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MLB Pick for Friday: Alcantara and Ashcraft Clash at PNC
We are 15-12 and on an 8-1 run with our MLB write-ups after a winner Wednesday, and we are up to +33.06 overall in our MLB Picks thread! We head to the Steel City on Friday with a play in the Marlins vs. Pirates matchup.
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, June 12th – 6:40pm ET
The red-hot Marlins are riding a 5-game winning streak to get within one game of .500 at 34-35 as they hit the road on Friday to visit the Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
Former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara starts for Miami taking on the Pirates’ Brandon Ashcraft, who would be an ace this season on most pitching staffs that don’t include Paul Skenes. We are looking for pitching to prevail here and are supporting the Under.
Ashcraft Tied for 8th in WAR
Ashcraft was highly regarded when he came up last season, and he lived up to the hype by posting a 2.71 ERA and 3.68 xFIP. He is now flourishing in his first full season in the Major Leagues, coming in at 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA and a nicely aligning 3.20 xFIP, keyed by an outstanding K/BB ratio of 9.72/1.92 per nine innings combined with a good 45.5% groundball rate.
But to truly appreciate the year Braxton is having, consider that his 2.1 pitching WAR is tied for eighth in the majors with Chris Sale and Joe Ryan, making him one of only 11 pitchers with a WAR of 2.0 or better so far! Perhaps he would be getting more notoriety if he was not on the same staff as Skenes, as the Pirates are the only team with two pitchers on the 2.0-WAR list.
Ashcraft has a 97.0 MPH fastball, and he accompanies that with perhaps the best cutter in baseball, with that pitch rated a gaudy 130 on Stuff+. That has led to a jump in his swinging strike rate to 13.3% from 11.9% in his first taste of the majors last year. He also benefits from facing a Miani offense that has been a bit below average against right-handers, ranking 21st in wRC+ against them at 96.
Sandy Not What He Once Was
Miami’s 5-game winning streak has been keyed by pitching, as they did not allow a single run the last two games and allowed three runs or less in four of the five wins. However, that may not be a given tonight as Alcantara has become a shell of his former Cy Young self since returning after missing 2024 following Tommy John surgery.
He was terrible last year despite a deceptive 11-12 record, as it came with a 5.36 ERA. He has been slightly better so far this season at 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA, and his aligning 4.23 xFIP suggests Sandy is what he is these days, with that being a 4.20ish pitcher. Then again, that could be fine here provided the Miami bullpen gets called on as soon as Alcantara gets in trouble. That unit has keyed the team’s recent success and is now up to ninth in the majors in ERA at 3.53.
Then again, Sandy has also flashed some signs of his old self at times, such as last time out in Kansas City Sunday when he allowed just one run and five hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts against one walk!
Obviously, a repeat of that would serve us well here, but even if Alcantara is just adequate while he is in there, that combined with the hot Miami bullpen and Ashcraft’s great season is enough for us to bet on the Under here.
THE PICK
Under 8.5 -108 at Bet105
We are 15-12 and on an 8-1 run with our MLB write-ups after a winner Wednesday, and we are up to +33.06 overall in our MLB Picks thread! We head to the Steel City on Friday with a play in the Marlins vs. Pirates matchup.
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, June 12th – 6:40pm ET
The red-hot Marlins are riding a 5-game winning streak to get within one game of .500 at 34-35 as they hit the road on Friday to visit the Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
Former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara starts for Miami taking on the Pirates’ Brandon Ashcraft, who would be an ace this season on most pitching staffs that don’t include Paul Skenes. We are looking for pitching to prevail here and are supporting the Under.
Ashcraft Tied for 8th in WAR
Ashcraft was highly regarded when he came up last season, and he lived up to the hype by posting a 2.71 ERA and 3.68 xFIP. He is now flourishing in his first full season in the Major Leagues, coming in at 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA and a nicely aligning 3.20 xFIP, keyed by an outstanding K/BB ratio of 9.72/1.92 per nine innings combined with a good 45.5% groundball rate.
But to truly appreciate the year Braxton is having, consider that his 2.1 pitching WAR is tied for eighth in the majors with Chris Sale and Joe Ryan, making him one of only 11 pitchers with a WAR of 2.0 or better so far! Perhaps he would be getting more notoriety if he was not on the same staff as Skenes, as the Pirates are the only team with two pitchers on the 2.0-WAR list.
Ashcraft has a 97.0 MPH fastball, and he accompanies that with perhaps the best cutter in baseball, with that pitch rated a gaudy 130 on Stuff+. That has led to a jump in his swinging strike rate to 13.3% from 11.9% in his first taste of the majors last year. He also benefits from facing a Miani offense that has been a bit below average against right-handers, ranking 21st in wRC+ against them at 96.
Sandy Not What He Once Was
Miami’s 5-game winning streak has been keyed by pitching, as they did not allow a single run the last two games and allowed three runs or less in four of the five wins. However, that may not be a given tonight as Alcantara has become a shell of his former Cy Young self since returning after missing 2024 following Tommy John surgery.
He was terrible last year despite a deceptive 11-12 record, as it came with a 5.36 ERA. He has been slightly better so far this season at 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA, and his aligning 4.23 xFIP suggests Sandy is what he is these days, with that being a 4.20ish pitcher. Then again, that could be fine here provided the Miami bullpen gets called on as soon as Alcantara gets in trouble. That unit has keyed the team’s recent success and is now up to ninth in the majors in ERA at 3.53.
Then again, Sandy has also flashed some signs of his old self at times, such as last time out in Kansas City Sunday when he allowed just one run and five hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts against one walk!
Obviously, a repeat of that would serve us well here, but even if Alcantara is just adequate while he is in there, that combined with the hot Miami bullpen and Ashcraft’s great season is enough for us to bet on the Under here.
THE PICK
Under 8.5 -108 at Bet105
