NCAAB Picks - Tuesday, 2/17/26

[LT Profits]

1 NCAAB Play Tuesday

Michigan State -8.5 -108 (Heritage)


YTD: 175-172-5, -7.64

 

[BMR Genie]

Great win with the over last night, LT!

Get it again today.

 

[LT Profits]

Thread 'NCAAB Write-Up for Tuesday, 2/17/26 (UCLA vs. Michigan St.)'

Feb 17, 2026

NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Spartans to Conquer Bruins Handily at Home

We are 43-35-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after officially pushing our NCAA Basketball play with Belmont -5 Thursday, although those who waited won with the game closing -4. We now have a play on UCLA vs. Michigan State Tuesday on Peacock.



UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans
Tuesday, February 17th – 8:30pm ET

The very first thing we do in our handicapping process before digging deeper into games is compare the posted lines to the line of our model. Well, we see a nice difference...

• LT Profits

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[LT Profits]

2 NCAAB Plays Tuesday

VCU -7 +101 (Bookmaker)
Michigan State -8.5 -108 (Heritage)

 

[LT Profits]

4 NCAAB Plays Tuesday

Xavier +4 -108 (Heritage)
VCU -7 +101 (Bookmaker)
Michigan State -8.5 -108 (Heritage)
San Diego State -8 -106 (Bookmaker)

 

[Tanko]

4 NCAAB Plays Tuesday

Xavier +4 -108 (Heritage)
VCU -7 +101 (Bookmaker)
Michigan State -8.5 -108 (Heritage)
San Diego State -8 -106 (Bookmaker)

You got me LT. I'm on Nova and can't figure out why you're on Xavier.

The Kenpom data seems to heaviliy favor Nova. I modeled this one at -7 so -4 was a steal IMO. Even Haslametrics seems to be very onesided towards them and had a -6 estimate.

If you have chance drop a couple comments on what you're seeing. I would appreciate it.

 

[LT Profits]

You got me LT. I'm on Nova and can't figure out why you're on Xavier.

The Kenpom data seems to heaviliy favor Nova. I modeled this one at -7 so -4 was a steal IMO. Even Haslametrics seems to be very onesided towards them and had a -6 estimate.

If you have chance drop a couple comments on what you're seeing. I would appreciate it.

Sometimes even I don't know what the model is "thinking" LOL, it spit out Villanova only -2.9

Looking deeper, combination of Xavier ability to make 3s and Nova favoring a slow pace. Thing that ultimately pushed me was sharp money on X with the whole world on Nova, made me feel better about model number.

 

[LT Profits]

7 NCAAB Plays Tuesday

Xavier +4 -108 (Heritage)
MiamiFL -8 -108 (Heritage)
VCU -7 +101 (Bookmaker)
SE Mo State / Tennessee-Martin OVER 139.5 -107 (Bookmaker)
Michigan State -8.5 -108 (Heritage)
Fresno State / Wyoming OVER 145.5 -106 (Bookmaker)
San Diego State -8 -106 (Bookmaker)

 

[jjgold]

Confirmed

LT getting some plays from Walters

 

[roofer]

1 NCAAB Play Tuesday

Michigan State -8.5 -108 (Heritage)


YTD: 175-172-5, -7.64

Money man cometh through. I bet this blindly after reading your write up and couldn't name two players if my life depended on it. Made me $6k+ Thank you : )

 

[Tanko]

Nice call on Xavier LT.....
I should have known. I should have known.