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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Bison to Stampede Past UMBC in First Four Opener
We went 2-0 in NCAA Basketball last week, making us 48-41-2 across All Sports with our write-ups. The NCAA Tournament kicks off Tuesday, and we have a play in the first game of the First Four in UMBC vs. Howard on truTV.
UMBC Retrievers vs. Howard Bison
Tuesday, March 17th – 6:40pm ET
March Madness is now upon us, and we see value in the very first game of the First Four Round on Tuesday. We are supporting Howard at + odds on the money line while we still can when they take on UMBC in Dayton.
Howard More Balanced Than They Seem
Howard opened as +2.5 underdogs here, but the money appears to have been flowing in on them early with the current consensus line at +1 with even a few Picks out there. Yes, it is a bit scary to see that much support for a team that is ranked 283rd nationally in offensive efficiency, but that offense has shined much brighter since the start of conference play.
The Bison did go 23-10 overall and 11-3 while winning the regular season MEAC title before winning the conference tournament to earn this automatic bid. And before going on, with UMBC hailing from the America East Conference, this game pits teams from the two lowest ranked conferences in the country per Kenpom. Thus, we see Howard’s conference numbers translating well here against a team from an almost equally bad conference.
The significance of that is that Howard led the MEAC in offensive efficiency at 115.0 (national average 109.2) and in eFG% at 53.7% (average 51.4%). They should dominate in second chances here too, as the Bison also led their conference in offensive rebounding percentage while ranking an excellent 20th in the country in that department.
Moreover, the defense stands up at a national level, ranking 30th in eFG% allowed at 47.4% and an outstanding eighth in turnover percentage forced. As you might expect, Howard led the MEAC in both those metrics as well as in defensive efficiency, making them well balanced on both ends provided the offense plays at the same level it did in conference and not at the poor early season level.
UMBC Needs to Shoot Lights-Out to Win
Now, UMBC finished 24-8 and is currently riding the second longest winning streak in the country with 12 straight wins. They also cruised through the American East Tournament while winning every game by at least 15 points. But then again, two of the three teams they beat in that tourney rank outside the Top 300 in defensive efficiency, and the Vermont team they beat for the championship ranks 247th.
Sure, the Retrievers can shoot lights-out again here, in which case they would probably extend their winning streak. But we do not think they will do that against a team that actually plays defense and forces as many turnovers as Howard does. And if UMBC does not shoot at their usual clip, we think that makes them extremely vulnerable here.
That is because the Retrievers are not nearly as good as the Bison defensively, ranking 192nd in defensive efficiency and 272nd in turnover percentage forced. That reinforces our belief that we will see the hot Howard offense that we saw during the MEAC season. Moreover, UMBC does not figure to get nearly as many second opportunities either, ranking a dismal 340th in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.1%, a figure the dropped further to 24.2% in American East play.
In the end, we think it is more likely that we will see the well-rounded play from Howard we saw throughout the MEAC season than the UMBC scoring machine we saw against poor defenses in the American East Tournament. We are betting on Howard at currently available + odds on the money line, as it will not surprise us if the Bison close as favorites.
THE PICK
Howard +105 Money Line at Bookmaker
We went 2-0 in NCAA Basketball last week, making us 48-41-2 across All Sports with our write-ups. The NCAA Tournament kicks off Tuesday, and we have a play in the first game of the First Four in UMBC vs. Howard on truTV.
UMBC Retrievers vs. Howard Bison
Tuesday, March 17th – 6:40pm ET
March Madness is now upon us, and we see value in the very first game of the First Four Round on Tuesday. We are supporting Howard at + odds on the money line while we still can when they take on UMBC in Dayton.
Howard More Balanced Than They Seem
Howard opened as +2.5 underdogs here, but the money appears to have been flowing in on them early with the current consensus line at +1 with even a few Picks out there. Yes, it is a bit scary to see that much support for a team that is ranked 283rd nationally in offensive efficiency, but that offense has shined much brighter since the start of conference play.
The Bison did go 23-10 overall and 11-3 while winning the regular season MEAC title before winning the conference tournament to earn this automatic bid. And before going on, with UMBC hailing from the America East Conference, this game pits teams from the two lowest ranked conferences in the country per Kenpom. Thus, we see Howard’s conference numbers translating well here against a team from an almost equally bad conference.
The significance of that is that Howard led the MEAC in offensive efficiency at 115.0 (national average 109.2) and in eFG% at 53.7% (average 51.4%). They should dominate in second chances here too, as the Bison also led their conference in offensive rebounding percentage while ranking an excellent 20th in the country in that department.
Moreover, the defense stands up at a national level, ranking 30th in eFG% allowed at 47.4% and an outstanding eighth in turnover percentage forced. As you might expect, Howard led the MEAC in both those metrics as well as in defensive efficiency, making them well balanced on both ends provided the offense plays at the same level it did in conference and not at the poor early season level.
UMBC Needs to Shoot Lights-Out to Win
Now, UMBC finished 24-8 and is currently riding the second longest winning streak in the country with 12 straight wins. They also cruised through the American East Tournament while winning every game by at least 15 points. But then again, two of the three teams they beat in that tourney rank outside the Top 300 in defensive efficiency, and the Vermont team they beat for the championship ranks 247th.
Sure, the Retrievers can shoot lights-out again here, in which case they would probably extend their winning streak. But we do not think they will do that against a team that actually plays defense and forces as many turnovers as Howard does. And if UMBC does not shoot at their usual clip, we think that makes them extremely vulnerable here.
That is because the Retrievers are not nearly as good as the Bison defensively, ranking 192nd in defensive efficiency and 272nd in turnover percentage forced. That reinforces our belief that we will see the hot Howard offense that we saw during the MEAC season. Moreover, UMBC does not figure to get nearly as many second opportunities either, ranking a dismal 340th in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.1%, a figure the dropped further to 24.2% in American East play.
In the end, we think it is more likely that we will see the well-rounded play from Howard we saw throughout the MEAC season than the UMBC scoring machine we saw against poor defenses in the American East Tournament. We are betting on Howard at currently available + odds on the money line, as it will not surprise us if the Bison close as favorites.
THE PICK
Howard +105 Money Line at Bookmaker
