JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[KVB]

Pretty good price on Flagg for ROY at Kalshi in comparison to the books

Same as above lol

If I buy this and get it wrong. I’ll be pissed.

It seems like one big night and the odds change.

 

[Wagerallsports]

There’s like a 15 minute one too

Sometimes I’ve watched it and I feel like I can trade it, but if I buy into that and get it wrong, I’ll be pissed

lol

I toyed with & observed the hourly all day every day for a few weeks & I’m convinced you have to be inside the loop with the big dogs

Too many times I have seen it launch or catapult up or down in the last couple of minutes

 

[Wagerallsports]

Same as above lol

If I buy this and get it wrong. I’ll be pissed.

It seems like one big night and the odds change.

Currently -200

-275 to -350 everywhere else

 

[KVB]

Currently -200

-275 to -350 everywhere else

There are some small arb chances there. If you can get into Flagg at less than -200 you can take Kon as a dog at some spots.

Key is to get in without fees, or low fees with a limit order. But yeah, I can see some small arbs out there.

BOL offering Kon @ +190, just below those arb setups, like BM at +180, but DK is offering +225 for him, if you can get down there.

Seems like un-regulated is just offering a little less on Kneuppal that onshore.

Can almost get them both at Kalshi for a small profit at .65 for Flagg and .34 for Kon, but fees will eat into that.

If you can get .64 and .33 then it looks even sweeter.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Kon +226 mybookie (just throwing it out there)

 

[Wagerallsports]

Pretty sure kon was over 200 earlier on Kalshi cauz coop was -280ish

Of course we know at Kalshi that substantial move can have more to do with someone balancing their action taken in than actual line movement & numbers elsewhere (or am I wrong here??)

 

[KVB]

Of course we know at Kalshi that substantial move can have more to do with someone balancing their action taken in than actual line movement & numbers elsewhere (or am I wrong here??)

That can be right.

Can be hard to tell the reason for the move, in general I would think it would be towards efficiency across all the markets.

But these exchanges can be a little weird. Just volume coming in on one side doesn't necessarily move price, it's like someone keeps providing liquidity so it doesn't move or if it does it comes back quick.

 

[KVB]

I had .46 cent orders in on Si Woo Kim Top20, they finally all filled but I never saw this trade at .46 cents at the market. It's still .47 with the sell at .46.

So someone had to buy the "NO" at .54 cents even though the market is sitting at .53 cents (.47 cent YES).

So in this picture I would have been sitting on the green Yes side at .46 cents. I could immediately get in at .47 cents, but I want to save commission, so I sit on that .46 set of orders. That's the same as someone selling the NO at .54 cents (left side of picture in red).

Yesterday, mostly, and some overnight somebody traded with me and sold NO at .54 cents to me buying YES at.46 cents.

Yet still today, the market is .47 cents.

Here's the order book, then I'll show the graph...

 

[KVB]

Here's the chart.

You can see a few times in the last day it dropped to .46 cents, that's where I got in, with fills at each of those drops.

I had the last of my orders filling this morning so the market dips, but comes right back.

This is a day chart, I posted about 7PM yesterday when I determined I had enough to post, on the litte dip around 6:04 pm on the chart.

For all I knew I would have to move to .47 cents to get all the contracts...

So I was still getting filled at about 5:30 AM this morning and if you look at the LIVE chart, you can see another dip around 10 AM. My final 24 contracts were filled then.

Yet it jumped back to .47 cents.

 

[KVB]

Sometimes I mention putting in an order low in hopes of a liqudity sweep.

That's what we saw. Someone came in took the lower order in some sweeps, but it went back up.

That's better than my orders being filled because the price is just dropping. In that case I could be catching a falling knife.

Feels a little better that I got swept up but the price never really dropped.

But what if it went up to .48 cents moving away from me? I would have to raise my order to .47 and if it's running up, then I have to go to market if I want in, paying the vig.

As it stands, Min Woo Lee at DK is even money for Top 20, but I have him at +117, mostly because I paid 0 commission on the trades.

Whoever sold me the no, paid the commission.

Is that rebalancing? Does somemone know something I don't? Did I get lucky on my timing?

Hard to know.

 

[jjgold]

NOT BETTING
LEARNING HACKING

 

[Wagerallsports]

Scalping opportunities

Flagg now -168 at Kalshi

Knueppel:
Mybookie +226
Hard Rock +225
Betonline +190
Justbet +180
Heritage +174


I know fees come into play but these are some numbers I see currently

 

[KVB]

Scalping opportunities

Flagg now -168 at Kalshi

Knueppel:
Mybookie - +226
Hard Rock +225
Betonline +190
Justbet +180
Heritage +174


I know fees come into play but these are some numbers I see currently

Actually, with the American prices it looks like the fees are built in. If go to market at the .61 (converts to cents (converts to -156) right now I will pay 62.67 as a 1.67 fee is added.

62.67 converts to -168.

If I click the -168 to buy it shows the price of 62.67. So the fee is built in there.

I don't really like the orderbook when it shows American odds...

 

[KVB]

I messed around in dark mode for that screenshot.

lol

 

[jjgold]

I’ve had a lot of trouble in the API converting the money lines. It’s tricky because AI can’t read the code right

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

I’ve had a lot of trouble in the API converting the money lines. It’s tricky because AI can’t read the code right

AI can be dumb, JJ.

It’s your job to make it smarter. Try talking to it like it’s a fifth grader.

 

[KVB]

I was considering Patrick Reed Top20 but this sumbitch moved from .37 to .40.

Might try to grab him

 

[KVB]

Try talking to it like it’s a fifth grader.

That doesn't even work for some posters.

What if it tells Gold that the mechanism doesn't matter?

He's fukked then.

 

[KVB]

I have picked up ATH ml @ .32 cents.

An MLB play. Tied 2-2 middle of the 6th.

 

[KVB]

Cinci moneyline is on the radar.

They could tie it up here and they're only 7 cents.