LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 13,883
MLB Pick for Wednesday: Not a Lot of Tallies Expected in Texas
We improved to 2-3 in MLB with our write-ups after an easy winner with the Brewers on Tuesday. We are now looking to get to .500 on Wednesday, as we see good value in the Pirates vs. Rangers matchup in Arlington.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, April 22nd – 8:05pm ET
We see this as a matchup of two pitchers with mad potential going forward. Therefore, we are backing the Under when Braxton Ashcraft and the Pirates visit Jack Leiter and the Rangers in Arlington, TX.
Ashcraft Starting to Fulfill Vast Potential
Before getting into the nuts and bolts of this matchup, consider that Globe Life Field in Arlington has quietly become one of the most Under-friendly ballparks in baseball. The Under was 51-29-1 here last season, and it is 6-0-1 so far in 2026.
Back to this game, the Pirates are high on Ashcroft, and it is very easy to see why. He broke into the majors last season splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen with eight of his 26 appearances being starts, and he finished with a very nice 2.71 ERA and 3.54 xFIP over 69.2 innings. He had a nice K-Rate of 9.17/9, although he did struggle with command with the walk rate at 3.10/9.
Fast forward to this season and while Braxton is only 1-1 through four starts, he is sporting an excellent 2.38 ERA and 2.97 xFIP, with the xFIP ranking 13th in baseball among pitchers with at least 20 innings. He has raised the K-Rate to an excellent 10.72/9 while improving the walks to 2.78/9. Yes, he was charged with five runs allowed last time out, but only two of the runs were earned, maintaining his streak of allowing two earned runs or less in all four starts.
Ashcraft has raised the usage of his cutter to 29.6% this year, making it his second most frequently thrown pitch behind his 96.4 MPH fastball at 31.4%. That has proven to be an excellent choice and could be a key to a breakout season, as he has one of the best cutters in the league per Stuff+ with a rating of 124!
Moreover, once he exits, the Pittsburgh bullpen has been solid ranking eighth in the majors with a 3.55 ERA.
Leiter has Nice Stuff
Leiter is also 1-1 through four starts, but with a deceiving 4.87 ERA. That figure is skewed by one bad start against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, which is probably forgivable, where he allowed five earned runs in 3.2 innings. That has a major effect on the ERA this early in the season, and his xFIP is over a full run better at 3.67.
Jack has always had nice stuff, and that is the case again this year with four pitches out of his vast 6-pitch arsenal rated over 100 on Stuff+, naturally led by his fastball at 109. That has helped lead to outstanding K-Rate of 10.62/9. The one thing that has held Leiter back throughout his career is control, and that has again been an issue this year with the walk rate at an ugly 3.98/9.
Walks aside, Jack has still been unlucky with a BABIP allowed .340, and his career high 14.1% swinging strike rate fueling all the strikeouts help alleviate the extra traffic created by the walks. So, once the BABIP normalizes, the ERA should converge toward the much better xFIP.
And the Texas bullpen had been stellar, ranking second in the league with a 2.81 ERA.
In the end, what we have here is two starting pitchers with great potential and two good bullpens pitching in an Under-friendly stadium. All of that has us betting on the Under on Wednesday.
THE PICK
Under 8 -104 at Heritage
We improved to 2-3 in MLB with our write-ups after an easy winner with the Brewers on Tuesday. We are now looking to get to .500 on Wednesday, as we see good value in the Pirates vs. Rangers matchup in Arlington.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, April 22nd – 8:05pm ET
We see this as a matchup of two pitchers with mad potential going forward. Therefore, we are backing the Under when Braxton Ashcraft and the Pirates visit Jack Leiter and the Rangers in Arlington, TX.
Ashcraft Starting to Fulfill Vast Potential
Before getting into the nuts and bolts of this matchup, consider that Globe Life Field in Arlington has quietly become one of the most Under-friendly ballparks in baseball. The Under was 51-29-1 here last season, and it is 6-0-1 so far in 2026.
Back to this game, the Pirates are high on Ashcroft, and it is very easy to see why. He broke into the majors last season splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen with eight of his 26 appearances being starts, and he finished with a very nice 2.71 ERA and 3.54 xFIP over 69.2 innings. He had a nice K-Rate of 9.17/9, although he did struggle with command with the walk rate at 3.10/9.
Fast forward to this season and while Braxton is only 1-1 through four starts, he is sporting an excellent 2.38 ERA and 2.97 xFIP, with the xFIP ranking 13th in baseball among pitchers with at least 20 innings. He has raised the K-Rate to an excellent 10.72/9 while improving the walks to 2.78/9. Yes, he was charged with five runs allowed last time out, but only two of the runs were earned, maintaining his streak of allowing two earned runs or less in all four starts.
Ashcraft has raised the usage of his cutter to 29.6% this year, making it his second most frequently thrown pitch behind his 96.4 MPH fastball at 31.4%. That has proven to be an excellent choice and could be a key to a breakout season, as he has one of the best cutters in the league per Stuff+ with a rating of 124!
Moreover, once he exits, the Pittsburgh bullpen has been solid ranking eighth in the majors with a 3.55 ERA.
Leiter has Nice Stuff
Leiter is also 1-1 through four starts, but with a deceiving 4.87 ERA. That figure is skewed by one bad start against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, which is probably forgivable, where he allowed five earned runs in 3.2 innings. That has a major effect on the ERA this early in the season, and his xFIP is over a full run better at 3.67.
Jack has always had nice stuff, and that is the case again this year with four pitches out of his vast 6-pitch arsenal rated over 100 on Stuff+, naturally led by his fastball at 109. That has helped lead to outstanding K-Rate of 10.62/9. The one thing that has held Leiter back throughout his career is control, and that has again been an issue this year with the walk rate at an ugly 3.98/9.
Walks aside, Jack has still been unlucky with a BABIP allowed .340, and his career high 14.1% swinging strike rate fueling all the strikeouts help alleviate the extra traffic created by the walks. So, once the BABIP normalizes, the ERA should converge toward the much better xFIP.
And the Texas bullpen had been stellar, ranking second in the league with a 2.81 ERA.
In the end, what we have here is two starting pitchers with great potential and two good bullpens pitching in an Under-friendly stadium. All of that has us betting on the Under on Wednesday.
THE PICK
Under 8 -104 at Heritage
