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MLB Pick for Tuesday: Will Rays Shine or Will Orioles Fly in Camden Yards?
We improved to 8-11 with our MLB write-ups with an easy win Friday, and we are up to +23.34 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We hope to continue convergence with our write-ups toward the overall record on Tuesday with a play in the Rays vs. Orioles matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, May 26th – 6:35pm ET
The Orioles took the opening game of this 3-game series vs. the Rays on a walk-off homer in the 13th inning by Colton Cowser yesterday, and the teams are at it again in the middle game on Tuesday.
Shane Baz takes the mound at home for Baltimore while taking on Griffin Jax for Tampa Bay. We are looking for Baz to continue to take advantage of his familiarity with the Rays’ lineup and are backing the Orioles in Camden Yards.
Baz Knows Rays Well
Baz is making his second consecutive start against the Rays after facing them in Tampa last Wednesday. And this is a lineup he is quite familiar with after spending his first four Major League seasons with the Rays.
Granted, Shane has been a disappointment after being a first-round draft pick, and his first year in Baltimore has been a rough one. He comes in at 1-5 with a weak 4.87 ERA, and his xFIP is only minimally better at 4.48. However, he does come off two straight Quality Starts with his last one against these Rays being his best in an Orioles uniform.
He put his familiarity with the Rays lineup to good use, allowing just one run and two hits with six strikeouts in six innings. And it is not as if he does not have any redeeming qualities to suggest he can continue his recent improvement going forward when facing other teams besides this opponent he knows so well.
While his overall Stuff+ is currently a tick below average at 99, he does have a 96.3 MPH fastball rated 105, and there is good reason to believe the overall Stuff+ will rise a bit as he has increased the use of his unique knuckle-curve as the season has gone on. That happens to be his second highest rated pitch on Stuff+ at 104 and it has now risen to easily his second most frequent pitch with a usage of 32.9%.
Poor Command for Jax
Jax has worked primarily as a reliever over the last four seasons, and he also began this season in the bullpen. The now 31-year-old is making his sixth start to go along with 11 relief appearances, and although he is only 1-2, he does have a good 3.54 ERA. However, we feel that ERA is deceptive for a guy that is seeing his command ratio plummet at an advancing age.
Griffin always had very good strikeout rates the last four years out of the pen, but that K-Rate is down immensely this year at 7.21/9, while his walk rate is simultaneously at a career high, at a hideous 4.82/9! That is accompanied by a weak contact ratio that has also taken a major hit, with his soft contact rate down considerably to 12.8% from 18.0% out of the bullpen last year and his hard contact rate up to 35.9% from 30.4%.
That high hard contact rate has led to a home run rate allowed of 1.29/9, the first time that rate has been over 1.00 since his rookie year of 2021.
To summarize, we look for Baz to further build on his first start against his former teammates last week, while we do not think Jax is suited to be a fulltime starter. We are betting on the Orioles at home.
THE PICK
Orioles +101 at Bet105
We improved to 8-11 with our MLB write-ups with an easy win Friday, and we are up to +23.34 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We hope to continue convergence with our write-ups toward the overall record on Tuesday with a play in the Rays vs. Orioles matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, May 26th – 6:35pm ET
The Orioles took the opening game of this 3-game series vs. the Rays on a walk-off homer in the 13th inning by Colton Cowser yesterday, and the teams are at it again in the middle game on Tuesday.
Shane Baz takes the mound at home for Baltimore while taking on Griffin Jax for Tampa Bay. We are looking for Baz to continue to take advantage of his familiarity with the Rays’ lineup and are backing the Orioles in Camden Yards.
Baz Knows Rays Well
Baz is making his second consecutive start against the Rays after facing them in Tampa last Wednesday. And this is a lineup he is quite familiar with after spending his first four Major League seasons with the Rays.
Granted, Shane has been a disappointment after being a first-round draft pick, and his first year in Baltimore has been a rough one. He comes in at 1-5 with a weak 4.87 ERA, and his xFIP is only minimally better at 4.48. However, he does come off two straight Quality Starts with his last one against these Rays being his best in an Orioles uniform.
He put his familiarity with the Rays lineup to good use, allowing just one run and two hits with six strikeouts in six innings. And it is not as if he does not have any redeeming qualities to suggest he can continue his recent improvement going forward when facing other teams besides this opponent he knows so well.
While his overall Stuff+ is currently a tick below average at 99, he does have a 96.3 MPH fastball rated 105, and there is good reason to believe the overall Stuff+ will rise a bit as he has increased the use of his unique knuckle-curve as the season has gone on. That happens to be his second highest rated pitch on Stuff+ at 104 and it has now risen to easily his second most frequent pitch with a usage of 32.9%.
Poor Command for Jax
Jax has worked primarily as a reliever over the last four seasons, and he also began this season in the bullpen. The now 31-year-old is making his sixth start to go along with 11 relief appearances, and although he is only 1-2, he does have a good 3.54 ERA. However, we feel that ERA is deceptive for a guy that is seeing his command ratio plummet at an advancing age.
Griffin always had very good strikeout rates the last four years out of the pen, but that K-Rate is down immensely this year at 7.21/9, while his walk rate is simultaneously at a career high, at a hideous 4.82/9! That is accompanied by a weak contact ratio that has also taken a major hit, with his soft contact rate down considerably to 12.8% from 18.0% out of the bullpen last year and his hard contact rate up to 35.9% from 30.4%.
That high hard contact rate has led to a home run rate allowed of 1.29/9, the first time that rate has been over 1.00 since his rookie year of 2021.
To summarize, we look for Baz to further build on his first start against his former teammates last week, while we do not think Jax is suited to be a fulltime starter. We are betting on the Orioles at home.
THE PICK
Orioles +101 at Bet105
