Men Let's all play Navy +7.5

[Roy Bacon]

Let's commit.

Army has not scored more than 17 points in this matchup over the last 3 meetings. This Navy team has steadily improved. Navy played well down the stretch except against Notre Dame. They lost to Cinci by 8 and beat Temple by 24 to close things out.

 

[carolinakid]

the under is imo the play in this one gl

 

[Roy Bacon]

The most scored in this contest the last 3 years is a total of 27. Let's see what the weather is like.

 

[carolinakid]

yep i always play the under in this game each yr

 

[Oddsmaker]

Navy had a brutal schedule this year

 

[Roy Bacon]

Navy had a brutal schedule this year

Navy was just plain bad for the first 1/3 of the schedule. But they got better and played hard. Army has been solid all year. A veteran group that can play a little D.

At +7.5 an ole boy just can't play Army. If you don't like the dog then it's a pass.

 

[Seahawkharry]

Go Navy Beat Army!!

 

[RudyRuder]

im broke right now roy

 

[Wagerallsports]

I have no idea what day this game is on but I'm in LOL

 

[Oddsmaker]

Army ML hooked in with parlays on Sunday think out of the box.

 

[p-lane1]

under has cashed 15 years in a row

 

[Orbison]

under has cashed 15 years in a row

wow that's crazy

 

[GamblingmanC's]

The most scored in this contest the last 3 years is a total of 27. Let's see what the weather is like.

Rain, in the 60's

 

[RudyRuder]

so, its time for the over, right?


if i have cash, im all in over the over

 

[GamblingmanC's]

so, its time for the over, right?


if i have cash, im all in over the over

Do you like "going against the grain"?

 

[Tanko]

I'm seeing Army cover this one.
Sorry for the long write-up but I hate leaning towards the opposite side of a game that Roy picks so I thought I explain why.

The game clock is going to run and never stop....
89% of all plays for each team are rushing plays. 75-80% of the yardage gained for both teams are via rushing plays and with the rain that is expected it might be even higher. The clock will likely start and never stop except at change of possession (I'm exaggerating here - but only a little).

There will be very few possession by each team...
These two teams have the 2nd and 3rd lowest number of possessions per game out of 130 teams (10.7 and 10.9 vs NCAA avg of 12.4 with K-state the lowest at 10.1 possessions per game). This excludes any FCS opponent games. Since both teams take extended time with each possession (average 3:30 each), the total possessions for each team is likely to be slightly lower than their season averages.

If there are more possessions, they will likely not have resulted in a score since neither team is a big play team (only ~1 out of every 30 drives for these teams that result in a TD or FG occurs within the first set of downs for either team).

I'm estimating around 8 possessions for each team in this game.

Back of envelope Army data crunching using 2021 season data:
44% of possessions ended up in TD
7% ended up in made FG
31% ended up with a punt

Assuming 8 possessions: (8 x 44% result in TDs x 7 pts) + (8 x 7% result in FG x 3 pts) = 26.5 pts for Army

Back of envelope Navy data crunching using 2021 season data:
21% of possessions ended up in TD
13% ended up in made FG
45% ended up with a punt

Assuming 8 possessions: (8 x 21% result in TDs x 7 pts) + (8 x 13% result in FG x 3 pts) = 15 pts for Navy

Turnovers for both teams are the same for the season--> 3 INTs, 5 fumbles lost for each team so the turnover impact on paper is a wash.

The delta is 27-15 = 12 pts for Army so I'm leaning towards Army covering the -7.

The O/U of 35 looks about right to me. My 41estimate is a little closer to the line so I'll likely stay away from that bet.

 

[Roy Bacon]

Great capping Tanko! Love the back of the envelope touch! Fugging awesome.

My critic would be to throw out the first 5 games. It's a long season. navy was horrible the first few games. And then strength of schedule. Navy is battle hardened and improved.

Army's last 4 games involved 2 teams that were both 1-11. The other two were AF and Liberty

Navy played East Carolina, Notre Dame and Cincinati

Army made me good money and survived that AF game...which I appreciated. I just love a TD in a low scoring game.

 

[Tanko]

Using the last 5 games of data for each team (excluding the Army/Bucknell game), it tightens it up a little to ~9-9.5 point Army advantage. So there's not as much cushion as the season total data shows for Army.

Army games used: Liberty, Mass, Air Force, Wake, Wisc
Navy games used: Temple, E. Carol, ND, Tulsa, Cincy

Good luck with your bets this week.

 

[Roy Bacon]

Using the last 5 games of data for each team (excluding the Army/Bucknell game), it tightens it up a little to ~9-9.5 point Army advantage. So there's not as much cushion as the season total data shows for Army.

Army games used: Liberty, Mass, Air Force, Wake, Wisc
Navy games used: Temple, E. Carol, ND, Tulsa, Cincy

Good luck with your bets this week.

Good capping amigo!

Makes me want to pull Army to see if it could land right on your 9 number. Then I'd sponsor you and we'd take over the world. Or maybe just cap another game.

 

[Bettor Days]

Is Navy still the play?