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NCAA Tournament Pick for Saturday: Wolverines to Claw Past Wildcats in Final Four
We are now on a 9-0 run with our NCAAB write-ups after a Crown winner Thursday, including 6-0 so far in the NCAA Tournament. Next, we have a Final Four play for Saturday in a battle of 1-seeds between Michigan and Arizona on TBS.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, April 4th – 8:49pm ET
Some may see the second Final Four matchup of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday as a pseudo–National Championship Game, as it pits the current Top 2 overall teams on Kenpom. And we are backing the Wolverines of Michigan as scant favorites when they take on Arizona in Indianapolis.
Interior Defense Key for Michigan
Michigan was the #1 seed in the Midwest, and they are the #1 team on Kenpom. You would be hard-pressed to find a more balanced team than the Wolverines, as they rank fifth in efficiency and sixth in eFG% offensively while also leading the country in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed!
They have topped 90 points in all four games of this tournament, bringing their number of 90-point games for this season to 16. This is a team that can score from anywhere, although their strength is closer to the basket, where they are second in the nation in 2-point shooting at 61.3%.
That is what happens when you have three big men that project as NBA Draft picks in 7-foot-3 Aday Mara (who is also an elite defender), along with Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson both at 6-foot-9. Moreover, this is not a one-dimensional offense like Arizona can be with everything coming inside, as Michigan is also 30th nationally in 3-point shooting at 36.9%.
But the biggest key we see for Michigan here is their interior defense that ranks third in the land in 2-point defense, yielding just a 44.3% success rate. That becomes more critical in this game given the Wildcats’ offensive scheme.
Arizona May Need More 3s Than Usual
Arizona was the #1 seed from the West, and they are ranked #2 overall on Kenpom. And they match up well with Michigan defensively, ranking second in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Our concern here though is with the offense, as while the Wildcats are fourth in efficiency, they are a more modest 35th in eFG% and their offensive breakdown is frighteningly one-sided.
That may not be obvious by their raw ranking that have them rated higher in 3-point shooting (36th) than 2-point shooting (52nd), but the caveat there is they do not take many shots from beyond the arc. In fact, they rank 363rd out of 365 Division I teams on 3PA/FGA ratio. That has led to some long scoring droughts when the 2s are not falling, and we can see several such lulls here against the three Michigan bigs keying an elite 2-point defense.
This could take the Cats out of their comfort zone and force them to take more 3-pointers, and if that happens, we are skeptical of them maintaining their 36.7% success rate with the increased volume.
In the end, we think the difference in this game will be the inability of an Arizona offense that does an obscene percentage of its scoring from inside the arc having its normal success inside. This has us betting on Michigan as tiny favorites to advance to the Championship Game.
THE PICK
Michigan -1.5 -104 at Bet105
We are now on a 9-0 run with our NCAAB write-ups after a Crown winner Thursday, including 6-0 so far in the NCAA Tournament. Next, we have a Final Four play for Saturday in a battle of 1-seeds between Michigan and Arizona on TBS.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, April 4th – 8:49pm ET
Some may see the second Final Four matchup of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday as a pseudo–National Championship Game, as it pits the current Top 2 overall teams on Kenpom. And we are backing the Wolverines of Michigan as scant favorites when they take on Arizona in Indianapolis.
Interior Defense Key for Michigan
Michigan was the #1 seed in the Midwest, and they are the #1 team on Kenpom. You would be hard-pressed to find a more balanced team than the Wolverines, as they rank fifth in efficiency and sixth in eFG% offensively while also leading the country in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed!
They have topped 90 points in all four games of this tournament, bringing their number of 90-point games for this season to 16. This is a team that can score from anywhere, although their strength is closer to the basket, where they are second in the nation in 2-point shooting at 61.3%.
That is what happens when you have three big men that project as NBA Draft picks in 7-foot-3 Aday Mara (who is also an elite defender), along with Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson both at 6-foot-9. Moreover, this is not a one-dimensional offense like Arizona can be with everything coming inside, as Michigan is also 30th nationally in 3-point shooting at 36.9%.
But the biggest key we see for Michigan here is their interior defense that ranks third in the land in 2-point defense, yielding just a 44.3% success rate. That becomes more critical in this game given the Wildcats’ offensive scheme.
Arizona May Need More 3s Than Usual
Arizona was the #1 seed from the West, and they are ranked #2 overall on Kenpom. And they match up well with Michigan defensively, ranking second in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Our concern here though is with the offense, as while the Wildcats are fourth in efficiency, they are a more modest 35th in eFG% and their offensive breakdown is frighteningly one-sided.
That may not be obvious by their raw ranking that have them rated higher in 3-point shooting (36th) than 2-point shooting (52nd), but the caveat there is they do not take many shots from beyond the arc. In fact, they rank 363rd out of 365 Division I teams on 3PA/FGA ratio. That has led to some long scoring droughts when the 2s are not falling, and we can see several such lulls here against the three Michigan bigs keying an elite 2-point defense.
This could take the Cats out of their comfort zone and force them to take more 3-pointers, and if that happens, we are skeptical of them maintaining their 36.7% success rate with the increased volume.
In the end, we think the difference in this game will be the inability of an Arizona offense that does an obscene percentage of its scoring from inside the arc having its normal success inside. This has us betting on Michigan as tiny favorites to advance to the Championship Game.
THE PICK
Michigan -1.5 -104 at Bet105
