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MLB Pick for Wednesday: Lots of Tallies in Toronto Today
We fell to 2-6 with our MLB write-ups this year on Tuesday with a 2-run ninth inning ruining our Under. We are still +10.69 overall in our MLB Picks thread and we have an afternoon play for Wednesday in the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays matchup in Toronto.
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, April 29th – 3:07pm ET
We have an afternoon matchup Wednesday that pits two struggling starting pitchers and two offenses that happen to be at their best splits today. This has us supporting the Over when Brayan Bello and the Red Sox take on Eric Lauer and the Blue Jays early in Toronto at 3:07pm ET.
Peripherals Not Good for Bello
Bello was highly regarded when he first came up, but he was underwhelming his first three seasons despite occasional glimpses of greatness. Some may feel he came into his own last year finishing with a 3.35 ERA over 166.2 innings, but we are not so sure as that was accomplished by an xFIP more than a full run higher at 4.39 while posting a weak K/BB ratio of 6.70/3.18 per nine innings.
Well, although we are only talking about five starts this year, those command issues have not only persisted, but they have gotten worse. The K/BB stands at a disgusting 6.14/5.32 per nine innings with high pitch counts limiting his to 22 innings in those five outings. And this time the ERA is not deceptive at 9.00, as he has just one Quality Start and he was awful last time out in Baltimore allowing eight earned runs on 13 hits in 3.1 frames!
There is not much to like peripherally either, as his fastball velocity is down to 93.7 MPH from 95.1 MPH last year, his soft-contact rate has plummeted to 8.0% from 13.1% and his has a below average Stuff+ of 93, including a measly 81 for his fastball.
Granted, the Toronto offense has not been great overall, but the best offensive split for the Blue Jays applies today as they have an above average wRC+ of 105 against right-handers at home.
Lauer Not Much of a Stopgap
Lauer will not be in the starting rotation for long for the Blue Jays as he is just filling the spot of the injured Max Scherzer, and frankly, he has not been much of a stopgap. The southpaw comes in at 1-3 with an ugly 6.75 ERA and 5.63 xFIP, and there is nothing in his peripherals to indicate that those numbers are fluky.
Eric also has a soft K/BB ratio of 7.54/4.76 per nine innings, and he has actually been lucky with a .258 BABIP, meaning that the ERA should probably be worse. He will not blow people away with a 90.3 MPH fastball and batters are making consistent contact with his swinging strike rate at a puny 6.9%. And as you might expect based on those metrics, his overall Stuff+ of just 85 leaves a lot to be desired.
Moreover, he too is facing a Boston offense at its best offensive split, with a whopping wRC+ of 130 against left-handers on the road.
Thus, in a matchup of two struggling pitchers with seemingly no peripherals to suggest any upside, and two offenses in their best situations, we are betting on the Over north of the border Wednesday.
THE PICK
Over 8.5 -102 at Heritage
We fell to 2-6 with our MLB write-ups this year on Tuesday with a 2-run ninth inning ruining our Under. We are still +10.69 overall in our MLB Picks thread and we have an afternoon play for Wednesday in the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays matchup in Toronto.
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, April 29th – 3:07pm ET
We have an afternoon matchup Wednesday that pits two struggling starting pitchers and two offenses that happen to be at their best splits today. This has us supporting the Over when Brayan Bello and the Red Sox take on Eric Lauer and the Blue Jays early in Toronto at 3:07pm ET.
Peripherals Not Good for Bello
Bello was highly regarded when he first came up, but he was underwhelming his first three seasons despite occasional glimpses of greatness. Some may feel he came into his own last year finishing with a 3.35 ERA over 166.2 innings, but we are not so sure as that was accomplished by an xFIP more than a full run higher at 4.39 while posting a weak K/BB ratio of 6.70/3.18 per nine innings.
Well, although we are only talking about five starts this year, those command issues have not only persisted, but they have gotten worse. The K/BB stands at a disgusting 6.14/5.32 per nine innings with high pitch counts limiting his to 22 innings in those five outings. And this time the ERA is not deceptive at 9.00, as he has just one Quality Start and he was awful last time out in Baltimore allowing eight earned runs on 13 hits in 3.1 frames!
There is not much to like peripherally either, as his fastball velocity is down to 93.7 MPH from 95.1 MPH last year, his soft-contact rate has plummeted to 8.0% from 13.1% and his has a below average Stuff+ of 93, including a measly 81 for his fastball.
Granted, the Toronto offense has not been great overall, but the best offensive split for the Blue Jays applies today as they have an above average wRC+ of 105 against right-handers at home.
Lauer Not Much of a Stopgap
Lauer will not be in the starting rotation for long for the Blue Jays as he is just filling the spot of the injured Max Scherzer, and frankly, he has not been much of a stopgap. The southpaw comes in at 1-3 with an ugly 6.75 ERA and 5.63 xFIP, and there is nothing in his peripherals to indicate that those numbers are fluky.
Eric also has a soft K/BB ratio of 7.54/4.76 per nine innings, and he has actually been lucky with a .258 BABIP, meaning that the ERA should probably be worse. He will not blow people away with a 90.3 MPH fastball and batters are making consistent contact with his swinging strike rate at a puny 6.9%. And as you might expect based on those metrics, his overall Stuff+ of just 85 leaves a lot to be desired.
Moreover, he too is facing a Boston offense at its best offensive split, with a whopping wRC+ of 130 against left-handers on the road.
Thus, in a matchup of two struggling pitchers with seemingly no peripherals to suggest any upside, and two offenses in their best situations, we are betting on the Over north of the border Wednesday.
THE PICK
Over 8.5 -102 at Heritage
