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MLB Pick for Tuesday: Snakes to Make Pirates Walk Plank in Arizona
We went to 4-6 with our MLB write-ups with another winner on Friday, as that record is converging toward our +12.85 overall mark in our MLB Picks thread. We are staying out west Tuesday with a play in the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, May 5th – 9:40pm ET
We feel that we have found an undervalued favorite in the desert on Tuesday. We are backing Eduardo Rodriguez and the Diamondbacks when they host Bubba Chandler and the Pirates in Arizona.
Too Many Walks and Dingers Allowed
We have not been as high on Chandler as the Pittsburgh organization seems to be since his call-up last season, and the 23-year-old has not done anything to change our minds yet this season. He comes in with a 1-3 record and a weak 4.97 ERA, with the xFIP a bit worse at 5.26 over 29 innings.
Bubba has just one Quality Start in his six outings, running up his pitch counts due to poor command. Yes, he has a nice strikeout rate of 8.38/9, but that gets offset by his atrocious walk rate of 6.21/9. He also combines a distressingly high hard contact rate of 39.0% with a low groundball rate of 34.6%, and as you might expect with so much hard air contact, home runs have been an issue with that rate at 1.55/9 allowed.
Furthermore, that gets amplified with the Chase Field roof scheduled to be open tonight, as the ball travels much better there in the open desert air than when the roof is closed.
Nice Matchup for Southpaw Rodriguez
Now, Rodriguez is by no means an All-Star, but we do think he is the better pitcher in this game and that he has the easier matchup. He comes in at 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA, although we readily admit he is not as good as that ERA with the xFIP comparable to Chandler at 4.83. Regardless, he has raised his groundball rate considerably this season to 43.3% from 37.2% last year, which is a nice trait to have in this park with the roof open to mitigate any damage.
And then there is this matchup itself against a Pirates’ offense that has struggled against southpaws, especially away from home. Pittsburgh has a below average wRC+ of 95 against left-handers overall while ranking 14th in OPS against them at .699. However, they are ranked dead last in the majors against lefties on the road in both wRC+ at a futile 50 and OPS at a lightweight .533!
While we do think Rodriguez is the better starter here regardless, we think the vast differences in these offenses against the handedness of tonight’s opponents is the biggest factor here. We are betting on the Diamondbacks as reasonable home favorites in Phoenix.
THE PICK
Diamondbacks -121 at Bet105
We went to 4-6 with our MLB write-ups with another winner on Friday, as that record is converging toward our +12.85 overall mark in our MLB Picks thread. We are staying out west Tuesday with a play in the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, May 5th – 9:40pm ET
We feel that we have found an undervalued favorite in the desert on Tuesday. We are backing Eduardo Rodriguez and the Diamondbacks when they host Bubba Chandler and the Pirates in Arizona.
Too Many Walks and Dingers Allowed
We have not been as high on Chandler as the Pittsburgh organization seems to be since his call-up last season, and the 23-year-old has not done anything to change our minds yet this season. He comes in with a 1-3 record and a weak 4.97 ERA, with the xFIP a bit worse at 5.26 over 29 innings.
Bubba has just one Quality Start in his six outings, running up his pitch counts due to poor command. Yes, he has a nice strikeout rate of 8.38/9, but that gets offset by his atrocious walk rate of 6.21/9. He also combines a distressingly high hard contact rate of 39.0% with a low groundball rate of 34.6%, and as you might expect with so much hard air contact, home runs have been an issue with that rate at 1.55/9 allowed.
Furthermore, that gets amplified with the Chase Field roof scheduled to be open tonight, as the ball travels much better there in the open desert air than when the roof is closed.
Nice Matchup for Southpaw Rodriguez
Now, Rodriguez is by no means an All-Star, but we do think he is the better pitcher in this game and that he has the easier matchup. He comes in at 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA, although we readily admit he is not as good as that ERA with the xFIP comparable to Chandler at 4.83. Regardless, he has raised his groundball rate considerably this season to 43.3% from 37.2% last year, which is a nice trait to have in this park with the roof open to mitigate any damage.
And then there is this matchup itself against a Pirates’ offense that has struggled against southpaws, especially away from home. Pittsburgh has a below average wRC+ of 95 against left-handers overall while ranking 14th in OPS against them at .699. However, they are ranked dead last in the majors against lefties on the road in both wRC+ at a futile 50 and OPS at a lightweight .533!
While we do think Rodriguez is the better starter here regardless, we think the vast differences in these offenses against the handedness of tonight’s opponents is the biggest factor here. We are betting on the Diamondbacks as reasonable home favorites in Phoenix.
THE PICK
Diamondbacks -121 at Bet105
