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MLB Pick for Friday: Ginn to Grade Out with Straight A’s in New York
After finishing NCAAB on an 11-0 run including 8-0 in the NCAA Tournament with our write-ups, we now reset all records as we transition to MLB. We kick things off on Friday with a play on A’s vs. Mets from Citi Field.
The Athletics vs. New York Mets
Friday, April 10th – 7:10pm ET
We have what we feel is one of our favorite kinds of matchups on Friday with an undervalued pitcher facing an overvalued pitcher. We are backing J.T. Ginn and the Athletics as underdogs when they visit Clay Holmes and the Mets in Citi Field.
Lack of Strikeouts Hurts Holmes
The Mets transitioned Holmes into a starter last season after he recorded 30 saves as a closer for the crosstown Yankees two years ago, and the transition was mostly successful. After all, he went 12-8 with a 3.53 ERA with his arm withstanding 165.2 innings in his new role. However, his peripherals indicate that he was not as good as that ERA.
For starters, his xFIP was noticeably higher at 4.25, with the main culprit being a modest K/BB ratio of 7.01/3.59 per nine innings. Keep in mind that Clay had averaged at least one strikeout per inning in each of his previous four seasons, and also that the walk rate was a career high.
Well, he is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in the early going this year, but his peripherals have basically mirrored his numbers from last year so far, albeit through only 12.1 innings. His K-Rate stands at an even lower 6.39/9 while the walk rate is at 3.55/9. He has been lucky to pitch around traffic on the basepaths by scoring very highly in the Luck Stats, with an unsustainable .176 BABIP allowed and a 94.3% strand rate.
Better Velocity from Wind-Up for Ginn
Ginn is the opposite of Holmes in that he was better than his frontline stats last year, which had him at 4-7 with a bloated 5.08 ERA. He actually had a good 3.57 xFIP over 90.1 innings, with the ERA getting inflated by a .314 BABIP. He also had one of our favorite combinations for any pitcher, which is a good strikeout rate (9.86/9) and groundball rate (52.7%).
As if that was not encouraging enough for expected improvement in 2026, T.J. improved his velocity this year by pitching from a wind-up after throwing exclusively from the stretch last year, and he has added a fifth pitch (4-seam fastball) to an already vast arsenal. This will be his first start of the year after posting a nondescript 5.14 ERA and 4.47 xFIP in seven innings of relief, but the spike in velocity is encouraging.
He has added speed to all four of his pitches from last season, most notably with a sinker that is heavier than ever at 95.0 MPH (93.5 MPH last year). That is faster than his new 4-seamer at 94.6 MPH, but he has only worked in the latter 3.8% of the time for now.
We have high hopes for Ginn this season, while we are still skeptical of Holmes until he can return to his old strikeout rates. We would not go so far as to say that the Mets should not be favored here, but our model only has them winning 54% of the time (-117). Thus, we are betting on the Athletics at a seemingly inflated price.
THE PICK
Athletics +134 at Bet105
After finishing NCAAB on an 11-0 run including 8-0 in the NCAA Tournament with our write-ups, we now reset all records as we transition to MLB. We kick things off on Friday with a play on A’s vs. Mets from Citi Field.
The Athletics vs. New York Mets
Friday, April 10th – 7:10pm ET
We have what we feel is one of our favorite kinds of matchups on Friday with an undervalued pitcher facing an overvalued pitcher. We are backing J.T. Ginn and the Athletics as underdogs when they visit Clay Holmes and the Mets in Citi Field.
Lack of Strikeouts Hurts Holmes
The Mets transitioned Holmes into a starter last season after he recorded 30 saves as a closer for the crosstown Yankees two years ago, and the transition was mostly successful. After all, he went 12-8 with a 3.53 ERA with his arm withstanding 165.2 innings in his new role. However, his peripherals indicate that he was not as good as that ERA.
For starters, his xFIP was noticeably higher at 4.25, with the main culprit being a modest K/BB ratio of 7.01/3.59 per nine innings. Keep in mind that Clay had averaged at least one strikeout per inning in each of his previous four seasons, and also that the walk rate was a career high.
Well, he is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in the early going this year, but his peripherals have basically mirrored his numbers from last year so far, albeit through only 12.1 innings. His K-Rate stands at an even lower 6.39/9 while the walk rate is at 3.55/9. He has been lucky to pitch around traffic on the basepaths by scoring very highly in the Luck Stats, with an unsustainable .176 BABIP allowed and a 94.3% strand rate.
Better Velocity from Wind-Up for Ginn
Ginn is the opposite of Holmes in that he was better than his frontline stats last year, which had him at 4-7 with a bloated 5.08 ERA. He actually had a good 3.57 xFIP over 90.1 innings, with the ERA getting inflated by a .314 BABIP. He also had one of our favorite combinations for any pitcher, which is a good strikeout rate (9.86/9) and groundball rate (52.7%).
As if that was not encouraging enough for expected improvement in 2026, T.J. improved his velocity this year by pitching from a wind-up after throwing exclusively from the stretch last year, and he has added a fifth pitch (4-seam fastball) to an already vast arsenal. This will be his first start of the year after posting a nondescript 5.14 ERA and 4.47 xFIP in seven innings of relief, but the spike in velocity is encouraging.
He has added speed to all four of his pitches from last season, most notably with a sinker that is heavier than ever at 95.0 MPH (93.5 MPH last year). That is faster than his new 4-seamer at 94.6 MPH, but he has only worked in the latter 3.8% of the time for now.
We have high hopes for Ginn this season, while we are still skeptical of Holmes until he can return to his old strikeout rates. We would not go so far as to say that the Mets should not be favored here, but our model only has them winning 54% of the time (-117). Thus, we are betting on the Athletics at a seemingly inflated price.
THE PICK
Athletics +134 at Bet105
