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MLB Pick for Tuesday: Who to Bet in Nationals vs. Giants Late Game Tonight?
We are now on a 6-1 run with our MLB write-ups after another winner on Friday that got us over .500 at 13-12, and we now at +24.97 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Tuesday with a late-night play on Nationals vs. Giants.
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, June 9th – 9:45pm ET
The Nationals and the Giants continue their series in San Franciso Tuesday night in a game available on ESPN Unlimited.
The Nationals pulled the upset with a ninth inning rally in the series opener last night, but they are not decided underdogs this time around with Andrew Alvarez taking on Adrian Houser of the Giants. We see this as a bigger starting pitching mismatch as these short odds indicate, so we are supporting Washington with Alvarez on the road.
Alvarez May Stick in Rotation
The southpaw Alvarez may have been the best reliever in the Washington bullpen to start the year, but the Nationals gave him his first start last Wednesday and he performed well. He allowed just one run and four hits with five strikeouts while getting stretched out to 4.2 innings, so he should be able to take on a normal starter’s load tonight.
Andrew now has a 3.54 ERA over 20.1 total innings for the season, with an eye-popping 2.68 xFIP thanks to a very good K/BB ratio of 9.74/2.66 per nine innings. And remember this is after posting a 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings in his first taste of the Major Leagues last year. Moreover, he combines that high strikeout rate with a high 53.7% groundball rate, which we always like to see.
Granted he will not blow anyone away with his 92.7 MPH fastball, but he has actually benefited from that being not noticeably faster than his 92.3 MPH sinker, creating nice deception. Besides leading to the high groundball rate, that has also led to a nice 12.4% swinging strike rate, especially high given the modest velocity. That has us believing that his strikeout rate is sustainable.
Yes, Alvarez’s Stuff+ is a bit below average at 97, but that is acceptable given how the similar speeds of the fastball and sinker make each of them play better, and he does have a 101 Location+ and 103 Pitching +.
“Fake” Improvement for Houser
As for Houser, we were a bit high on him entering the season, but he has been a major disappointment, going 2-5 with a lofty 5.49 ERA and 4.86 xFIP over 12 starts covering 60.2 innings. He has a hideous K/BB ratio of 5.96/3.56 per nine innings and a high hard contact rate of 33.6% over a lot of volume, giving his awful 7.3% swinging strike rate.
That has led to a home run rate allowed of 1.48/9 that is well above the league average of 1.11/9, and that is despite pitching his home games in a decidedly pitchers’ ballpark!
Now, some may cite Adrian’s improved 3.86 ERA since May 1st, but we feel that improvement is “fake” as his peripherals simply do not support it. His K/BB ratio is still terrible over this time, at 7.12/4.15 per nine innings, while his hard contact rate is basically the same at 33.7% and his swinging strike rate is lower at 6.3%! Perhaps most damning is Houser’s Stuff+ of 86 since May 1st is lower than his already low Stuff+ for the season of 89.
Putting the starting pitchers aside, these teams are relatively equal in batting splits and bullpens. The Nationals have a wRC+ of 102 against righties while the Giants are at 100 against lefties, while the bullpens rank a respectively bad 27th and 28th in xFIP.
So, this play comes down to which starter is in the better position to leave his team in a good position before the shaky bullpens are called on, and we give Alvarez the huge edge there despite being more inexperienced. That has us batting on the Nationals at close to Pick’em odds.
THE PICK
Nationals +101 at Bookmaker
We are now on a 6-1 run with our MLB write-ups after another winner on Friday that got us over .500 at 13-12, and we now at +24.97 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Tuesday with a late-night play on Nationals vs. Giants.
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, June 9th – 9:45pm ET
The Nationals and the Giants continue their series in San Franciso Tuesday night in a game available on ESPN Unlimited.
The Nationals pulled the upset with a ninth inning rally in the series opener last night, but they are not decided underdogs this time around with Andrew Alvarez taking on Adrian Houser of the Giants. We see this as a bigger starting pitching mismatch as these short odds indicate, so we are supporting Washington with Alvarez on the road.
Alvarez May Stick in Rotation
The southpaw Alvarez may have been the best reliever in the Washington bullpen to start the year, but the Nationals gave him his first start last Wednesday and he performed well. He allowed just one run and four hits with five strikeouts while getting stretched out to 4.2 innings, so he should be able to take on a normal starter’s load tonight.
Andrew now has a 3.54 ERA over 20.1 total innings for the season, with an eye-popping 2.68 xFIP thanks to a very good K/BB ratio of 9.74/2.66 per nine innings. And remember this is after posting a 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings in his first taste of the Major Leagues last year. Moreover, he combines that high strikeout rate with a high 53.7% groundball rate, which we always like to see.
Granted he will not blow anyone away with his 92.7 MPH fastball, but he has actually benefited from that being not noticeably faster than his 92.3 MPH sinker, creating nice deception. Besides leading to the high groundball rate, that has also led to a nice 12.4% swinging strike rate, especially high given the modest velocity. That has us believing that his strikeout rate is sustainable.
Yes, Alvarez’s Stuff+ is a bit below average at 97, but that is acceptable given how the similar speeds of the fastball and sinker make each of them play better, and he does have a 101 Location+ and 103 Pitching +.
“Fake” Improvement for Houser
As for Houser, we were a bit high on him entering the season, but he has been a major disappointment, going 2-5 with a lofty 5.49 ERA and 4.86 xFIP over 12 starts covering 60.2 innings. He has a hideous K/BB ratio of 5.96/3.56 per nine innings and a high hard contact rate of 33.6% over a lot of volume, giving his awful 7.3% swinging strike rate.
That has led to a home run rate allowed of 1.48/9 that is well above the league average of 1.11/9, and that is despite pitching his home games in a decidedly pitchers’ ballpark!
Now, some may cite Adrian’s improved 3.86 ERA since May 1st, but we feel that improvement is “fake” as his peripherals simply do not support it. His K/BB ratio is still terrible over this time, at 7.12/4.15 per nine innings, while his hard contact rate is basically the same at 33.7% and his swinging strike rate is lower at 6.3%! Perhaps most damning is Houser’s Stuff+ of 86 since May 1st is lower than his already low Stuff+ for the season of 89.
Putting the starting pitchers aside, these teams are relatively equal in batting splits and bullpens. The Nationals have a wRC+ of 102 against righties while the Giants are at 100 against lefties, while the bullpens rank a respectively bad 27th and 28th in xFIP.
So, this play comes down to which starter is in the better position to leave his team in a good position before the shaky bullpens are called on, and we give Alvarez the huge edge there despite being more inexperienced. That has us batting on the Nationals at close to Pick’em odds.
THE PICK
Nationals +101 at Bookmaker
