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NCAA Tournament Pick for Monday: Huskies to Hang Tough in Championship Game
We are now on a 10-0 run with our NCAAB write-ups including 7-0 in the NCAA Tournament after our Michigan romp on Saturday. Our last chance to finish March Madness undefeated comes in the UConn vs. Michigan Championship Game Monday on TBS.
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines
Monday, April 6th – 8:50pm ET
We are sad to see this NCAA Tournament come to an end, but such is the case as we have reached the Championship Game from Indianapolis. And we are taking the points with Connecticut when they take on Michigan.
Lack of Turnovers Only Flaw for Michigan
Michigan was the top seed in the Midwest, and they are the #1 team in the country on Kenpom. Furthermore, nobody can argue that ranking after their 91-73 dismantling of #2 Arizona Saturday in a game that was really not even as close as that 18-point final margin. This may be the most balanced team in the country on both ends of the court.
Offensively, the Wolverines are now up to fourth in efficiency and sixth in eFG%, and the Final Four marked the fifth straight game that they have topped 90 points, setting a record for the most 90-point games in one NCAA Tournament. They have now scored at least 90 points a total of 17 times this season with the ability to score from anywhere, ranking fourth in the country in 2-point shooting at 60.9% and 25th in 3-point shooting at 37.1%.
Moreover, as great as the offense has been, the defense has been even better while leading the nation in both efficiency and eFG% allowed. That was on full display Saturday against an Arizona team that entered that contest riding the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 straight games.
However, not all the news was good for Michigan with one of their three big men Yaxel Lendeborg, who is third in the Player of the Year Ratings on Kenpom, missing much of the game after rolling his ankle and suffering a sprained MCL. However, his X-Rays came back clean and he is continuing to receive treatment. Reports also indicate that his limp was negligible Sunday, so he expects to suit up for this championship.
But another concern may turn out to be the more important one. You see, as dominant as the Michigan defense has been, it has mainly been due to great man-to-man defense without really applying pressure and forcing turnovers. The Wolverines are surprisingly just 277th in turnover percentage forced, and that should result in UConn successfully slowing this game to their preferred pace.
Slow Pace Helps Keep UConn Close
Connecticut was the second seed in the East, but they were a small 2-point underdog facing third seeded Illinois on Saturday before pulling the 71-62 mini-upset. And while their efficiencies may not be at Michigan levels, the Huskies are also well-balanced ranking 27th in offensive efficiency and eighth in defensive efficiency.
And the Huskies will certainly be unfazed after knocking off two straight Top 5 Kenpom teams and under the leadership of one of the best big-game coaches ever in Dan Hurley. So, you can count on UConn having a game-plan in place to try and offset Michigan’s big height advantage.
For starters, the Huskies play at a methodical pace to begin with, ranking 319th in Tempo Rating and 340th in average possession length. And as mentioned earlier, we feel that UConn will be able to run their offensive sets with Michigan not forcing many turnovers. Also, at least the Huskies are competent beyond the 3-point arc, so the Wolverines won’t simply be able to defend within 15 feet of the basket like they were able to do against Arizona.
The bottom line is that the ability to slow the pace while working for the best shot is an excellent trait for a decided underdog. We think that Connecticut fits that profile perfectly, so we are taking the points with the Huskies while looking for a tightly contested National Championship Game.
Note: We bought this line up to +8 -120 when that price was available Sunday morning. Sadly, that is no longer available so this grading will be based on the line below.
THE PICK
Connecticut +7 -110 at Bet105
We are now on a 10-0 run with our NCAAB write-ups including 7-0 in the NCAA Tournament after our Michigan romp on Saturday. Our last chance to finish March Madness undefeated comes in the UConn vs. Michigan Championship Game Monday on TBS.
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines
Monday, April 6th – 8:50pm ET
We are sad to see this NCAA Tournament come to an end, but such is the case as we have reached the Championship Game from Indianapolis. And we are taking the points with Connecticut when they take on Michigan.
Lack of Turnovers Only Flaw for Michigan
Michigan was the top seed in the Midwest, and they are the #1 team in the country on Kenpom. Furthermore, nobody can argue that ranking after their 91-73 dismantling of #2 Arizona Saturday in a game that was really not even as close as that 18-point final margin. This may be the most balanced team in the country on both ends of the court.
Offensively, the Wolverines are now up to fourth in efficiency and sixth in eFG%, and the Final Four marked the fifth straight game that they have topped 90 points, setting a record for the most 90-point games in one NCAA Tournament. They have now scored at least 90 points a total of 17 times this season with the ability to score from anywhere, ranking fourth in the country in 2-point shooting at 60.9% and 25th in 3-point shooting at 37.1%.
Moreover, as great as the offense has been, the defense has been even better while leading the nation in both efficiency and eFG% allowed. That was on full display Saturday against an Arizona team that entered that contest riding the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 straight games.
However, not all the news was good for Michigan with one of their three big men Yaxel Lendeborg, who is third in the Player of the Year Ratings on Kenpom, missing much of the game after rolling his ankle and suffering a sprained MCL. However, his X-Rays came back clean and he is continuing to receive treatment. Reports also indicate that his limp was negligible Sunday, so he expects to suit up for this championship.
But another concern may turn out to be the more important one. You see, as dominant as the Michigan defense has been, it has mainly been due to great man-to-man defense without really applying pressure and forcing turnovers. The Wolverines are surprisingly just 277th in turnover percentage forced, and that should result in UConn successfully slowing this game to their preferred pace.
Slow Pace Helps Keep UConn Close
Connecticut was the second seed in the East, but they were a small 2-point underdog facing third seeded Illinois on Saturday before pulling the 71-62 mini-upset. And while their efficiencies may not be at Michigan levels, the Huskies are also well-balanced ranking 27th in offensive efficiency and eighth in defensive efficiency.
And the Huskies will certainly be unfazed after knocking off two straight Top 5 Kenpom teams and under the leadership of one of the best big-game coaches ever in Dan Hurley. So, you can count on UConn having a game-plan in place to try and offset Michigan’s big height advantage.
For starters, the Huskies play at a methodical pace to begin with, ranking 319th in Tempo Rating and 340th in average possession length. And as mentioned earlier, we feel that UConn will be able to run their offensive sets with Michigan not forcing many turnovers. Also, at least the Huskies are competent beyond the 3-point arc, so the Wolverines won’t simply be able to defend within 15 feet of the basket like they were able to do against Arizona.
The bottom line is that the ability to slow the pace while working for the best shot is an excellent trait for a decided underdog. We think that Connecticut fits that profile perfectly, so we are taking the points with the Huskies while looking for a tightly contested National Championship Game.
Note: We bought this line up to +8 -120 when that price was available Sunday morning. Sadly, that is no longer available so this grading will be based on the line below.
THE PICK
Connecticut +7 -110 at Bet105
