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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Scarlet Knights Stay Close to Huskies in Piscataway
We are 45-36-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after a winning 2-1 week in NCAA Basketball. We see value in a bottom-tier matchup Tuesday as we have a pick in Washington at Rutgers on Big Ten Network.
Washington Huskies vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Tuesday, February 24th – 6:30pm ET
As we have mentioned a couple of times, the very first thing we do each day before digging deeper into games is we compare our model lines with the posted lines. Well, we have a drastic difference in a lower-tier Big Ten matchup Tuesday that does not figure to get much attention, where our model has Washington only -2.2 at Rutgers compared to the current line of -5. Thus, we are taking the points with the Scarlet Knights as home underdogs on the Big Ten Network.
Can Washington Score Enough?
Before even getting into the specifics of this game, consider that Washington is playing 3,000 miles away from home after going 1-7 straight up in their last eight road games following a road loss at Maryland on Sunday. Keep in mind that Maryland team is currently 11-16 and ranked 129th on Kenpom, which does not exactly inspire confidence as a decided road favorite in this spot.
The Huskies are now 13-14 overall (3-8 on the road) and 5-11 inside the Big Ten. They have been held back by an offense that ranks 189th in eFG% overall and 11th in that category during league play, where they are 15th in 3-point shooting and just 31.6% and only 10th in 2-point shooting.
The end-result of all that is ranking 207th in the country in scoring at 76.2 points per game, a figure that drops four full points to 72.2 PPG on the road and even further to 71.8 points against Big Ten foes.
Knights Not Considerably Worse
Now, by no means are we claiming that Rutgers is some powerhouse, but only that they are not so much worse than Washington that they should be underdogs by this much at home. They are 11-16 overall, the exact same record as the Maryland team the Huskies just lost to on Sunday, and only one game behind in the conference standings at 4-12.
Furthermore, Rutgers plays at a slow pace ranking 272nd nationally in Tempo Rating, and we do not see that changing against a Washington team ranked 228th themselves. Obviously, a slow-paced game inherently helps any underdog, but even that aside, the Scarlet Knights’ home scoring average of 72.2 points is the same as the Huskies’ road scoring average! And Rutgers has a winning record of 9-6 at home in Piscataway.
The bottom line here is that while Washington is probably the better team overall, we do not feel that the home/away splits for these squads support the Huskies being favored by much more than a field goal. Bet on Rutgers as home underdogs in Jersey Mike’s Arena.
THE PICK
Rutgers +5 -108 at Heritage
We are 45-36-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after a winning 2-1 week in NCAA Basketball. We see value in a bottom-tier matchup Tuesday as we have a pick in Washington at Rutgers on Big Ten Network.
Washington Huskies vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Tuesday, February 24th – 6:30pm ET
As we have mentioned a couple of times, the very first thing we do each day before digging deeper into games is we compare our model lines with the posted lines. Well, we have a drastic difference in a lower-tier Big Ten matchup Tuesday that does not figure to get much attention, where our model has Washington only -2.2 at Rutgers compared to the current line of -5. Thus, we are taking the points with the Scarlet Knights as home underdogs on the Big Ten Network.
Can Washington Score Enough?
Before even getting into the specifics of this game, consider that Washington is playing 3,000 miles away from home after going 1-7 straight up in their last eight road games following a road loss at Maryland on Sunday. Keep in mind that Maryland team is currently 11-16 and ranked 129th on Kenpom, which does not exactly inspire confidence as a decided road favorite in this spot.
The Huskies are now 13-14 overall (3-8 on the road) and 5-11 inside the Big Ten. They have been held back by an offense that ranks 189th in eFG% overall and 11th in that category during league play, where they are 15th in 3-point shooting and just 31.6% and only 10th in 2-point shooting.
The end-result of all that is ranking 207th in the country in scoring at 76.2 points per game, a figure that drops four full points to 72.2 PPG on the road and even further to 71.8 points against Big Ten foes.
Knights Not Considerably Worse
Now, by no means are we claiming that Rutgers is some powerhouse, but only that they are not so much worse than Washington that they should be underdogs by this much at home. They are 11-16 overall, the exact same record as the Maryland team the Huskies just lost to on Sunday, and only one game behind in the conference standings at 4-12.
Furthermore, Rutgers plays at a slow pace ranking 272nd nationally in Tempo Rating, and we do not see that changing against a Washington team ranked 228th themselves. Obviously, a slow-paced game inherently helps any underdog, but even that aside, the Scarlet Knights’ home scoring average of 72.2 points is the same as the Huskies’ road scoring average! And Rutgers has a winning record of 9-6 at home in Piscataway.
The bottom line here is that while Washington is probably the better team overall, we do not feel that the home/away splits for these squads support the Huskies being favored by much more than a field goal. Bet on Rutgers as home underdogs in Jersey Mike’s Arena.
THE PICK
Rutgers +5 -108 at Heritage
