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MLB Pick for Friday: Miz Brews Up Win Over Bronx Bombers
We fell to 5-7 with our MLB write-ups with our loss on Wednesday despite being currently +25.16 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Friday with a selection in the Yankees vs. Brewers matchup.
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, May 8th – 7:40pm ET
We see a nice opportunity on Friday to grab a pitcher that is in the Top 10 in the Major Leagues in xFIP as a home underdog while facing a pitcher with lesser metrics. Thus, we are taking Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers at underdog odds hosting Max Fried and the Yankees in Milwaukee.
Miz Proving to be Real Deal
Misiorowski has had an eventful last two starts. First, he broke the record for the fastest pitch ever thrown by a starting pitcher on three straight pitches on April 25th with the third one clocked at 102.7 MPH. Then, he was forced to leave his last start on May 1st while pitching a no-hitter with eight strikeouts through 5.1 innings after tweaking his hamstring. The good news there is he is now fine and good to go after a full week of rest.
There was a lot of controversy last season about The Miz making the All-Star team after just eight Major League starts, but there will be no dispute should he make it this year. Although his record stands at just 2-2, he owns a 2.84 ERA and ranks seventh in the majors in xFIP at a spiffy 2.62. Furthermore, he leads the league in strikeout rate at a whopping 13.97/9, as well as average fastball velocity among starters (to the surprise of nobody) at 99.4 MPH.
And while the heater gets all the acclaim, Jabob is not a one-trick pony as his next two most frequent pitches also grade out well in Stuff+, with the curveball rated 128 and the slider at 105. The end-result is an overall Stuff+ of 122 and a Pitching+ of 114. All of that has resulted in a league-leading swinging strike rate of 17.7%, a full 2% higher than Shota Imanaga in second.
Fried High ERA/xFIP Variance
Fried comes in at 4-1 and he has the better ERA here at 2.39. However, his peripherals are not as strong and we disagree with him ever being favored in this game, as our model has this matchup at Milwaukee 52% (-108). Yes, the Yankees grade out considerably better offensively, but we feel good about betting the better pitcher as an underdog at home.
This is not to say that Max is bad by any means, but there is a big disparity between his ERA and his xFIP of 3.91. His strikeout rate is at a career low of 7.35/9 and his hard contact rate of 28.4% is at its highest point since 2019. Yet, he has escaped that rate with higher volume due to fewer punch-outs with the help of a lucky .221 BABIP allowed.
And while his groundball rate is still good at 46.0%, that is still a steep decline from 52.4% last season and would be a career low if it holds. In fact, Fried never posted a groundball rate below 50% in the majors before this year, with the previous low being 51.4%.
We simply cannot pass up a chance to play on a pitcher of Misiorowski’s caliber as a home underdog. Add in Fried’s metrics not supporting his deceptive ERA and bet on the Brewers on Friday.
THE PICK
Brewers +118 at Heritage
We fell to 5-7 with our MLB write-ups with our loss on Wednesday despite being currently +25.16 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Friday with a selection in the Yankees vs. Brewers matchup.
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, May 8th – 7:40pm ET
We see a nice opportunity on Friday to grab a pitcher that is in the Top 10 in the Major Leagues in xFIP as a home underdog while facing a pitcher with lesser metrics. Thus, we are taking Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers at underdog odds hosting Max Fried and the Yankees in Milwaukee.
Miz Proving to be Real Deal
Misiorowski has had an eventful last two starts. First, he broke the record for the fastest pitch ever thrown by a starting pitcher on three straight pitches on April 25th with the third one clocked at 102.7 MPH. Then, he was forced to leave his last start on May 1st while pitching a no-hitter with eight strikeouts through 5.1 innings after tweaking his hamstring. The good news there is he is now fine and good to go after a full week of rest.
There was a lot of controversy last season about The Miz making the All-Star team after just eight Major League starts, but there will be no dispute should he make it this year. Although his record stands at just 2-2, he owns a 2.84 ERA and ranks seventh in the majors in xFIP at a spiffy 2.62. Furthermore, he leads the league in strikeout rate at a whopping 13.97/9, as well as average fastball velocity among starters (to the surprise of nobody) at 99.4 MPH.
And while the heater gets all the acclaim, Jabob is not a one-trick pony as his next two most frequent pitches also grade out well in Stuff+, with the curveball rated 128 and the slider at 105. The end-result is an overall Stuff+ of 122 and a Pitching+ of 114. All of that has resulted in a league-leading swinging strike rate of 17.7%, a full 2% higher than Shota Imanaga in second.
Fried High ERA/xFIP Variance
Fried comes in at 4-1 and he has the better ERA here at 2.39. However, his peripherals are not as strong and we disagree with him ever being favored in this game, as our model has this matchup at Milwaukee 52% (-108). Yes, the Yankees grade out considerably better offensively, but we feel good about betting the better pitcher as an underdog at home.
This is not to say that Max is bad by any means, but there is a big disparity between his ERA and his xFIP of 3.91. His strikeout rate is at a career low of 7.35/9 and his hard contact rate of 28.4% is at its highest point since 2019. Yet, he has escaped that rate with higher volume due to fewer punch-outs with the help of a lucky .221 BABIP allowed.
And while his groundball rate is still good at 46.0%, that is still a steep decline from 52.4% last season and would be a career low if it holds. In fact, Fried never posted a groundball rate below 50% in the majors before this year, with the previous low being 51.4%.
We simply cannot pass up a chance to play on a pitcher of Misiorowski’s caliber as a home underdog. Add in Fried’s metrics not supporting his deceptive ERA and bet on the Brewers on Friday.
THE PICK
Brewers +118 at Heritage
