JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[KVB]

I didn’t even know Portland had a team. I don’t really watch the WNBA. I know what’s going on, but not much interest.

Made the right decision by passing on that UNDER trade.

That's why we excercise patience.

 

[theriver55]

Made the right decision by passing on that UNDER trade.

That's why we excercise patience.

had UN 180.5 thought I was good with a minute and change left. Glad it was small change.

 

[BigJay]

I know what’s going on

 

[Wagerallsports]

You thinking we might see 2 close back & forth games tonight in the NBA which gives us trading opportunities?

 

[KVB]

You thinking we might see 2 close back & forth games tonight in the NBA which gives us trading opportunities?

I don't see how close back and forth games provide trading opportunities.

I can see some big scalps there, but .45 cents to .55 cents in NBA is aggressive and will take multiple strikes to get to a goal.

Don't get me wrong, .40 to .60 is a 50% move but to get we can't have close, we need a lead to build.

The favorite making a run will inflate the market and if the dog takes trhe lead there will be lag int time before the favorite gets cheaper, or the dog builds a big lead.

So that back and forth is good, but we don't really want it to be a close game just hovering aroung .50 cents.

It's good to take a position if you're just staying long a team, nibbling as they are cheaper, dropping into the 40s.

 

[KVB]

There also needs to be a reason for me to think some kind of push will happen so I can for a trading plan.

I think the first game has a much better chance of being tradeable, but it's hard to say the trade at this point. The NBA has a way of creating uncertainty and until the game is underway, sometimes the Lab can't lean one way or the other.

 

[KVB]

One final thing about the NBA and sports in general. It's like a college class. The season is the semester and the midterms are the playoffs with the championship being the finals.

I was busy killing NCAA basketball and during that time I was not attending class for the NBA. It can be tough to take the midterm and even the final when you haven't been to class all season.

It doesn't mean I can't seek low hanging fruit, but there may be a better use of my time.

My focus now is the WNBA.

 

[jjgold]

I’m surprised you’re not on Polymarket. We can’t play there out in Nevada. You can use the website with a VPN and coins.

 

[KVB]

The Lab likes Phoenix tonight inthe WNBA.

I have orders into a crowded book.

 

[KVB]

I’m surprised you’re not on Polymarket. We can’t play there out in Nevada. You can use the website with a VPN and coins.

I have a presence on all exchanges. With the WNBA adding outs can help with options and alt lines.

There are others too, like DK.

Tonight the options are similar and the orderbook is actually a little thinner on Poly.

The way I trade, like during the fall and winter, Kalshi is preferred because of the fee structure. Polymarket used to tax a 2% but I can usually do better the I work the limit orders.

Now it's a better structure.

Polymarket can be cheaper but the options were less during Hoops. I expect the same during Football.

 

[KVB]

Early on there were polymarket trades in this thread, and I considered it yesterday.

 

[KVB]

So basically there were more alt options to calculate at Kalshi than Polymarket during basketball.

That's why there was more trading on Kalshi earlier this year.

 

[KVB]

I’m surprised you’re not on Polymarket. We can’t play there out in Nevada. You can use the website with a VPN and coins.

Are you using the VPN?

What else do you use you USDC for?

 

[KVB]

I have to be honest, I could probably use Poly a lot more during the summertime.

And who knows in the fall.

 

[Wagerallsports]

My focus now is the WNBA.

Totally understandable

 

[KVB]

The Lab thinks the Trader should take a look at LV/CONN and if the LIVE line strays too far from the LV -14.5 it will migrate back.

The Trader asks, "what's too far?"

 

[KVB]

The Lab thinks the Trader should take a look at LV/CONN and if the LIVE line strays too far from the LV -14.5 it will migrate back.

The Trader asks, "what's too far?"

The Lab says "You'll know"

Problem is connecticut sucks.

 

[KVB]

You thinking we might see 2 close back & forth games tonight in the NBA which gives us trading opportunities?

Detroit took a little lead, Clev -4.5 was down in the very low 40s and now back to 49

That's a quick 22.5% and if they take a little lead it could get to 60 which is almost 50%

So some room and opportunity to trade that on the spread, the ml not so volatile during that time.

 

[KVB]

Here's the updated record with that last Indiana ml, with links to each play.

Pushing +10 or +$1000 per $100 bet.

I am on a streak of 6 straight trades that that I did not close and expired at 1.00.

The Lab continues to do good work, the Trade is gaining confidence...

Date Issue Bought Sold % Profit Per $100 3-May TEX +1.5 0.72 0 -1 -100 . TEX +1.5 0.4 0 -1 -100 . TEX +1.5 0.23 0 -1 -100 9-May Indiana ML 0.18 0.4 1.22 122.22 . Kopylov 0.52 0.32 -0.38 -38.46 . Kopylov 0.7 1 0.43 42.86 . ARI ML 0.5 1 1.00 100.00 . Miller/Gordon GTD NO 0.49 1 1.04 104.08 . ARI + 1.5 0.55 1 0.82 81.82 10-May ANA ML 0.7 1 0.43 42.86 13-May Indiana ML 0.57 1 0.75 75.44 . May Total . . . 230.81 . April . . . 752.81 . Total [td] 983.62​

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[KVB]

The Lab thinks the Trader should take a look at LV/CONN and if the LIVE line strays too far from the LV -14.5 it will migrate back.

The Trader asks, "what's too far?"

The Lab says "You'll know"

Problem is connecticut sucks.

I was afraid of this.

The LV -14.5 is getting expensive as Vegas takes the lead.

The problem is relying on Connecticut who sucks, to come back.

I think this +14.5 at about .35 cents is something to watch.

"Sometimes the best bets to make are the hardest bets to make."

--KVB