LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 13,842
MLB Pick for Tuesday: Royals to be Crowned in Detroit with Ragans
Our first MLB write-up of 2026 was a winner Friday with the Athletics at +133 odds. We now return on Tuesday with a selection in a potentially nice pitching matchup when the Royals face the Tigers in Comerica Park.
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, April 14th – 6:40pm ET
While most bettors consider this to be a nice pitching matchup despite the current ERAs of the starting pitchers, we feel that we are getting the better starter at an underdog price on Tuesday. We are backing Cole Ragans and the Royals as small dogs when they visit Framber Valdez and the Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit.
Ragans Cleared After Thumb Injury
Before diving into this matchup, it is important to note that Ragans looked fine during his bullpen session after leaving his last start in the first inning due to a thumb contusion on his left (throwing) hand. We doubt the Royals would allow their ace to pitch if he had any lingering effects after taking a comebacker to the thumb, so we are proceeding under the assumption that he is good to go.
Cole only made 13 starts last season due to a shoulder injury, but he looked like his usual self after returning in September. His great 2.45 xFIP over 61.2 innings overall belied his 4.67 ERA, primarily fueled by his sensational strikeout rate of 14.50 per nine innings. So, assuming he is truly healthy, we are not concerned that he is 0-3 with a fat 5.91 ERA so far this season, as he has only pitched 10.2 innings after the early departure last time out.
Moreover, he still has a solid 3.71 xFIP with an obscene .409 xFIP skewing the ERA, and he is still getting strikeouts at a nice clip of 12.66/9. In fact, both of his outs last time out came on strikeouts before his day came to a premature end.
Valdez Issues Persisting
Now, Valdez has consistently posted xFIPs below 4.00 every year since 2020. That was even the case last season when he posted a 3.66 ERA and 3.34 xFIP despite his nondescript 13-11 record. However, he is heavily reliant on inducing groundballs, and batters seemingly figured him out during the second half of last season by reading his sinker better and not swinging at it as much.
As a result, he posted a 5.20 ERA after the All-Star break in 2025 while seeing his K-Rate drop to 7.86 per nine innings. Fast forward to this year and Framber is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA, with his groundball rate down to a career-low 53.3% and his K-Rate at a modest 6.35/9. Yes, that is still over only 17 innings, but the fact that he is continuing his regressing pattern from the second half of last year seems to us to be a legitimate concern.
And let us not forget that Valdez is now 32 years old, so it is not a given that he will rediscover his old form. We simply trust Ragans more in this matchup and have him rated as the better pitcher right now, so we are betting on the Royals at + odds in Motown.
THE PICK
Royals +108 at Heritage
Our first MLB write-up of 2026 was a winner Friday with the Athletics at +133 odds. We now return on Tuesday with a selection in a potentially nice pitching matchup when the Royals face the Tigers in Comerica Park.
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, April 14th – 6:40pm ET
While most bettors consider this to be a nice pitching matchup despite the current ERAs of the starting pitchers, we feel that we are getting the better starter at an underdog price on Tuesday. We are backing Cole Ragans and the Royals as small dogs when they visit Framber Valdez and the Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit.
Ragans Cleared After Thumb Injury
Before diving into this matchup, it is important to note that Ragans looked fine during his bullpen session after leaving his last start in the first inning due to a thumb contusion on his left (throwing) hand. We doubt the Royals would allow their ace to pitch if he had any lingering effects after taking a comebacker to the thumb, so we are proceeding under the assumption that he is good to go.
Cole only made 13 starts last season due to a shoulder injury, but he looked like his usual self after returning in September. His great 2.45 xFIP over 61.2 innings overall belied his 4.67 ERA, primarily fueled by his sensational strikeout rate of 14.50 per nine innings. So, assuming he is truly healthy, we are not concerned that he is 0-3 with a fat 5.91 ERA so far this season, as he has only pitched 10.2 innings after the early departure last time out.
Moreover, he still has a solid 3.71 xFIP with an obscene .409 xFIP skewing the ERA, and he is still getting strikeouts at a nice clip of 12.66/9. In fact, both of his outs last time out came on strikeouts before his day came to a premature end.
Valdez Issues Persisting
Now, Valdez has consistently posted xFIPs below 4.00 every year since 2020. That was even the case last season when he posted a 3.66 ERA and 3.34 xFIP despite his nondescript 13-11 record. However, he is heavily reliant on inducing groundballs, and batters seemingly figured him out during the second half of last season by reading his sinker better and not swinging at it as much.
As a result, he posted a 5.20 ERA after the All-Star break in 2025 while seeing his K-Rate drop to 7.86 per nine innings. Fast forward to this year and Framber is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA, with his groundball rate down to a career-low 53.3% and his K-Rate at a modest 6.35/9. Yes, that is still over only 17 innings, but the fact that he is continuing his regressing pattern from the second half of last year seems to us to be a legitimate concern.
And let us not forget that Valdez is now 32 years old, so it is not a given that he will rediscover his old form. We simply trust Ragans more in this matchup and have him rated as the better pitcher right now, so we are betting on the Royals at + odds in Motown.
THE PICK
Royals +108 at Heritage
