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NCAA Basketball Pick for Thursday: Not Much Scoring in Atlantic City in MAAC Opener
We dropped to 46-40-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after another NCAA Basketball loser on Wednesday. We look to get back on track with a total in the MAAC Tournament on Thursday in Sacred Heart vs. Iona on ESPN+.
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Iona Gaels
Thursday, March 5th – 6:00pm ET
The MAAC Tournament kicks off on Thursday, and two inefficient offenses square off in the opening game. This has us supporting the Under at a seemingly inflated number when Iona takes on Sacred Heart in Atlantic City on ESPN+.
Good Defense, Bad Offense for Iona
Iona finished with a winning record of 18-13 overall although they were only a .500 team inside the conference at 10-10. The strength of this team is their defense, especially on the perimeter. The Gaels are ranked 56th nationally in eFG% allowed and they rank an excellent 24th in 3-point defense at just 30.4% (national average 34%). Unfortunately though, the offense has held Iona back.
The Gaels are a poor 275th in offensive efficiency despite being slightly above average in eFG% at 51.9% (average 51.5%). The two main reasons for the inefficiency are sloppy ballhandling and a lack of second chances, which as you will see in a bit are two traits that both these teams share.
Iona is 230th in offensive turnover percentage and a worse 281st in offensive rebounding percentage. That has led to ranking 218th in points scored at 73.6 per game, but that average has dipped below 70 during MAAC play to just 69.3 PPG.
Lot of Turnovers, Not Many Second Chances
Sacred Heart had a losing 13-18 record during the regular season while finishing one game behind Iona in league play at 9-11. And much of what we said above about the Iona offense also applies to the Pioneers, including being exactly tied in eFG% at 51.9%.
However, just like the Gaels, Sacred Heart’s slightly above average eFG% has been offset by a ton of turnovers and a lack of second opportunities. They rank worse than Iona in offensive turnover percentage at 247th, and while they are a little better in offensive rebounding percentage, they still rank a weak 239th overall.
Now, one thing the Pioneers can do reasonably well is shoot 3-pointers, where they are above average at 36.0%. However, we do not think they will achieve that rate tonight against a national Top 25 rated 3-point defense.
Thus, we think this total seems too high in a game where both teams could struggle to break 70 points. We are betting on the Under in the first game of the MAAC Tournament on Thursday.
THE PICK
Under 148 -108 at Heritage
We dropped to 46-40-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after another NCAA Basketball loser on Wednesday. We look to get back on track with a total in the MAAC Tournament on Thursday in Sacred Heart vs. Iona on ESPN+.
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Iona Gaels
Thursday, March 5th – 6:00pm ET
The MAAC Tournament kicks off on Thursday, and two inefficient offenses square off in the opening game. This has us supporting the Under at a seemingly inflated number when Iona takes on Sacred Heart in Atlantic City on ESPN+.
Good Defense, Bad Offense for Iona
Iona finished with a winning record of 18-13 overall although they were only a .500 team inside the conference at 10-10. The strength of this team is their defense, especially on the perimeter. The Gaels are ranked 56th nationally in eFG% allowed and they rank an excellent 24th in 3-point defense at just 30.4% (national average 34%). Unfortunately though, the offense has held Iona back.
The Gaels are a poor 275th in offensive efficiency despite being slightly above average in eFG% at 51.9% (average 51.5%). The two main reasons for the inefficiency are sloppy ballhandling and a lack of second chances, which as you will see in a bit are two traits that both these teams share.
Iona is 230th in offensive turnover percentage and a worse 281st in offensive rebounding percentage. That has led to ranking 218th in points scored at 73.6 per game, but that average has dipped below 70 during MAAC play to just 69.3 PPG.
Lot of Turnovers, Not Many Second Chances
Sacred Heart had a losing 13-18 record during the regular season while finishing one game behind Iona in league play at 9-11. And much of what we said above about the Iona offense also applies to the Pioneers, including being exactly tied in eFG% at 51.9%.
However, just like the Gaels, Sacred Heart’s slightly above average eFG% has been offset by a ton of turnovers and a lack of second opportunities. They rank worse than Iona in offensive turnover percentage at 247th, and while they are a little better in offensive rebounding percentage, they still rank a weak 239th overall.
Now, one thing the Pioneers can do reasonably well is shoot 3-pointers, where they are above average at 36.0%. However, we do not think they will achieve that rate tonight against a national Top 25 rated 3-point defense.
Thus, we think this total seems too high in a game where both teams could struggle to break 70 points. We are betting on the Under in the first game of the MAAC Tournament on Thursday.
THE PICK
Under 148 -108 at Heritage
