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MLB Pick for Tuesday: Angels to Rise Above Athletics in Anaheim
We improved to 7-9 with our MLB write-ups with an easy win Friday, and we are +23.35 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Tuesday with a late west coast selection in the Athletics vs. Angels matchup.
The Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tuesday, May 19th – 9:38pm ET
We feel that we have found an undervalued favorite on the Tuesday MLB card, and are thus backing Reid Detmers and the Angels hosting fellow southpaw Jacob Lopez and the Athletics in Anaheim.
A’s Struggling vs. Lefties
Detmers enters this contest with a 1-4 record and a 4.38 ERA, but he has pitched better than those numbers would indicate. His xFIP is a bit better at 3.78 and he has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his nine starts including the last four in a row. He has been a bit unlucky with a .304 BABIP allowed and even more unlucky with only a 66.2% strand rate.
That strand rate is especially unlucky for a good strikeout pitcher, and Reid has been that with the K-Rate at 9.67/9. He will not blow out many batters with his fastball at 93.9 MPH, but he keeps them off balance with a vast 5-pitch arsenal, four of which he has thrown over 10% of the time. That has led to a good soft/hard contact ratio of 16.7% / 26.8% and a swinging strike rate of 11.3%, plus rather remarkably, all five of his pitches are rated 100 or better on Stuff+!
He is also facing an Athletics lineup that has struggled vs. left-handed pitchers this season, ranking 21st against them in wRC+ overall at 87 (13% below average) despite playing in a hitter-friendly park in Sacramento. And as you might expect that figure plummets further on the road like they are here, to a puny 63.
Almost as Many Walks as Strikeouts
As for Lopez, we were rather high on him entering this year with this being his fourth Major League season and with his third one last year being his best yet. He was especially good after the All-Star break in 2025, posting a 3.89 ERA and a nicely aligning 3.85 over the second half of the season.
However, it has been a struggle so far in 2026 despite an undeserved winning record of 3-2, as it has come with a 5.80 ERA and a disgusting 6.01 xFIP that is the very worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. And it is easy to see why the xFIP is so awful considering he has almost as many walks as strikeouts, with his K/BB ratio at a distressing 6.69/6,02 per nine innings.
Moreover, when batters have made contact, it has usually been good contact with a very high home run rate allowed of 2.23/9 and a low 32.8% groundball rate. Yes, part of that is pitching in Sutter Health Park, but that loses relevance when there is not much separation in his home run rate allowed at home (2.29) vs. away (2.18). He is also facing an Angels lineup a tick above average in wRC+ against southpaws at 101, compared to only 92 against righties.
In the end, W/L records aside, we rate Detmers as the considerably better pitcher right now, and the Halos also have the edge in batting split. Thus, we are betting on the Angels as reasonable home chalk in this spot.
THE PICK
Angels -125 at Heritage
We improved to 7-9 with our MLB write-ups with an easy win Friday, and we are +23.35 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Tuesday with a late west coast selection in the Athletics vs. Angels matchup.
The Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tuesday, May 19th – 9:38pm ET
We feel that we have found an undervalued favorite on the Tuesday MLB card, and are thus backing Reid Detmers and the Angels hosting fellow southpaw Jacob Lopez and the Athletics in Anaheim.
A’s Struggling vs. Lefties
Detmers enters this contest with a 1-4 record and a 4.38 ERA, but he has pitched better than those numbers would indicate. His xFIP is a bit better at 3.78 and he has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his nine starts including the last four in a row. He has been a bit unlucky with a .304 BABIP allowed and even more unlucky with only a 66.2% strand rate.
That strand rate is especially unlucky for a good strikeout pitcher, and Reid has been that with the K-Rate at 9.67/9. He will not blow out many batters with his fastball at 93.9 MPH, but he keeps them off balance with a vast 5-pitch arsenal, four of which he has thrown over 10% of the time. That has led to a good soft/hard contact ratio of 16.7% / 26.8% and a swinging strike rate of 11.3%, plus rather remarkably, all five of his pitches are rated 100 or better on Stuff+!
He is also facing an Athletics lineup that has struggled vs. left-handed pitchers this season, ranking 21st against them in wRC+ overall at 87 (13% below average) despite playing in a hitter-friendly park in Sacramento. And as you might expect that figure plummets further on the road like they are here, to a puny 63.
Almost as Many Walks as Strikeouts
As for Lopez, we were rather high on him entering this year with this being his fourth Major League season and with his third one last year being his best yet. He was especially good after the All-Star break in 2025, posting a 3.89 ERA and a nicely aligning 3.85 over the second half of the season.
However, it has been a struggle so far in 2026 despite an undeserved winning record of 3-2, as it has come with a 5.80 ERA and a disgusting 6.01 xFIP that is the very worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. And it is easy to see why the xFIP is so awful considering he has almost as many walks as strikeouts, with his K/BB ratio at a distressing 6.69/6,02 per nine innings.
Moreover, when batters have made contact, it has usually been good contact with a very high home run rate allowed of 2.23/9 and a low 32.8% groundball rate. Yes, part of that is pitching in Sutter Health Park, but that loses relevance when there is not much separation in his home run rate allowed at home (2.29) vs. away (2.18). He is also facing an Angels lineup a tick above average in wRC+ against southpaws at 101, compared to only 92 against righties.
In the end, W/L records aside, we rate Detmers as the considerably better pitcher right now, and the Halos also have the edge in batting split. Thus, we are betting on the Angels as reasonable home chalk in this spot.
THE PICK
Angels -125 at Heritage
