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NCAA Tournament Pick for Thursday: Billikens to Tame Bulldogs in Buffalo
We won our first bet of the NCAA Tournament Tuesday, making us 49-41-2 across All Sports with our write-ups. The Round of 64 starts on Thursday, and we have a play in the 8/9 matchup from the Midwest Region in Saint Louis vs. Georgia on CBS.
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Thursday, March 19th – 9:45pm ET
As you might expect, we have a nice matchup in the 8/9 game from the Midwest Region in Buffalo on Thursday night. We are taking the points with ninth seeded Saint Louis in a potential upset when they take on eighth seeded Georgia.
Second in Both eFG% and eFG% Allowed
Saint Louis has had a great season going 28-5 overall, and although they were upset by Dayton 70-69 in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, they looked like the class of the conference all season long. They won the regular season title finishing 15-3 while leading the A10 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency during league play.
Granted, the A10 is not on par with the SEC from which Georgia hails, but the Billikens have proven themselves on a national level. In fact, they may be the most well-balanced mid-major in the country as they are second in the nation in both eFG% and eFG% allowed! This team has no weaknesses from any point on the floor on either end, ranking second in the country in 3-point shooting (40.5%) and 15th in 2-point shooting offensively while simultaneously ranking eighth in 3-point defense and fifth in 2-point defense.
And the Billikens have done all that while playing at one of the fastest tempos in the land, owning the fourth shortest average possession length at 15.1 seconds.
Georgia Vulnerable on Defense
This figures to be a fun game to watch because Georgia also likes to play fast, ranking ninth in average possession at 15.4 seconds. However, after facing a bunch of cupcakes early in the season with a non-conference schedule rated 327th per Kenpom, they were rather inconsistent while finishing with a 10-8 SEC mark. Yes, their in-conference schedule was tougher than St. Louis given the difference in the conferences, but this still looks like a tough matchup.
The Dawgs look vulnerable on defense, where they rank 111th in eFG% allowed, 97th in 2-point defense and perhaps most distressingly regarding this matchup, 169th in 3-point defense. That is obviously not ideal against one of the very best offenses in the country, and while Robbie Avila is the Saint Louis superstar, Georgia cannot simply key on him with the Billikens having an insanely deep roster with five players averaging double-digits and three averaging in the 9s!
Now, the Bulldogs do rank an excellent 14th in offensive efficiency, but the problem there is that most of their scoring comes inside. That is because they rank 28th in 2-point shooting but a mere 170th in 3-point shooting, which should lead to a huge advantage for the Billikens in points beyond the arc.
In an expected fast-paced game to the liking of both teams, the Saint Louis edges in 3-point shooting and defense has us thinking they will pull the minor upset. But with the hook currently available on a field goal, our official bet is taking the 2.5 points with the Billikens.
THE PICK
Saint Louis +2.5 -112 at Bet105
We won our first bet of the NCAA Tournament Tuesday, making us 49-41-2 across All Sports with our write-ups. The Round of 64 starts on Thursday, and we have a play in the 8/9 matchup from the Midwest Region in Saint Louis vs. Georgia on CBS.
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Thursday, March 19th – 9:45pm ET
As you might expect, we have a nice matchup in the 8/9 game from the Midwest Region in Buffalo on Thursday night. We are taking the points with ninth seeded Saint Louis in a potential upset when they take on eighth seeded Georgia.
Second in Both eFG% and eFG% Allowed
Saint Louis has had a great season going 28-5 overall, and although they were upset by Dayton 70-69 in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, they looked like the class of the conference all season long. They won the regular season title finishing 15-3 while leading the A10 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency during league play.
Granted, the A10 is not on par with the SEC from which Georgia hails, but the Billikens have proven themselves on a national level. In fact, they may be the most well-balanced mid-major in the country as they are second in the nation in both eFG% and eFG% allowed! This team has no weaknesses from any point on the floor on either end, ranking second in the country in 3-point shooting (40.5%) and 15th in 2-point shooting offensively while simultaneously ranking eighth in 3-point defense and fifth in 2-point defense.
And the Billikens have done all that while playing at one of the fastest tempos in the land, owning the fourth shortest average possession length at 15.1 seconds.
Georgia Vulnerable on Defense
This figures to be a fun game to watch because Georgia also likes to play fast, ranking ninth in average possession at 15.4 seconds. However, after facing a bunch of cupcakes early in the season with a non-conference schedule rated 327th per Kenpom, they were rather inconsistent while finishing with a 10-8 SEC mark. Yes, their in-conference schedule was tougher than St. Louis given the difference in the conferences, but this still looks like a tough matchup.
The Dawgs look vulnerable on defense, where they rank 111th in eFG% allowed, 97th in 2-point defense and perhaps most distressingly regarding this matchup, 169th in 3-point defense. That is obviously not ideal against one of the very best offenses in the country, and while Robbie Avila is the Saint Louis superstar, Georgia cannot simply key on him with the Billikens having an insanely deep roster with five players averaging double-digits and three averaging in the 9s!
Now, the Bulldogs do rank an excellent 14th in offensive efficiency, but the problem there is that most of their scoring comes inside. That is because they rank 28th in 2-point shooting but a mere 170th in 3-point shooting, which should lead to a huge advantage for the Billikens in points beyond the arc.
In an expected fast-paced game to the liking of both teams, the Saint Louis edges in 3-point shooting and defense has us thinking they will pull the minor upset. But with the hook currently available on a field goal, our official bet is taking the 2.5 points with the Billikens.
THE PICK
Saint Louis +2.5 -112 at Bet105
