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NCAA Tournament Pick for Friday: Hawkeyes to Declaw Tigers in Orlando
We are a perfect 2-0 in the NCAA Tournament and 50-41-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after an easy win Thursday with Saint Louis. We go to the South Region Friday with a play in the 8/9 game, where the lower seed is favored in Iowa vs. Clemson on TNT.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigers
Friday, March 20th – 6:50pm ET
A key injury has altered the complexion of the 8/9 matchup from the South Region of the NCAA Tournament in Orlando on Friday night. The 9-seeds from Iowa are now small favorites despite being the lower seed, and we look for the Hawkeyes to prevail rather safely when they take on 8th-seeded Clemson.
Welling Injury Huge for Clemson
Let us start by saying this game figures to be played at a snail’s pace with both these teams sitting outside of the Top 330 in Tempo Rating, which makes every possession more critical. Well, Clemson has thrived with that plodding pace as they come in with a 24-10 record, but they will be missing a key piece to that success.
The Tigers lost 6-foot-10 forward Carter Welling and his 10.2 points plus 5.4 rebounds per game to a torn ACL in the ACC Tournament last week. Welling made an imposing tandem with the 6-foot-7 leading scorer RJ Godfrey (11.9 PPG), and that combo would have given trouble to an Iowa team that is vulnerable in the paint, ranking 284th in 2-point defense. Of course, that is still a concern, but it is now more manageable with only having to focus mainly on Godfrey.
And truth be told, even with a full roster, Clemson is not a great offensive team anyway, ranking 72nd in offensive efficiency and 121st in eFG%. To make matters worse, the Tigers do not generate many second chances while ranking 260th in offensive rebounding percentage, which becomes huge in a game that should have limited possessions.
Iowa’s Stirtz Best Player on the Court?
Iowa may have the slightly worse record here at 21-12, but they are clearly the better shooting team in this game. The Hawkeyes are averaging 75.2 points per game despite their 358th ranked Tempo Rating of 63.1! They have accomplished that by ranking 31st in the country in offensive efficiency and a better 16th in eFG%.
Also, a game where both teams like to play slow amplifies the importance of having the best scorer on the court, and Iowa has that in the form of Bennett Stirtz, who is averaging 20.0 points per game. Stirtz is shooting 37.6% from beyond the 3-point arc, and he should be able to shoot over a very good Clemson defense that is now without its tallest player.
Remember also that Stirtz propelled Drake to a first round upset of Missouri last year before transferring to Iowa.
Although it would not be a surprise this time around, we do see a similar result this year for his new team with Stirtz again doing the heavy lifting. Given Iowa’s big edges in offensive efficiency and expected second chances, we are betting on the lower seeded but slightly favored Hawkeyes to advance.
THE PICK
Iowa -2 -104 at Bet105
We are a perfect 2-0 in the NCAA Tournament and 50-41-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after an easy win Thursday with Saint Louis. We go to the South Region Friday with a play in the 8/9 game, where the lower seed is favored in Iowa vs. Clemson on TNT.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigers
Friday, March 20th – 6:50pm ET
A key injury has altered the complexion of the 8/9 matchup from the South Region of the NCAA Tournament in Orlando on Friday night. The 9-seeds from Iowa are now small favorites despite being the lower seed, and we look for the Hawkeyes to prevail rather safely when they take on 8th-seeded Clemson.
Welling Injury Huge for Clemson
Let us start by saying this game figures to be played at a snail’s pace with both these teams sitting outside of the Top 330 in Tempo Rating, which makes every possession more critical. Well, Clemson has thrived with that plodding pace as they come in with a 24-10 record, but they will be missing a key piece to that success.
The Tigers lost 6-foot-10 forward Carter Welling and his 10.2 points plus 5.4 rebounds per game to a torn ACL in the ACC Tournament last week. Welling made an imposing tandem with the 6-foot-7 leading scorer RJ Godfrey (11.9 PPG), and that combo would have given trouble to an Iowa team that is vulnerable in the paint, ranking 284th in 2-point defense. Of course, that is still a concern, but it is now more manageable with only having to focus mainly on Godfrey.
And truth be told, even with a full roster, Clemson is not a great offensive team anyway, ranking 72nd in offensive efficiency and 121st in eFG%. To make matters worse, the Tigers do not generate many second chances while ranking 260th in offensive rebounding percentage, which becomes huge in a game that should have limited possessions.
Iowa’s Stirtz Best Player on the Court?
Iowa may have the slightly worse record here at 21-12, but they are clearly the better shooting team in this game. The Hawkeyes are averaging 75.2 points per game despite their 358th ranked Tempo Rating of 63.1! They have accomplished that by ranking 31st in the country in offensive efficiency and a better 16th in eFG%.
Also, a game where both teams like to play slow amplifies the importance of having the best scorer on the court, and Iowa has that in the form of Bennett Stirtz, who is averaging 20.0 points per game. Stirtz is shooting 37.6% from beyond the 3-point arc, and he should be able to shoot over a very good Clemson defense that is now without its tallest player.
Remember also that Stirtz propelled Drake to a first round upset of Missouri last year before transferring to Iowa.
Although it would not be a surprise this time around, we do see a similar result this year for his new team with Stirtz again doing the heavy lifting. Given Iowa’s big edges in offensive efficiency and expected second chances, we are betting on the lower seeded but slightly favored Hawkeyes to advance.
THE PICK
Iowa -2 -104 at Bet105
