LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 13,821
NCAA Tournament Pick for Thursday: Longhorns to Stick Close to Boilermakers
We are coming off a perfect 3-0 week in the NCAA Tournament with our write-ups, making us 51-41-2 across All Sports. We return with a play for Thursday night from the West Region in Texas vs. Purdue on CBS.
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Thursday, March 26th – 7:10pm ET
We have a nice matchup of two very hot teams in San Jose from the West Region of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. And we are expecting a closer result than the posted line suggests, so we are taking the points with 11th seeded Texas when they take on the 2-seeds from Purdue.
Not the Usual Size Advantage for Purdue
Some may have forgotten that Purdue was the top-ranked team in the country before this season began, as they went on to a disappointing campaign (compared to what was expected) that saw them go 23-8 overall with four losses on the last six games. However, they seemingly flipped a switch once the post-season began, plowing through the Big Ten Tournament while beating Kenpom #1 Michigan in the final before winning their first two games of this tourney safely.
This streak has ascended the Boilermakers to now leading the country in offensive efficiency while ranking ninth in eFG%, led by the playmaking of new all-time NCAA assist leader Braden Smith. But with that said, that elite offense could be facing a tougher challenge than usual here.
One key for Purdue has been ranking 19th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, and a lot of those second chances have resulted in kick-outs for open threes, where they rank eighth nationally at 38.8%. That has worked wonderfully during the current winning streak, but they have also had a size advantage in practically all of those wins.
Their great offensive flow can be disrupted here due to the presence of Texas 7-foot center Matas Vokietaitis and 6-foot-8 forward Dailyn Swain, who have also been their top two scorers during the Longhorns’ unexpected tournament run.
Greatly Improved Defense for Texas
As for Texas, they were literally the Last Team In for March Madness, meaning they would have been left out had Dayton stolen a bid by winning the Atlantic 10 Championship on Selection Sunday. But they did not, and the 11-seeds from Austin have taken full advantage, following up their win in the First Four with consecutive upset wins over sixth-seeded BYU and, most impressively, third-seeded Gonzaga.
Keep in mind that both of those teams are highly efficient offensively, yet a Texas defense that ranks 81st in defensive efficiency and 142nd in eFG% allowed has stepped up, limiting BYU to 71 points and Gonzaga to 68. Moreover, that was after limiting NC State to 66 points in the First Four.
Now, some may expect defensive regression here, but keep in mind that while Texas finished 10th in the SEC in defensive efficiency, the defense has played much better out of conference all season. And at the very least, their size figures to slow the Purdue offense a bit. Plus, while the offense is not at the Boilermakers’ level in efficiency, it is still excellent at 15th nationally.
So, can Texas pull another upset? Maybe or maybe not, but that is not our primary concern. What we do like is that our model currently sets this line at Purdue -4.7 after our most recent adjustments, which has us betting on Texas getting nearly three points more than that in this spot.
THE PICK
Texas +7.5 -108 at Heritage
We are coming off a perfect 3-0 week in the NCAA Tournament with our write-ups, making us 51-41-2 across All Sports. We return with a play for Thursday night from the West Region in Texas vs. Purdue on CBS.
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Thursday, March 26th – 7:10pm ET
We have a nice matchup of two very hot teams in San Jose from the West Region of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. And we are expecting a closer result than the posted line suggests, so we are taking the points with 11th seeded Texas when they take on the 2-seeds from Purdue.
Not the Usual Size Advantage for Purdue
Some may have forgotten that Purdue was the top-ranked team in the country before this season began, as they went on to a disappointing campaign (compared to what was expected) that saw them go 23-8 overall with four losses on the last six games. However, they seemingly flipped a switch once the post-season began, plowing through the Big Ten Tournament while beating Kenpom #1 Michigan in the final before winning their first two games of this tourney safely.
This streak has ascended the Boilermakers to now leading the country in offensive efficiency while ranking ninth in eFG%, led by the playmaking of new all-time NCAA assist leader Braden Smith. But with that said, that elite offense could be facing a tougher challenge than usual here.
One key for Purdue has been ranking 19th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, and a lot of those second chances have resulted in kick-outs for open threes, where they rank eighth nationally at 38.8%. That has worked wonderfully during the current winning streak, but they have also had a size advantage in practically all of those wins.
Their great offensive flow can be disrupted here due to the presence of Texas 7-foot center Matas Vokietaitis and 6-foot-8 forward Dailyn Swain, who have also been their top two scorers during the Longhorns’ unexpected tournament run.
Greatly Improved Defense for Texas
As for Texas, they were literally the Last Team In for March Madness, meaning they would have been left out had Dayton stolen a bid by winning the Atlantic 10 Championship on Selection Sunday. But they did not, and the 11-seeds from Austin have taken full advantage, following up their win in the First Four with consecutive upset wins over sixth-seeded BYU and, most impressively, third-seeded Gonzaga.
Keep in mind that both of those teams are highly efficient offensively, yet a Texas defense that ranks 81st in defensive efficiency and 142nd in eFG% allowed has stepped up, limiting BYU to 71 points and Gonzaga to 68. Moreover, that was after limiting NC State to 66 points in the First Four.
Now, some may expect defensive regression here, but keep in mind that while Texas finished 10th in the SEC in defensive efficiency, the defense has played much better out of conference all season. And at the very least, their size figures to slow the Purdue offense a bit. Plus, while the offense is not at the Boilermakers’ level in efficiency, it is still excellent at 15th nationally.
So, can Texas pull another upset? Maybe or maybe not, but that is not our primary concern. What we do like is that our model currently sets this line at Purdue -4.7 after our most recent adjustments, which has us betting on Texas getting nearly three points more than that in this spot.
THE PICK
Texas +7.5 -108 at Heritage
