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NCAA Tournament Pick for Saturday: Illini to Fight Past Hawkeyes Handily in Houston
We are now 4-0 in the NCAA Tournament with our write-ups after winning Thursday, making us 52-41-2 across All Sports with one play pending Friday. We now have a play in the Elite Eight for Saturday in an All-Big Ten matchup between Iowa and Illinois on TBS.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, March 28th – 6:09pm ET
We are projecting an easier win than the posted line indicates in the Elite Eight matchup from the South Region on Saturday. Thus, we are laying the points with Illinois when they take on their fellow Big Ten members from Iowa in Houston.
Can Illini Win by More Than Last Meeting?
Third-seeded Illinois reached this point with a mild 65-55 upset of second-seeded Houston on Thursday as 2.5-point underdogs in a semi-road game here at the Toyota Center. They also won the regular season meeting between these teams in hostile territory in Iowa, and while the final score was 75-69, that 6-point margin was deceptive as it was the closest the Hawkeyes came in a game the Illini once led by 18 points.
Illinois is now 27-8 and ranked fourth in the country overall after finishing second in the Big Ten during the season behind only the overall #1 team on Kenpom in Michigan. Yes, they were upset by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament, but they have shaken that off quickly in the Big Dance, beating Penn by 35 points, VCU by 21 and then a Houston team that many considered a national title contender by 10.
The Illini are ranked second in the country in offensive efficiency while excelling in most phases. They do not beat themselves, ranking ninth nationally in offense turnover percentage, and they generate loads of second chances while ranking third in offensive rebounding percentage. But the biggest key to this game is Illinois’s expected dominance inside. They rank 24th in 2-point shooting and are facing a soft Iowa interior ranked 282nd in 2-point defense.
And let’s not forget that Illinois is not all about offense, ranking 21st in defensive efficiency and 27th in eFG% allowed, nor that Iowa represents a class-drop from an elite Houston team they just beat by double digits.
Midnight for Cinderella Hawkeyes
Iowa has had a nice run for a 9-seed, most notably by shocking #1 seed Florida in the second round. For the record though, despite being a 3-seed, Illinois is currently ranked two spots higher than the top-seeded Gators, now down to sixth on Kenpom. Plus, the Gators committed 11 turnovers accounting for 18% of their possessions in the upset, which cannot be counted on against a disciplined Illinois offense.
Moreover, if we are right about the Illini getting whatever they want inside offensively, we simply do not see a way for Iowa to keep up. Sure, they can get hot beyond the 3-point arc, or Bennett Stirtz can go on one of his scoring sprees. But we feel that neither will happen with Illinois ranked 33rd in 3-point defense and their defense having the ability to focus mainly on Stirtz with Iowa’s second leading scorer Tavion Banks being barely in double digits at 10.4 PPG.
Iowa has been a nice story, but we think Midnight will come for Cinderella here with Iowa having no answers to stopping Illinois inside and the Illini have the better defense. We are betting on Illinois while expecting a double-digit victory in the Elite Eight.
THE PICK
Illinois -7 -108 at Heritage
We are now 4-0 in the NCAA Tournament with our write-ups after winning Thursday, making us 52-41-2 across All Sports with one play pending Friday. We now have a play in the Elite Eight for Saturday in an All-Big Ten matchup between Iowa and Illinois on TBS.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, March 28th – 6:09pm ET
We are projecting an easier win than the posted line indicates in the Elite Eight matchup from the South Region on Saturday. Thus, we are laying the points with Illinois when they take on their fellow Big Ten members from Iowa in Houston.
Can Illini Win by More Than Last Meeting?
Third-seeded Illinois reached this point with a mild 65-55 upset of second-seeded Houston on Thursday as 2.5-point underdogs in a semi-road game here at the Toyota Center. They also won the regular season meeting between these teams in hostile territory in Iowa, and while the final score was 75-69, that 6-point margin was deceptive as it was the closest the Hawkeyes came in a game the Illini once led by 18 points.
Illinois is now 27-8 and ranked fourth in the country overall after finishing second in the Big Ten during the season behind only the overall #1 team on Kenpom in Michigan. Yes, they were upset by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament, but they have shaken that off quickly in the Big Dance, beating Penn by 35 points, VCU by 21 and then a Houston team that many considered a national title contender by 10.
The Illini are ranked second in the country in offensive efficiency while excelling in most phases. They do not beat themselves, ranking ninth nationally in offense turnover percentage, and they generate loads of second chances while ranking third in offensive rebounding percentage. But the biggest key to this game is Illinois’s expected dominance inside. They rank 24th in 2-point shooting and are facing a soft Iowa interior ranked 282nd in 2-point defense.
And let’s not forget that Illinois is not all about offense, ranking 21st in defensive efficiency and 27th in eFG% allowed, nor that Iowa represents a class-drop from an elite Houston team they just beat by double digits.
Midnight for Cinderella Hawkeyes
Iowa has had a nice run for a 9-seed, most notably by shocking #1 seed Florida in the second round. For the record though, despite being a 3-seed, Illinois is currently ranked two spots higher than the top-seeded Gators, now down to sixth on Kenpom. Plus, the Gators committed 11 turnovers accounting for 18% of their possessions in the upset, which cannot be counted on against a disciplined Illinois offense.
Moreover, if we are right about the Illini getting whatever they want inside offensively, we simply do not see a way for Iowa to keep up. Sure, they can get hot beyond the 3-point arc, or Bennett Stirtz can go on one of his scoring sprees. But we feel that neither will happen with Illinois ranked 33rd in 3-point defense and their defense having the ability to focus mainly on Stirtz with Iowa’s second leading scorer Tavion Banks being barely in double digits at 10.4 PPG.
Iowa has been a nice story, but we think Midnight will come for Cinderella here with Iowa having no answers to stopping Illinois inside and the Illini have the better defense. We are betting on Illinois while expecting a double-digit victory in the Elite Eight.
THE PICK
Illinois -7 -108 at Heritage
