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MLB Pick for Tuesday: Will Hot Texas Pitching Continue in St. Louis?
We got to .500 with our fourth straight win with our MLB write-ups to get to 11-11 on Friday, and we are +22.71 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Tuesday with a play on the Rangers vs. Rangers matchup in St. Louis.
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tuesday, June 2nd – 7:45pm ET
The Rangers took the opening game of this series vs. the Cardinals in a pitchers’ duel 2-1 behind Jacob deGrom for their third straight victory. That leaves them at 29-31 but only 2.5 games behind Seattle in the AL West.
They look to keep things going on Tuesday with Nathan Eovaldi taking on Dustin May at Busch Stadium, and like Monday, we expect both pitchers to have success. So, we are playing the Under in this spot.
Unlucky Record for Eovaldi
Eovaldi deserves better than his 5-6 record as he enters this contest with a 3.93 ERA and a more impressive 3.37 xFIP through 11 starts, covering 68.2 innings. This is coming off what would have been a career year last season had it not been cut short by injury, as he finished 11-3 with an amazing 1.73 ERA over 22 starts and 130 innings.
Now 36-years-old, Nathan is not really showing signs of slowing down despite the W/L record, as evidenced by his 94.6 MPH fastball being up from 94.1 MPH last year. But that is only his third most frequent pitch behind his splitter and cutter, and that mix has led to one of our favorite combinations in a good strikeout rate (8.78/9) and groundball rate (50.3%), both of which line up with last season.
There is also potential for a bigger spike in his strikeouts with his swinging strike rate at a career high 15.1%, which is the fifth best in baseball this season among starting pitchers! So, we see no decline from the pitcher Eovaldi was last year, and we think his record will soon start to reflect that.
May is Better Than Frontline Stats
Nathan is not the only unlucky pitcher here as the same can be said for May, who stands at only 3-6 pitching for a Cardinals team that is surprisingly in second place in the NL Central at 31-27, with a 4.57 ERA and 4.08 xFIP. But he too has peripherals that belie his frontline stats, and he has literally been unlucky as in faring poorly in the Luck Stats, with a .322 BABIP allowed and 64.9% strand rate.
Dustin has seen a noticeable spike in his velocity this season to 96.9 MPH from 95.4 MPH last year, and he has four pitches rated over 100 on Stuff+, leading to very solid +Stats across the board. To wit, he has an overall Stuff+ of 103, Location+ of 100 and Pitching+ of 103, which also does not jive with his ERA.
Moreover, May’s last start in Milwaukee last Wednesday was like a microcosm of his season, as he took the loss despite allowing just one earned run and two hits in seven innings with nine strikeouts and not a single walk.
We see this as a matchup of two pitchers will looming positive regression, which has us betting on the Under in St. Louis on Tuesday.
THE PICK
Under 7 -105 at Bet105
We got to .500 with our fourth straight win with our MLB write-ups to get to 11-11 on Friday, and we are +22.71 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Tuesday with a play on the Rangers vs. Rangers matchup in St. Louis.
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tuesday, June 2nd – 7:45pm ET
The Rangers took the opening game of this series vs. the Cardinals in a pitchers’ duel 2-1 behind Jacob deGrom for their third straight victory. That leaves them at 29-31 but only 2.5 games behind Seattle in the AL West.
They look to keep things going on Tuesday with Nathan Eovaldi taking on Dustin May at Busch Stadium, and like Monday, we expect both pitchers to have success. So, we are playing the Under in this spot.
Unlucky Record for Eovaldi
Eovaldi deserves better than his 5-6 record as he enters this contest with a 3.93 ERA and a more impressive 3.37 xFIP through 11 starts, covering 68.2 innings. This is coming off what would have been a career year last season had it not been cut short by injury, as he finished 11-3 with an amazing 1.73 ERA over 22 starts and 130 innings.
Now 36-years-old, Nathan is not really showing signs of slowing down despite the W/L record, as evidenced by his 94.6 MPH fastball being up from 94.1 MPH last year. But that is only his third most frequent pitch behind his splitter and cutter, and that mix has led to one of our favorite combinations in a good strikeout rate (8.78/9) and groundball rate (50.3%), both of which line up with last season.
There is also potential for a bigger spike in his strikeouts with his swinging strike rate at a career high 15.1%, which is the fifth best in baseball this season among starting pitchers! So, we see no decline from the pitcher Eovaldi was last year, and we think his record will soon start to reflect that.
May is Better Than Frontline Stats
Nathan is not the only unlucky pitcher here as the same can be said for May, who stands at only 3-6 pitching for a Cardinals team that is surprisingly in second place in the NL Central at 31-27, with a 4.57 ERA and 4.08 xFIP. But he too has peripherals that belie his frontline stats, and he has literally been unlucky as in faring poorly in the Luck Stats, with a .322 BABIP allowed and 64.9% strand rate.
Dustin has seen a noticeable spike in his velocity this season to 96.9 MPH from 95.4 MPH last year, and he has four pitches rated over 100 on Stuff+, leading to very solid +Stats across the board. To wit, he has an overall Stuff+ of 103, Location+ of 100 and Pitching+ of 103, which also does not jive with his ERA.
Moreover, May’s last start in Milwaukee last Wednesday was like a microcosm of his season, as he took the loss despite allowing just one earned run and two hits in seven innings with nine strikeouts and not a single walk.
We see this as a matchup of two pitchers will looming positive regression, which has us betting on the Under in St. Louis on Tuesday.
THE PICK
Under 7 -105 at Bet105
