Navy +2.5 1Q (+100) VS Airforce

[kingken18]

With Navy playing at home in the Armed Forces matchup, I think their best effort will come in the first quarter and they will keep it close or outright win the first quarter. I have a list of trends that I will list below that supports my pick.

Airforce 1Q results last 5 games (Home team score, Away team score):
Airforce 7, Wyoming 14
Airforce 0, San Diego State 0
San Jose 6, Airforce 3
Airforce 22, Utah State 0
Sam Houston State 0, Airforce 3

Navy 1Q results last 5 games (Home team score, Away team score):
Charlotte 0, Navy 0
Navy 0, North Texas 3
Navy 14, USF 7
Memphis 7, Navy 14
Navy 7, Wagner 0

Watching Film, Airforce does start very slow and they operate slowly as well (32 seconds per play, ranked 133/last in NCAA). Navy is definitely hit or miss in the first quarter and has played inferior competition to Army. They operate slowly as well (30.8 seconds per play, ranked 131) but run the wonky run-only offense, which milks the clock. Airforce has a duel threat quarter back that does it all for their team. If Navy can run long methodical drives in the first quarter, put up at least a FG, and keep Airforce QB in check, I think this has a chance to cover, given the type of game it is.

BOL!

 

[kingken18]

Update: Airforce do it all QB got injured last game and is OUT today. New QB Jensen Jones has minimal pay in his 4 years at AF. In 4 years for he has one incomplete pass attempt and 23 rushes for minimal yards. Navy may be going with their back up QB Braxton Woodson for the second week as well due to injuries. Started last week and beat Charlotte 14-0). He's a Freshman duel threat. Good runner but not a great passer, which is fine in this Navy offense.. Went 5-14 last week but should have went 8 or 9-14 due to drops. Had some good scrambles but overall you could tell he was the back up for sure.

The QB issues for both teams makes me feel more confident about Navy +2.5 1stQ. In some books its Navy +1.5 and Navy +0.5. Unless Jenson Jones is some secret weapon, I see a slow start for Airforce and find value in Navy at the start of the game.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Good stuff Ken

 

[kingken18]

Thank you! Looking good so far 0-0 with 5 mins left in the first. Navy just got the ball at their own 43, a long methodical drive or some points here would be great

 

[kingken18]

Navy +2.5 1Q (+100) Cashes! Scores 0-0 going into the 2nd.