tournament, as these teams are currently tied for fourth in the conference at 9-7 and the ultimate fourth-place team will get a bye in the first round. Also note that our model actually has Charlotte as a tiny favorite here of -0.6, so we think getting a full +2 is good value.
Sure, UAB is 18-11 but they went 9-4 against weak non-conference schedule rated 308th per Kenpom. More importantly, they are a poor shooting team, and while they are facing a terrible Charlotte defense that ranks 274th in efficiency, the Blazers have faced other weak defenses this year and they have still been unable to make shots.
They rank 317th in the country in eFG% while getting practically nothing from beyond the arc, ranking 364th out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point shooting at a disgusting 28.1%! They are not exactly lights out inside the arc either, ranking 233rd nationally in 2-point shooting at 50.5% with that figure noticeably dropping to 47.9% during AAC play. That does not particularly instill confidence as a road favorite against a better shooting team.
Charlotte Has Much Better Shooting
Now, Charlotte has a worse overall record at 15-14, but they faced a better non-conference schedule, and they are a solid 11-5 here at home. More importantly, they are safely above average in offensive efficiency at 113.0 (national average 109.5) while being above average from all points on the floor.
To wit, the 49ers rank 78th in eFG% at 53.7% (national average 51.5%) while making 35.6% of their 3-pointers (average 34.0%) and 53.9% of 2-pointers (average 51.8%). Now, we fully concede that their defense has held them back and they do not apply much pressure, ranking 332nd in turnover percentage forced. But as mentioned, UAB has shot terribly despite facing a soft schedule, so the lack of Charlotte resistance may not matter as much here as usual.
In the end, we see the 49ers scoring enough points to prevail outright here, but our official bet is taking the two points with Charlotte at home.
THE PICK
Charlotte +2 -107 at Bet105
