Men's NCAA tournament first-round best bets and futures

[Wagerallsports]

Men's NCAA tournament first-round best bets and futures​

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March Madness is alive and well, which means plenty of betting opportunities. Our experts -- ESPN analysts Doug Kezirian, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Joe Fortenbaugh, Dalen Cuff, Erin Dolan and Anita Marks -- are here to give their best bets for the first two days of first-round action and offer tournament futures.

Best bets for Thursday​

6. Colorado State Rams (-2.5, 139.5) vs. 11. Michigan Wolverines​

South Region: 12:15 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

Stanford Steve's pick: Michigan -2.5

No conference needs some success in the tournament more than the Mountain West. My fear is it's not a great matchup for the Rams. With the size Michigan brings to the table in sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-foot-1) and freshman big man Moussa Diabate (6-foot-10), I really like the Wolverines' ability to control this game inside and out. That, along with the idea of Michigan getting another life with an NCAA tourney berth and the game being in Indianapolis, I like the Maize and Blue's chances to win and cover this game.

4. Providence Friars (-2, 149.5) vs. 13. South Dakota State Jackrabbits​

Midwest Region: 12:40 p.m. ET, KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Fortenbaugh's pick: South Dakota State +2

Providence limps into the dance after getting thumped by 27 points against Creighton in the Big East tournament semis despite closing as a 2.5-point favorite. Waiting for the Friars in the opening round is as dangerous a 13-seed as you'll find in South Dakota State, which leads the country in 3-point shooting at an absolutely absurd 44.2% clip. The Jackrabbits rank 12th in offensive efficiency and have won 21 straight games, so I guess you could say they're hot right now.

Marks' pick: South Dakota State +2

South Dakota State's offense is fantastic. The Jackrabbits shoot 44.2% from beyond the arc, rank 12th in offensive efficiency, have won 21 straight and have one of the best players in the country in Baylor Scheierman (16.2 PPG). Noah Freidel could potentially return for the tourney, which would make the Jackrabbits even more dangerous. Providence has had lady luck on its side, but this is where that comes to an end. The Friars don't shoot many 3s and will be outgunned from downtown.

5. Iowa Hawkeyes (-10.5, 150.5) vs. 12. Richmond Spiders​

Midwest Region: 3:10 p.m. ET, KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Cuff's pick: Iowa team total over 80.5

Keegan Murray and the Hawkeyes are the flavor of the month after their run to the Big 10 tourney title, but I'm not sold that they get to the Final Four, as many are. But we know they can put up points, as they rank second in offensive efficiency and fourth in points per game. Richmond had to win the Atlantic 10 tourney to get in the dance, and they did just that against top-seed Davidson to clinch their first NCAA tournament berth in 11 years. I did three Richmond games during A10 play, and I think the Spiders, a veteran squad loaded with fifth- and sixth-year guys, are really well-coached by Chris Mooney, but defensively they just aren't very good. They were ninth in A10 play in defensive efficiency in a league that didn't have dynamic offenses. They don't turn it over, but they struggle to make shots (49.6% effective FG percentage, ninth in A10 play). If you can't make shots, it's hard to control tempo against an explosive Hawkeyes offense. The back-door cover is open at 10.5, but I think Iowa gets into the 80s and pays us out.

4. Arkansas Razorbacks (-5, 139.5) vs. 13. Vermont Catamounts​

West Region: 9:20 p.m. ET, KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Marks' picks: Vermont +5, Vermont money line (+180)

Vermont comes in on an eight-game win streak and matches up well against Arkansas. I believe the Catamounts can win outright. Arkansas enters the tourney off a disappointing 18-point loss to Texas A&M in the SEC tournament semifinals. Vermont shot 60% from 2-point range and 40% from 3-point range in conference play and has a roster stacked with seniors.

