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MLB Pick for Tuesday: Betting Total Tallies in Texas Tonight
We fell to 15-13 with our MLB write-ups with our loser Friday, but those are still on an 8-2 run, and we are up to +37.03 overall in our MLB Picks thread! We now head out to Arlington, TX on Tuesday with a selection in the Twins vs. Ranger matchup.
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, June 16th – 8:05pm ET
The Twins and Rangers continue their series in Texas on Tuesday after Minnesota took the series opener 4-2 last night, scoring three runs in the first inning and never looking back.
Zebby Matthews takes the mound for the Twins, and he will be opposed by Kumar Rocker for the Rangers. Both pitchers have flashed sone good form this season, and when you add in playing in a very pronounced pitchers’ park, we are supporting the Under in this spot
Nice Matchup for Zebby
As we almost always point out for games played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, this has become one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. The stadium yielded the best Under record in the league last year at 51-29-1, with that mark again leading the way this season at 21-10-1. For validation, Globe Life ranks fourth this year in run-suppression per Baseball Savant.
Now, Matthews does not have the prettiest frontline stats, as he comes in with a 2-4 record and an ugly 5.20 ERA. His xFIP is a bit better, though it is still not that great at 4.47. Keep in mind though these numbers are over only six starts covering 36.1 innings, and he has really had only two bad outings that are skewing his numbers over the limited sampling.
Yes, Zebby was roughed up for seven runs over six innings last time out, marking the second time he has allowed exactly seven runs. But his other four starts were all Quality Starts including allowing two runs of less in three of them, and he has now pitched at least six innings in five of his six outings.
He has a 6-pitch repertoire while throwing four of those pitches at least 13.8% of the time, as well as his cutter usage almost in double digits at 9.6%. He is averaging 95.1 MPH on his fastball while his second most frequent pitch, the slider, is rated 102 on Stuff+.
And he could not ask for an easier matchup, as the Rangers rank dead last against right-handers at home in both wRC+ (81) and OPS (.640).
Kumar Deserves Better
Rocker is another pitcher that has performed better than his losing record of 2-5, as that mark comes with a 3.56 ERA over 13 appearances (12 starts) covering 65.2 innings. And he has been quite consistent while allowing three runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts overall and in seven of his eight starts here at home, where the ERA sits at 3.02! So. his record can be attributed to a lack of run-support, which we sadly see happening again tonight, suiting our Under just fine.
Now, we get that the xFIP sits at a higher 4.42, but Kumar is not a huge strikeout guy at 7.13/9, as his forte is generating groundballs. And he has done that well with his two most frequent pitches. the sinker and slider, helping lead to a solid 48.2% groundball rate. He is also facing a Minnesota offense that has been slightly below average against righties on the road at 97, a figure that should get more suppressed in this stadium.
Moreover, once Rocker exits, the Texas bullpen is fourth in the majors in ERA at 3.33.
So, this is a matchup of two pitchers that have pitched better than their records and two offenses that have not been great against righties, with Texas downright awful against them here at home. Bet on another Under at Globe Life Park.
THE PICK
Under 8 +100 at Bet105
We fell to 15-13 with our MLB write-ups with our loser Friday, but those are still on an 8-2 run, and we are up to +37.03 overall in our MLB Picks thread! We now head out to Arlington, TX on Tuesday with a selection in the Twins vs. Ranger matchup.
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, June 16th – 8:05pm ET
The Twins and Rangers continue their series in Texas on Tuesday after Minnesota took the series opener 4-2 last night, scoring three runs in the first inning and never looking back.
Zebby Matthews takes the mound for the Twins, and he will be opposed by Kumar Rocker for the Rangers. Both pitchers have flashed sone good form this season, and when you add in playing in a very pronounced pitchers’ park, we are supporting the Under in this spot
Nice Matchup for Zebby
As we almost always point out for games played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, this has become one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. The stadium yielded the best Under record in the league last year at 51-29-1, with that mark again leading the way this season at 21-10-1. For validation, Globe Life ranks fourth this year in run-suppression per Baseball Savant.
Now, Matthews does not have the prettiest frontline stats, as he comes in with a 2-4 record and an ugly 5.20 ERA. His xFIP is a bit better, though it is still not that great at 4.47. Keep in mind though these numbers are over only six starts covering 36.1 innings, and he has really had only two bad outings that are skewing his numbers over the limited sampling.
Yes, Zebby was roughed up for seven runs over six innings last time out, marking the second time he has allowed exactly seven runs. But his other four starts were all Quality Starts including allowing two runs of less in three of them, and he has now pitched at least six innings in five of his six outings.
He has a 6-pitch repertoire while throwing four of those pitches at least 13.8% of the time, as well as his cutter usage almost in double digits at 9.6%. He is averaging 95.1 MPH on his fastball while his second most frequent pitch, the slider, is rated 102 on Stuff+.
And he could not ask for an easier matchup, as the Rangers rank dead last against right-handers at home in both wRC+ (81) and OPS (.640).
Kumar Deserves Better
Rocker is another pitcher that has performed better than his losing record of 2-5, as that mark comes with a 3.56 ERA over 13 appearances (12 starts) covering 65.2 innings. And he has been quite consistent while allowing three runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts overall and in seven of his eight starts here at home, where the ERA sits at 3.02! So. his record can be attributed to a lack of run-support, which we sadly see happening again tonight, suiting our Under just fine.
Now, we get that the xFIP sits at a higher 4.42, but Kumar is not a huge strikeout guy at 7.13/9, as his forte is generating groundballs. And he has done that well with his two most frequent pitches. the sinker and slider, helping lead to a solid 48.2% groundball rate. He is also facing a Minnesota offense that has been slightly below average against righties on the road at 97, a figure that should get more suppressed in this stadium.
Moreover, once Rocker exits, the Texas bullpen is fourth in the majors in ERA at 3.33.
So, this is a matchup of two pitchers that have pitched better than their records and two offenses that have not been great against righties, with Texas downright awful against them here at home. Bet on another Under at Globe Life Park.
THE PICK
Under 8 +100 at Bet105
