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NCAA Basketball Pick for Thursday: Creighton to be Crowned Victorious in Vegas
We are now 6-0 in the NCAA Tournament and on an 8-0 NCAAB run overall with our write-ups after winning again on Saturday. We now shift away from The Big Dance with a play in a College Basketball Crown matchup on Thursday in Rutgers vs. Creighton on FS1.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Creighton Bluejays
Thursday, April 2nd – 10:30pm ET
Value cannot only be found in the NCAA Tournament, and we feel we have a valuable option in the College Basketball Crown in Las Vegas on Thursday. We are giving the points with Creighton while expecting a rather handy victory over Rutgers in the last quarterfinal matchup.
Bluejays Make it Rain Threes!
Before getting into the numbers in this matchup, let us quickly speak about motivation. Unlike the first round on the NIT where some teams do not want to be there after missing out on NCAA bid, these teams are not in that same boat as neither of them were considered a bubble team. Thus, they are happy to compete for a title of any kind, so we expect all out efforts all around.
With that out of the way, this looks like a very short line as our model has Creighton at -6.2 on a neutral court. The Bluejays finished with a losing record at 15-17 and 9-11 inside the Big East, but then again, this team also went on the road and shocked Connecticut 91-84 in Storrs a month ago, thanks to shooting 10-for-21, 47.6% from 3-point land.
While that success rate was an aberration, the fact remains that Creighton was the third best 3-point shooting team in the Big East, and they should not face much resistance here from a Rutgers defense that ranked 297th nationally and 15th in the Big Ten in 3-point defense. We see that expected success beyond the arc as the key to victory here, but let us not forget that the Bluejays are also a decent 78th in 2-point shooting while the Knights are 222nd in 2-point defense.
How Will Rutgers Keep Pace?
As you may have gathered, it will not surprise us in the least if Creighton scores in the 80s in this game, and we simply do not see Rutgers keeping pace it that happens. The Scarlet Knights finished with the worse record between these teams at 14-19 and they are ranked nearly 50 spots lower on Kenpom at 122nd, compared to 74th for the Bluejays.
Sure, the Big Ten is the better conference overall, but Rutgers won just one game all season against a team currently ranked higher than Creighton, and that was in overtime at home over 55th ranked Northwestern.
And besides not seeing a path to stopping the Bluejays if they hit their 3s at their typical rate, we do not think Rutgers can take advantage of an often suspect Creighton defense either, with an offense ranked 326th in eFG%, 242nd in 3-point shooting and 336th in 2-point shooting.
In a nutshell, this looks like a great matchup for the Creighton offense, especially beyond the arc, while their defensive deficiencies may not matter all that much facing a Rutgers gang that can’t shoot straight. Therefore, bet on the Bluejays as moderate favorites in this spot.
THE PICK
Creighton -4 -108 at Heritage
We are now 6-0 in the NCAA Tournament and on an 8-0 NCAAB run overall with our write-ups after winning again on Saturday. We now shift away from The Big Dance with a play in a College Basketball Crown matchup on Thursday in Rutgers vs. Creighton on FS1.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Creighton Bluejays
Thursday, April 2nd – 10:30pm ET
Value cannot only be found in the NCAA Tournament, and we feel we have a valuable option in the College Basketball Crown in Las Vegas on Thursday. We are giving the points with Creighton while expecting a rather handy victory over Rutgers in the last quarterfinal matchup.
Bluejays Make it Rain Threes!
Before getting into the numbers in this matchup, let us quickly speak about motivation. Unlike the first round on the NIT where some teams do not want to be there after missing out on NCAA bid, these teams are not in that same boat as neither of them were considered a bubble team. Thus, they are happy to compete for a title of any kind, so we expect all out efforts all around.
With that out of the way, this looks like a very short line as our model has Creighton at -6.2 on a neutral court. The Bluejays finished with a losing record at 15-17 and 9-11 inside the Big East, but then again, this team also went on the road and shocked Connecticut 91-84 in Storrs a month ago, thanks to shooting 10-for-21, 47.6% from 3-point land.
While that success rate was an aberration, the fact remains that Creighton was the third best 3-point shooting team in the Big East, and they should not face much resistance here from a Rutgers defense that ranked 297th nationally and 15th in the Big Ten in 3-point defense. We see that expected success beyond the arc as the key to victory here, but let us not forget that the Bluejays are also a decent 78th in 2-point shooting while the Knights are 222nd in 2-point defense.
How Will Rutgers Keep Pace?
As you may have gathered, it will not surprise us in the least if Creighton scores in the 80s in this game, and we simply do not see Rutgers keeping pace it that happens. The Scarlet Knights finished with the worse record between these teams at 14-19 and they are ranked nearly 50 spots lower on Kenpom at 122nd, compared to 74th for the Bluejays.
Sure, the Big Ten is the better conference overall, but Rutgers won just one game all season against a team currently ranked higher than Creighton, and that was in overtime at home over 55th ranked Northwestern.
And besides not seeing a path to stopping the Bluejays if they hit their 3s at their typical rate, we do not think Rutgers can take advantage of an often suspect Creighton defense either, with an offense ranked 326th in eFG%, 242nd in 3-point shooting and 336th in 2-point shooting.
In a nutshell, this looks like a great matchup for the Creighton offense, especially beyond the arc, while their defensive deficiencies may not matter all that much facing a Rutgers gang that can’t shoot straight. Therefore, bet on the Bluejays as moderate favorites in this spot.
THE PICK
Creighton -4 -108 at Heritage