7. Murray State Racers (-1, 137) vs. 10. San Francisco Dons​

East Region: 9:40 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

The Bear's pick: San Francisco +1

The Racers are going to be a super public pick, and there's some pressure on them here. If they win, they get a dream matchup with Kentucky. But they need to be very careful here. I'll go with the Dons, as that backcourt of Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz is legit. It's a shame the committee matched these two against each other and didn't flip a team from the Miami/USC game to give us two matchups between a mid-major and a Power Five team, opposed to sending either USF or Murray home out of the gate.

4. UCLA Bruins (-14, 128.5) vs. 13 Akron Zips​

East Region: 9:50 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland

Stanford Steve's pick: Akron +14

As much as I think UCLA has a chance to make another Final Four run, I don't like the idea of the Bruins covering double-digits in their first-round game against Akron. The Zips are on an eight-game win streak and won the MAC tournament. They have four guys who average double-figures in scoring per game, led by Ali Ali (14.2 PPG). I have liked what I've seen from the Zips all season, which started with a one-point loss at Ohio State. They won't be wowed by the circumstances. I'll take the points.

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[Wagerallsports]

Best bets for Friday​

7. Ohio State Buckeyes (Even, 132.5) vs. 10. Loyola Chicago Ramblers​

South Region: 12:15 p.m. ET, PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

The Bear's pick: Ohio State pick 'em

Everyone's favorite bracket buster is back. Loyola nearly beat Michigan State earlier this year. The Buckeyes have been in a complete free fall late in the year, but they might get Kyle Young back. And if he plays, that's a total game-changer. E.J. Liddell is still the best player on the floor, and the escape from Big Ten play could be a good thing for the Buckeyes.

Marks' pick: Loyola pick 'em

Loyola comes in off four straight wins overall and a Missouri Valley tournament championship where it allowed only 50 PPG over the three games. Meanwhile, OSU stumbles in losers of four of five and could be without Young due to a concussion. The Buckeyes' defense is their weakness (10th in the Big Ten), and they will have their hands full against a Ramblers offense that makes a lot of 3-pointers.

Dolan's pick Loyola pick 'em

Ohio State has been wildly inconsistent. Momentum is a big part of the dance, and the Buckeyes have lost four of their past five games. I'm sure we all remember them losing to Oral Roberts last year in the first round. Yikes. There is one main thing for Loyola Chicago -- and no, I'm not talking about Sister Jean -- that helps the Ramblers win this game, and that is their experience in the tournament (four of their top six scorers are seniors).

3. Purdue Boilermakers (-16, 143) vs. 14. Yale Bulldogs​

East Region: 2 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee

Fortenbaugh's pick: Yale +16

Purdue has been sloppy down the stretch, going 3-3 over its final six games with each of those losses coming as the favorite. This is a program known for its explosive offense, but don't lose sight of the fact that the Boilermakers play average defense and struggle tremendously from the charity stripe (70.3%, 223rd in NCAA). Yale has won 11 of its past 13 games and has held the opposition to a 30.4% conversion rate from the 3-point line this season, which ranks 34th in college hoops. That's a big plus when facing a 3-point juggernaut like Purdue.

7. USC Trojans (-1.5, 139.5) vs. 10. Miami Hurricanes​

Midwest Region: 3:10 p.m. ET, Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, S.C.

The Bear's pick: Miami +1.5

I expect Miami's guard heavy, 5-out perimeter offense to give USC some problems. Sure, the Trojans have an advantage on the interior, but if the Canes can hit 3-pointers and draw USC out from the basket, it's a huge win. The Trojans are such a dilemma. They look great at times, but then you see them melt down in end-of-game situations, miss free throws and lose twice to Stanford. "Coach L" will have Miami ready here.

4. Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5, 135.5) vs. 13. Chattanooga Mocs​

South Region: 6:50 p.m. ET, PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Cuff's pick: Chattanooga +7.5

I like this Illinois team, so this isn't a slight on it as much as it is more of a nod to a very good Chattanooga team. The Mocs have great guard play between Malachi Smith (Southern Conference Player of the Year) and David Jean-Baptiste (made famous for his Champ Week buzzer-beater against Furman), who can make plays and make things difficult for the very good Illinois guards. And they have size to deal with the massive man that is Kofi Cockburn in Silvio De Sousa, the Kansas transfer. I always like when mid-majors have high-major transfers, and De Sousa, albeit embattled at KU for different recruiting violation issues he was involved in, has a lot of high-level game experience. I think the Mocs keep it tight but ultimately fall to the Illini.

Marks' pick: Chattanooga +7.5

The Mocs have not one, but two great shooters in Jean-Baptiste and Smith, and they defend the paint well and are excellent on the free throw line. They are also great in transition and can get hot from behind the arc. Chattanooga will be too much for Illinois to handle.

2. Duke Blue Devils (-18.5, 46.5) vs. 15. CSU Fullerton Titans​

West Region: 7:10 p.m. ET, Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, S.C.

Stanford Steve's pick: Fullerton +18.5

Duke ranks 224th in defensive efficiency over its past four games. The Blue Devils have clearly lost any interest in trying or attempting to guard the basketball. Now you factor that in against a team that has a chance to end the Blue Devils' season, a team that will be asked questions only about its opponent and the head coach it's going against. I think the Titans are in a great spot to score with the Blue Devils and will score enough to give Duke fits well into the second half. I'll take the points.

6. LSU Tigers (-4, 127.5) vs. 11. Iowa State Cyclones​

Midwest Region: 7:20 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee

Kezirian's picks: Under 127.5, first half under 59.5

This has all the makings of a rock fight. According to KenPom.com's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, LSU ranks fifth and the Cyclones rank 10th. Additionally, the Tigers' offense ranks 89th in offense, and the Iowa State offense somehow ranks 151st. I just do not anticipate how either offense goes on many runs. Plus, given the threat of ridiculous fouling at the end of a season-ending game, I will also play the first-half under.

5. Houston Cougars (-8.5, 136) vs. UAB Blazers​

South Region: 9:20 p.m. ET, PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

The Bear's pick: Houston -8.5

The UAB offense will certainly be up against it here. This a big step up from what the Blazers faced in Conference USA. Houston is such an aggressive team, and odds are the Blazers won't get many second chances with Josh Carlton and Fabian White Jr. crashing the glass. UAB has lost to West Virginia, South Carolina and San Francisco in close games this year. But if the Blazers struggled to score against them (63, 61 and 59 points in those games), it leads me to believe Houston should win comfortably.

7. Michigan State Spartans (-1, 140.5) vs. 13. Davidson Wildcats​

West Region: 9:40 p.m. ET, Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, S.C.

Fortenbaugh's pick: Davidson +1

I'm not buying into the "Michigan State Mystic," especially after watching Sparty drop 10 of its final 18 games. Take note that Tom Izzo's crew hasn't won a true road game since defeating Maryland by two points on Feb. 1. Davidson is no joke, having concluded its current campaign ranked 11th in the country in offensive efficiency, eighth in 3-point shooting and 49th in free throw shooting. The Wildcats also rank in the top 10 in defensive rebounding, which is always important when facing the Spartans in March.

Stanford Steve's pick: Michigan State -1

I don't think this Michigan State team is as good as teams Tom Izzo has had in the past, and I don't think this Davidson team is as good as Bob McKillop has had in the past. I do like the advantage Sparty has on the defensive end with their physical ability and rebounding ability. That is where I believe the Spartans have the biggest advantage, on the offensive glass. Their ability to get second and third shots will be the difference in the game. I'll take Michigan State.

3. Wisconsin Badgers (-7.5, 139) vs. 14. Colgate Raiders​

Midwest Region: 9:50 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee

Cuff's pick: Over 139

This Colgate team can flat out shoot, ranking 11th in the nation in effective FG percentage at 55.9%, and it makes 9.9 3-pointers per game (12th in the nation). The Raiders return a nucleus from last year's tournament team that gave Arkansas quite a run in the 14-3 matchup that was much closer than the final 17-point score line shows. The Badgers' defense is solid, but I think Colgate will get and make open shots. That said, the Raiders are below average defensively. That doesn't bode well against an efficient and effective Badgers squad led by first-team All-American-to-be Johnny Davis, whose brutal Big 10 tournament showing (3-of-14 FG) was an aberration, not the norm. I expect a decent pace and points; I'm not sure the Raiders can keep it within the number, but I love the over.

Marks' pick: Colgate +7.5

Wisconsin should not be a 3-seed and will be in over its head, especially against a 3-point shooting team like Colgate. The Raiders have won 15 straight games and 19 of their past 20 and are shooting over 40% from downtown. The Badgers are not a good shooting team and sport the worst 3-point percentage in the Big Ten. They should get run off the court by Colgate.

Dolan's pick: Colgate +7.5

Yes, it's not necessarily against the best competition, but Colgate comes into this matchup with 15 straight wins. The Raiders now face a Wisconsin team that enters this tournament on a two-game skid, having lost to Nebraska to end the regular season and then falling to Michigan State in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. Although the Badgers went 24-7 overall, tied Illinois for the best record in the Big Ten (15-5) and are good away from home, I just see Colgate giving them a run for their money, especially if the Raiders get hot from beyond the arc. The Raiders are second in the nation in 3-point shooting at 40.3% and have five starters who average double-digits in scoring.

8. Seton Hall Pirates vs. 9 TCU Horned Frogs (-1, 130)​

South Region: 9:57 p.m. ET, Viejas Arena, San Diego

The Bear's pick: TCU -1

Seton Hall is maddening to watch. The Pirates take -- and miss -- a ton of shots and seemingly turn the ball over at inopportune times. There's no denying their talent and ability to control the glass, but now they face a team that has been even better than them on the offensive glass and plays even better defense than them. I like the way the Horned Frogs finished the year, beating Kansas, Texas and Texas Tech -- and nearly beating Kansas in Lawrence as well. It's a coin-flip game -- as many of these first-round games are -- but I'll back TCU.

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[Wagerallsports]

Futures​

Note: Odds entering tournament

Arizona Wildcats +160 to make Final Four​

Cuff: I've been on this team since January and am not jumping off now, despite Kerr Kriisa being dinged up. The Wildcats to me are the best team in the country and are top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They play at pace, can score in various ways and have great length and versatility on the defensive end. And I love their path to the Final Four. I don't think they get challenged in the first weekend. In the Sweet 16, they'll likely see an Illinois team they already beat on the road. In the Elite 8, they likely will meet a Tennessee team they almost beat on the road after playing their worst first half of the season. At plus money, I like the favorite to get to New Orleans.

Kentucky Wildcats +275 to make Final Four​

Cuff: I just love UK's path. It has the most favorable second-round matchup with either Murray State or USF. Both are quality teams, but I don't think either present the same challenge other teams will face in potential second-round matchups in the East. Oscar Tshiebwe is a future Wooden Award winner on my ballot, and there are a number of guys who have stepped up throughout the year offensively. I'm not sure Purdue makes it to the Sweet 16. On the top half of the bracket, I don't think UCLA can match the physicality of the Wildcats, and a Baylor team not at full strength doesn't have enough to outlast Kentucky.

Tennessee Volunteers +400 to make Final Four​

Dolan: The Vols come into the tournament with two important things working in their favor: momentum and elite defense. Tennessee ranks third in adjusted defensive rating on KenPom and has won 12 of its past 13. During that same stretch, the Vols impressively beat Kentucky (twice), Auburn and won the SEC tournament. The worst-case scenario for them is facing a Villanova team that has been dealing with injuries or an Arizona team they already beat this season.

Texas Tech Red Raiders +550 to make Final Four​

Cuff: Texas Tech is No. 1 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, and it might be cliché to say, but that's gonna travel. But more importantly, the Red Raiders greatly improved on the offensive end since a December loss in Phoenix to Gonzaga, a team they'll have to beat in the Elite Eight for this ticket to cash. Injuries throughout the year to Terrence Shannon and Kevin McCullar might have actually helped the Red Raiders in the long run. Bryson Williams, Kevin Obanor, Adonis Arms and others have emerged into more effective and productive offensive roles. The Big 12 battle-tested Red Raiders are now at full strength, and if officials don't call this tournament really tight, this physical group can make a run. It will have to run through Duke in the Sweet 16 at a big value price.

UCLA Bruins +400 to make Final Four​

Marks: UCLA has had a terrific season, winning games against contenders, even without their best players on the court because of injuries. The Bruins are back at full strength, rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and have a lot of tourney experience on their roster. I have UCLA upsetting Baylor, which is not at full strength, and beating either Kentucky or Virginia Tech to make it to the Final Four.

Gonzaga Bulldogs +325 to win national title​

Marks: The Bulldogs have made it to the final in two of their past four tournaments, so they have the experience. They rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Zags also have the size to dominate in the paint, shoot 38% from 3-point range and have arguably the best player in the country in uniform in Chet Holmgren. Their toughest challenges will be Texas Tech (from their region in the West) and UCLA (in the East Region) to get to the final, then they would potentially contend with Kansas, Tennessee or Villanova to cut down the nets.

Kentucky Wildcats to win East (+275) and

UCLA Bruins to win East (+400)​

Fallica: It's been 15 years since a reigning national champion even got past the Sweet 16 and this depleted version of Baylor is going to have a hard time doing that. I'd love a prop Kentucky and UCLA vs the field in the East, but i'll have to settle for playing the Cats and Bruins at plus prices and hope one gets to New Orleans.

Tennessee Volunteers to win South (+400) and

Houston Cougars to win South (+600)​

Fallica: I've been on the Volunteer bandwagon for a while now and it's getting quite full. Despite being under-seeded, the path to win the South is still quite doable. They would potentially need to avenge an odd loss to Villanova and then beat Arizona a second time. People seemingly have Arizona inked into the national title game, but the Cats could run into a tough matchup with Houston. Even without Marcus Sasser, who has hinted he is trying to get back, the Cougars defense could lead the team back to the Final Four.

Miami Hurricanes to win Midwest (+2200) and

USC Trojans to win Midwest (+2000)​

Fallica: If Kansas doesn't win this region, it could be anyone. I've dubbed this my "Kansas or Chaos" region. Two-seed Auburn seemingly peaked six weeks ago and has had trouble away from home lately, the three-seed is Wisconsin, which has Johnny Davis either still injured or on fumes, four-seed Providence is KenPom's luckiest team in the country. Five-seed Iowa is the trendiest of all Final Four picks. Six-seed LSU just fired its coach. There's a real chance the Miami/USC winner could find itself in the Sweet 16 at the very least, which is why I'll take a chance with both longshots.

Texas Tech Red Raiders to win West (+550) and

Memphis Tigers to win West (+3000)​

Fallica: I keep having flashbacks to last year's championship game and what Baylor was able to do to Gonzaga, both physically and athletically. Memphis could potentially do similar things. The Tigers could also turn it over 25 times and Mark Few's team could score 90. But at 30-1, I'll take a chance. A more realistic team to win the region is Texas Tech, which would be a horrible matchup for Duke in the Sweet 16 and could beat the Bulldogs for the second time in four years to reach the Final Four.

Texas Tech Red Raiders to reach Sweet 16 -180​

Fallica: The Red Raiders got a pretty nice potential path to the Sweet 16 as they are a 15-point favorite over Montana State and then would get one of Alabama, Notre Dame or Rutgers, where Tech would be a decent size favorite to move on.

Kansas Jayhawks to have more wins than

Baylor Bears -140​

Fallica: I'd be very surprised if the Jayhawks didn't find themselves in the Elite 8 based on their draw. I don't see Baylor winning three games with their potential path.

 

[Tanko]

There's a whole lotta dogs picked by the ESPN "experts".